October 24, 2025 — Yesterday, WTI crude oil surged 5% to $61.59 per barrel, marking its biggest single-day gain of the year. Spot gold rebounded over 1%, breaking above $4,140 per ounce. U.S. stock indexes closed mixed as Tesla tumbled more than 5%, weighing on the Nasdaq. The U.S. dollar index stabilized at the 99 mark. Market sentiment was dominated by a fierce tug-of-war between “Russian oil supply disruption due to sanctions” and the return of “recession trades.”
U.S. Stock Market: Mixed Earnings, Energy Stocks Lead the Gains
The Dow Jones fell 0.04%, the S&P 500 rose 0.1%, and the Nasdaq was flat as Tesla’s 5% slump dragged down the tech sector.
Leading sectors: Energy stocks outperformed, supported by the oil price spike; airline stocks also gained, with American Airlines up more than 4% after raising its profit outlook.
Stock movers: Volvo Cars surged 29% on European markets after reporting stronger-than-expected Q3 earnings; Netflix and Texas Instruments disappointed with weaker results.
Key Drivers:
Geopolitical Risk Premium: The Trump administration imposed sanctions on major Russian oil companies, sparking fears of global supply disruptions.
Commodities: Oil Sees Largest Jump of the Year, Gold Regains Its Safe-Haven Appeal
WTI crude rose 5% to $61.59 per barrel, while Brent crude climbed in tandem.
Impact of Sanctions: Russian oil giants account for roughly 12% of global supply—any export curbs could overturn the IEA’s surplus outlook.
Precious Metals Rebound:
Spot gold rose over 1% to $4,140 per ounce, with silver following higher.
Driving Logic: The cancellation of the planned “Trump–Putin summit” underscored geopolitical uncertainty. Despite a stable dollar, demand for safe-haven assets remained strong.
FX and Bonds: Dollar Holds Firm at 99, Treasury Yields Edge Higher
Dollar Index: Steady around 99.0, with the euro falling to 1.1580 against the dollar.
Bond Market: The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rose 2 basis points to 3.96%; rising inflation expectations curbed demand for bonds.
Core Logic: Policy divergence between the U.S. and Europe (as seen in weaker European equities) supported the dollar, but surging oil prices may lift global inflation expectations.
Europe and Asia-Pacific Markets: European Stocks Rebounded, Japanese Stocks Fluctuated
European Markets: Germany’s DAX opened 0.6% lower but pared losses; the Euro Stoxx 50 fell 0.84%.
Asia-Pacific: Japan’s Nikkei 225 saw increased volatility amid earnings season; South Korea’s KOSPI pulled back after hitting a record high.
Today’s focus
U.S. September CPI release
U.S. and Eurozone PMI data
Eurozone October manufacturing PMI
Details of Russian oil sanctions—watch for potential G7 follow-up measures
Corporate earnings after hours: Apple, Amazon, Meta (focus on AI capex and ad demand)
Chevron, ExxonMobil: Energy earnings outlook boosted by oil price rally
The Fed enters its pre-meeting blackout period—CPI data will serve as the final indicator ahead of the October policy meeting.
