Amillex Daily Market Commentary | Full-Scale Tariff Shock Rocks Markets, Gold Smashes Through the $5,000 Barrier

January 26, 2026, U.S. equities traded in a tight range near record highs, as investors remained on edge ahead of the Federal Reserve’s first policy meeting of the new year. Risk sentiment is being squeezed from both sides by the continued resilience of the labor market and the stickiness of inflation. Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index hovered with only modest fluctuations, reflecting institutional caution as markets wait for major macro signals to crystallize. The key macro shock this round came from a sharp deterioration in geopolitical trade relations over the weekend. The U.S. government issued an exceptionally aggressive threat of 100% full tariffs on Canada via social media, directly responding to recent trade engagement between the Canadian Prime Minister and China. Driven by a surge in safe-haven demand and fluctuations in real yields, gold not only sustained last week’s powerful rally but decisively broke above the historic $5,000 per ounce milestone, surging to a peak near $5,050.

資産パフォーマンスとファンダメンタル分析

1. 米国株式市場

インデックスパフォーマンス

ダウ・ジョーンズ工業株平均: その周り 49,120 (+0.09%). Following last week’s post-Davos rebound, the Dow has entered a phase of tight consolidation at elevated levels.
S&P 500: その周り 6,892. While the energy sector continues to gain support from geopolitical tensions, broader sentiment remains capped by “Super Week” macro uncertainty.
ナスダック総合指数: その周り 25,608. Tech stocks showed mixed performance. Despite structural support from AI-driven computing demand, high-valuation segments remain vulnerable to profit-taking as the 10-year Treasury yield ticks higher.

株式ハイライト

Intel (INTC): その周り $45.08 (-17.02%). Shares plunged more than 17% in a single session after the CEO acknowledged persistent manufacturing yield issues and ongoing supply constraints. Combined with widening losses in its foundry business, investor confidence collapsed, triggering panic selling. The stock is now retesting the $42–45 key support zone.

2. 外国為替市場

米ドル指数（DXY）： その周り 97.20. The dollar found support near 98.60 and staged a mild rebound. Markets are closely watching Chair Powell’s guidance this week on the pace of rate cuts in 2026.
ユーロ/米ドル: その周り 1.1855. The pair remains capped by dovish rhetoric from ECB officials, alongside lingering concerns over long-term trade protectionism between Europe and the U.S.
米ドル/円: その周り 154.80. As risk sentiment stabilized ahead of the U.S. equity open, safe-haven demand for the yen softened.

3. 貴金属・コモディティ

貴金属

スポットゴールド（XAUUSD）： Broke decisively above the historic $5,000/oz level, reaching highs near $5,050.
スポットシルバー（XAGUSD）： その周り $106. Silver has firmly held above the $100 mark, supported by both industrial supply tightness and rising risk-aversion. Former resistance has now flipped into strong support.

商品

WTI原油: その周り $61.20 per barrel. Prices continue to probe the $60 level amid downward revisions to global demand forecasts, with weak balance maintained by expectations of energy cooperation.

4. Crypto Assets & Macro Developments

ビットコイン（BTC）： その周り $86,665. Having slipped below the $90,000 level, BTC is now searching for support near $85,000.
イーサリアム（ETH）： その周り $2,830. Fell below the key $3,000 threshold and remains relatively weak.

5. 今日の焦点