Amillex Daily Market Commentary｜Global Uncertainty Intensifies, Gold and Silver Surge, Risk Assets Diverge

On January 7, 2025, market attention shifted from the immediate shock of a sudden military event to deeper, long-term risks in the energy supply chain. Although the Trump administration suggested U.S. companies might take over Venezuelan oil fields, short-term relief appeared unlikely due to aging local infrastructure and OPEC+’s strict production cuts. Amid rising risk-off sentiment, gold extended its gains from the previous session, climbing about 1% to close at 4494 dollars per ounce and briefly touching 4500.27 dollars, near its December 24 high of 4549.71 dollars. Silver also strengthened, testing 81 dollars per ounce, driven by safe-haven demand and its correlation with gold.

Multi-Asset Market Performance and Fundamental Analysis

1. U.S. Equity Market

Index Performance

Dow Jones Industrial Average: +0.99%, closing at 49460, approaching the 50,000 mark.
S&P 500 Index: +0.62%, closing at 6980, reflecting cautious market sentiment amid macro events.
Nasdaq 100 Index: +0.65%, closing at 25800, supported by tech stocks, though overall appetite for further gains remains limited.

Stock Focus

Moderna (MRNA): The stock jumped nearly 11% on Tuesday following a target price upgrade from BofA Global Research, amid continued optimism in AI-related sectors lifting broader U.S. equities.

Summary: U.S. indices remain in a short-term upward consolidation, but low trading volumes and limited risk appetite suggest that market momentum will depend on upcoming employment data and policy signals.

2. Foreign Exchange Market

Dollar Index (DXY): Around 98.5, with slight upward movement.
EUR/USD: Down 0.26% to 1.169, pressured by modestly higher U.S. Treasury yields; markets anticipate the ECB will keep rates unchanged.
USD/JPY: Holding above 156.60.

Driving Logic: The currency market favors a steady-to-strong dollar, with capital flowing toward more certain assets.

3. Precious Metals and Commodities

Gold Spot (XAU/USD): Continued strength, rising about 1% to close at 4494 dollars per ounce. In the Asian session, prices hovered at elevated levels, reaching 4500.27 dollars per ounce by 07:30.
Silver Spot (XAG/USD): Surged 5.4% intraday to 80.68 dollars per ounce, breaking through key resistance.
WTI Crude Oil: U.S. futures fell about 2% to 57.13 dollars per barrel, consolidating in a low-range channel.

4. Crypto Assets

Bitcoin (BTC): Reached a high of 94,300 dollars before consolidating, currently trading around 93,000 dollars. Amid the tug-of-war between risk-off flows and the dollar, Bitcoin’s “digital gold” appeal remains in focus, with near-term support at 90,000–92,000 dollars.
XRP (XRP/USD): Surged 11.94% in a single day, reaching 2.41 dollars, becoming one of the market’s highlights and reflecting a clear short-term return of risk appetite.

5. 今日の焦点