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Amillex Daily Market Commentary: Dollar Index Breaks 99 to Eight-Month High, Silver Surges Past $50, U.S. Stocks Await Earnings Season Kickoff

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October 10, 2025 — The U.S. dollar index climbed above the 99 mark, while the yen weakened to 153 per dollar, its lowest level in eight months. Silver made history by breaking through $50/oz, and gold held firmly above $4,000. U.S. tech stocks led market gains, with NVIDIA hitting a new record high, while Ferrari plunged 13% on cautious guidance. Markets are now balancing between Fed policy expectations and easing geopolitical tensions.

Equities: Tech Stocks Support Global Indices; Nikkei Hits Record High

U.S. Markets:

Major indices closed higher — Dow +0.1%, S&P 500 +0.1%, Nasdaq +0.04%.

NVIDIA gained nearly 2%, setting a new all-time high as strong AI computing demand continues to drive the chip sector.

Ferrari fell 13% after issuing cautious forward guidance, signaling potential cooling in luxury consumption.

Asia & Europe:

Japan’s Nikkei 225 surged over 1.6% to 48,489, hitting a historic high, with SoftBank Group soaring 13% after announcing plans to acquire ABB’s robotics business.

Germany’s DAX rose 0.3% to a record high, supported by strong M&A activity in industrial stocks.

Market Drivers:

Expanding AI-related capital expenditures (e.g., SoftBank’s acquisition move) continue to boost tech stocks.

The U.S. government shutdown, now in its 9th day, has created a data vacuum, amplifying the impact of company-specific news.

FX: Dollar Strengthens Broadly, Yen Weakens to 153

The U.S. Dollar Index rose 0.16% to break 99, while USD/JPY hit 153.22, its highest since February.

EUR/USD fell 0.2% to 1.1607, and GBP/USD dropped to 1.3368, the lowest since September 26.

Fundamental Drivers:

Japan’s political backdrop: Newly elected Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi signaled no support for FX intervention, driving a 3.5% yen depreciation since her victory.

Safe-haven flow reversal: The unresolved U.S. government shutdown and delayed Fed rate-cut expectations have boosted the appeal of dollar assets.

Precious & Base Metals: Silver Breaks $50, Copper Near Record

Silver: Spot prices broke above $50/oz for the first time in decades, surging over 2% intraday.

Gold: Slightly down 0.1% at $4,037, but remains firmly above the $4,000 mark.

Copper: LME copper rose 1.51%, approaching record highs amid persistent supply tightness.

Key Drivers:

Industrial momentum: Demand from solar and electronics sectors continues to strengthen silver’s industrial role.

Divergent safe-haven flows: The Gaza ceasefire has temporarily capped gold’s upside, but continued central bank buying (PBoC’s 11th consecutive month of gold accumulation) provides long-term support.

Energy & Crypto: Oil Range-Bound, Ethereum Drops 3.5%

Oil: Brent crude edged up 0.09%. Volatility narrowed after former U.S. President Trump announced a ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas.

Crypto: Ethereum fell 3.5% below $4,400, with Bitcoin also retreating as risk appetite cooled.

Market Context:

Easing geopolitical risks reduced oil’s risk premium, but OPEC+ supply discipline limited downside pressure.

The stronger dollar and stretched valuations in tech triggered profit-taking in crypto assets.

Today’s focus

U.S. Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index

Canada September Employment Report

U.S. Government Shutdown Developments: Prolonged delay could postpone next week’s CPI release, heightening policy uncertainty.

Fed Speakers: Watch for remarks from James Bullard and John Williams on labor market conditions.

Earnings Season Kickoff: JPMorgan and Citigroup results to gauge the resilience of the U.S. economy.