Amillex Daily Market Review | Early Signs of Diplomatic Progress as Gold Battles Around the 4,500 Level

25 March 2026 — Gold markets saw another bout of sharp volatility during the Asian session. After a steep correction of over 20% previously, spot gold has stabilized and rebounded, reclaiming the $4,500 level.

The key driver behind this move is a subtle shift in geopolitical dynamics. Positive signals have emerged from high-level US–Iran talks reportedly facilitated by Turkey, Egypt, and Pakistan. Markets are now closely watching the next 48 hours for a potential ceasefire agreement.

On the back of this easing tension, US crude oil dropped nearly 4% intraday to around $88.80. The sharp decline in energy prices has weakened gold’s inflation-hedging demand, but at the same time, improved risk sentiment has allowed gold some room for a technical rebound.

Multi-Asset Market Overview & Fundamentals

1. 米国株式

インデックスパフォーマンス

ダウ・ジョーンズ（DJI）： 46,124.06 (-0.18%)
The index continues to trade sideways at elevated levels, with heavyweight value stocks under pressure amid uncertainty over the rate outlook.
S&P 500（SPX）： 6,607.90 (+0.10%)
Markets are seeing ongoing rotation between growth and defensive sectors.
ナスダック100（NQ）： 24,451.00 (+0.98%)
Strength in large-cap growth names reflects a preference for earnings visibility amid shifting macro expectations.

注目の銘柄

テスラ（TSLA）： $383.03 (+0.57%)
The stock found technical support above the $380 level and is staging a recovery alongside the Nasdaq rebound.

2. 外国為替市場

米ドル指数（DXY）： 99.156 (-0.03%)
The dollar is hovering below the 100 level, with some signs of position trimming on the long side.
ユーロ/米ドル: 1.16196 (+0.11%)
The euro is edging higher on dollar softness, though gains remain limited due to uneven growth expectations within the Eurozone.
米ドル/円: 158.802 (+0.08%)
The pair remains elevated near 158, with markets wary of potential intervention by the Bank of Japan to curb excessive yen weakness.

3. 貴金属・コモディティ

貴金属

金（XAU/USD）： ~$4,541.56 (+1.50%)
A combination of geopolitical premium and renewed safe-haven demand is driving a strong upward move.
銀（XAG/USD）： $72.99 (+2.46%)
Silver is showing higher beta and catching up due to its industrial demand component, reinforcing the broader hard-asset rally.

商品

原油（WTI）： $87.90 (-1.11%)
Oil is pulling back on softer demand expectations, even as gold and silver rally—highlighting a divergence within commodities as markets reprice inflation vs. growth risks.

4. Crypto & Macro Dynamics

ビットコイン（BTC）： $70,587 (+0.10%)
BTC remains range-bound above $70K, behaving more like a liquidity-sensitive risk asset than a safe haven at this stage.
イーサリアム（ETH）： $2,155.10 (-0.03%)
ETH continues to underperform both Bitcoin and gold, suggesting capital is favoring clearer inflation hedges in the current macro environment.

5. Key Events to Watch