U.S. equity futures rebounded modestly on Monday, with S&P 500 futures up 0.3%. The U.S. dollar index was flat, while the Japanese yen climbed to a one-week high. Spot gold rose 1.1% to USD 4,347/oz, approaching its historical peak; silver surged 3% to USD 63.87/oz; Bitcoin rebounded to USD 89,900. Market focus remains locked in a tug-of-war between “AI bubble concerns” and “Federal Reserve policy expectations.”
Key Market Moves and Fundamental Analysis
1. U.S. Equity Market: Tech Selling Pressure Eases, Economic Data in Focus
S&P 500 futures rose 0.3%, Nasdaq 100 futures gained 0.2%, attempting to recover from Friday’s decline of over 1%.
Stock highlights: Nvidia rose 0.66% pre-market; Apple edged down 0.1%; iRobot plunged over 80% after filing for bankruptcy.
Key drivers:
AI valuation concerns: Yardeni Research downgraded the “Magnificent Seven” to underweight, questioning the cost-benefit dynamics of AI applications.
Data anticipation: Markets are awaiting Tuesday’s November nonfarm payrolls report (expected +50,000 jobs) and Thursday’s CPI release.
2. FX Market: Yen Hits One-Week High as BoJ Rate-Hike Expectations Rise
The U.S. dollar index was broadly unchanged; EUR/USD hovered around 1.1650.
The yen strengthened 0.6% to 154.955 per dollar, marking a one-week high.
Policy backdrop:
Strong Tankan survey: Large manufacturers’ confidence hit a four-year high, reinforcing expectations of a BoJ rate hike in December.
Concerns over Fed independence: Former President Trump said he is considering Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair and advocated for interest rates below 1%.
