November 14, 2025 — U.S. equities declined across the board on Thursday, with the Nasdaq falling more than 1.6%. Spot gold broke above $4,210, marking its highest level since October 21. Oil prices stabilized near $58 a barrel after sharp declines earlier in the week. The U.S. dollar weakened slightly, while Bitcoin rebounded nearly 1%. The market narrative centered around an “economic data blackout” and diverging views on Federal Reserve policy.
U.S. Equities: Tech Leads Declines, Energy the Only Bright Spot
S&P 500 fell over 1%;
Dow Jones dropped 300 points (-0.6%);
Nasdaq lost 1.69%;
Russell 2000 small-cap index fell 1.17%;
Philadelphia Semiconductor Index slumped 2.89%.
Leading decliners: Technology (-0.7%), Semiconductors (-1.2%);
Outperformer: Energy sector ETF up 0.6%, supported by firmer oil prices.
Core narrative:
“Good news priced in” — Profit-taking followed the end of the 43-day U.S. government shutdown.
Data vacuum — With key reports like Nonfarm Payrolls and CPI delayed, markets lack a clear directional catalyst.
Precious Metals: Gold Extends Winning Streak to Five Days as Safe-Haven and Rate-Cut Bets Align
Spot gold rose 0.47% to $4,210/oz, the highest since October 21;
Silver followed higher, briefly surpassing $52.5.
ドライバー:
Rate-cut expectations: Markets now price in a 68% probability of a Fed rate cut in December;
Safe-haven demand: The absence of economic data amplifies uncertainty, prompting capital inflows into gold.
Commodities: Oil Holds $58 as OPEC+ Supply Concerns Persist
WTI crude steadied around $58/barrel;
Brent crude hovered near $62.
基礎:
Short-term support: U.S. crude inventories fell by 5.2 million barrels (API data);
Long-term pressure: OPEC’s monthly report warned that potential oversupply in Q1 2024 could widen.
Institutional view: UBS noted that if OPEC+ does not deepen production cuts, oil prices could test $55.
FX & Crypto: Dollar Softens Slightly, Bitcoin Reclaims $103,000
U.S. dollar index slipped 0.1%;
EUR/USD rose to 1.1605;
USD/JPY held steady at 154.75, with intervention expectations limiting volatility;
Bitcoin gained 1% to $102,895, while Ethereum also advanced.
Key logic: Rising volatility in risk assets is pushing some investors toward safe-haven plays like the U.S. dollar and gold.
Global Equities: Asia Outperforms as Nikkei Gains 0.4%
Asia-Pacific: Nikkei 225 rose 0.4% to 51,281, TOPIX up 0.7%;
Europe: STOXX 50 flat, Germany’s DAX down 0.1%;
Capital flows: Asia benefited from renewed optimism over U.S.-China trade relations, drawing foreign inflows into tech stocks.
今日の焦点
Fed commentary: Remarks by New York Fed President John Williams — any hint at slowing balance sheet runoff could boost risk assets;
Eurozone: September industrial production data;
U.S.: EIA crude inventory report — another drawdown could lift oil toward $60 resistance;
Earnings: Walmart and Cisco (after hours), key for gauging consumer resilience and corporate IT spending trends;
