Amillex Daily Market Commentary | Weaker USD Lifts Gold to New Highs as Rate-Cut Expectations Fuel Bullish Sentiment

Jan 23, 2026 — Spot gold extended its powerful rally, holding firmly above the $4,900 psychological level and briefly touching a record high of $4,960.43/oz during early Asian trading. The move was mainly driven by continued weakness in the U.S. dollar, with the Dollar Index sliding 0.5% to 98.28, near a three-week low. Although the latest PCE Price Index showed inflation ticking up to 2.8% y/y, signaling some underlying economic resilience, it did little to dent expectations for future policy easing. Markets continue to price in a cautious Fed stance in the near term, followed by two rate cuts totaling 50 basis points in the second half of 2026. This outlook reduces the opportunity cost of holding gold, reinforcing its appeal and keeping bullish momentum intact.

資産パフォーマンスとファンダメンタル分析

1. 米国株式市場

インデックスパフォーマンス

ダウ・ジョーンズ工業株平均: 49,384.01 (+0.63%). Supported by signals of easing geopolitical tensions from the Davos Forum—particularly the fading of tariff threats related to Greenland—the Dow posted a second consecutive gain, holding firmly above the 49,000 level.
S&P 500: 6,913.35 (+0.55%). Optimism ahead of the FOMC meeting helped the index rebound modestly after earlier safe-haven flows eased.
ナスダック総合指数: 25,436.02 (+0.91%). Technology stocks led gains, with the AI sector regaining momentum amid strong discussion at the Davos Forum, triggering notable short-covering.

Stock Highlight

Tesla (TSLA): $449.36 (+4.15%). Following a 1.63% gain in the previous session, Tesla extended its rally and broke above the key $440 resistance level.

2. 外国為替市場

米ドル指数（DXY）： 98.30 (-0.41%) Easing geopolitical tensions reduced safe-haven demand, driving the dollar steadily lower from recent highs.
ユーロ/米ドル: 1.1750 (+0.56%) Benefiting from marginal improvement in U.S.–EU trade risk sentiment, the euro staged a sharp rebound after hitting multi-month lows.
米ドル/円: 158.40. As risk appetite improved, demand for the safe-haven yen weakened. The pair continues to consolidate near the 158 level, awaiting further central-bank guidance.

3. 貴金属および商品

貴金属

スポットゴールド（XAUUSD）： Around $4,950/oz (+1.61%). Positive developments from the Davos Forum prompted a rational adjustment in safe-haven premiums.
スポットシルバー（XAGUSD）： Around $95.82 (+3.44%). Despite a temporary easing in geopolitical tensions, silver showed no signs of weakness and once again pushed above the $95 historical high.

商品

WTI原油: Around $59.70/barrel (-2.14%). Geopolitical risk premiums retreated sharply.

4. Crypto Assets and Macro Dynamics

ビットコイン（BTC）： Around $89,521, slipping slightly below the $90,000 psychological level.
While some short-term capital rotated into rebounding equities, BTC continues to show solid technical support near $88,000.
イーサリアム（ETH）： Locked in a tug-of-war around the $3,000 pivot. ETH remains range-bound between $2,980–$3,050, pressured by ongoing debate over recent on-chain activity levels.

5. Today’s Focus