Amillex Daily Market Commentary | Strong Jobs and Manufacturing Data Jolt Markets, Safe-Haven Assets See Sharp Volatility

January 16, 2026 — Global financial markets experienced heightened volatility after a series of U.S. economic releases significantly exceeded expectations, prompting a rapid shift in market narratives. Sentiment moved away from a pure risk-aversion stance toward renewed concerns over a stronger U.S. dollar and the persistence of elevated interest rates. Data underscored the resilience of the U.S. economy. Initial jobless claims unexpectedly fell to 198,000, well below forecasts, easing fears of a slowdown in labor market momentum. At the same time, manufacturing data delivered a major upside surprise, with the January Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index surging to 12.6 from -10.2, signaling a clear rebound in industrial activity. Supported by these robust indicators, the U.S. Dollar Index climbed toward 99.35, exerting broad pressure on precious metals. Spot gold retreated to around USD 4,615 per ounce after testing record highs, as short-term profit-taking intensified, while silver saw a sharp reversal—dropping more than 7% intraday after briefly breaking above USD 93 to a new all-time high.

Asset Class Performance and Fundamental Analysis

1. U.S. Equity Markets

Index Performance

Dow Jones Industrial Average: Closed near 49,504 (+0.60%). The Dow outperformed, supported primarily by strong earnings from the banking sector.
S&P 500 Index: Ended around 6,966 (+0.26%), extending modest gains as the index approached the psychologically important 7,000 level.
Nasdaq Composite: Closed at approximately 25,671 (+0.25%). While some AI infrastructure stocks saw mild pullbacks after recent rallies, the broader tech sector remained supported by long-term AI profit growth expectations.

Stock Spotlight – NVIDIA (NVDA): Shares closed around USD 186 (+2.4%). At CES 2026, NVIDIA officially unveiled its next-generation AI supercomputing platform, codenamed “Rubin.” The platform features six flagship chips and aims to reduce inference costs by a factor of ten—further reinforcing NVIDIA’s dominant position in the global computing power ecosystem.

2. Foreign Exchange Market

U.S. Dollar Index (DXY): Trading near 99.39. Strong economic data helped the dollar reclaim the 99 level. With jobless claims falling to 198,000 and the Philly Fed index rebounding to 12.6, market expectations for near-term Fed rate cuts continued to cool.
EUR/USD: At 1.1604. The euro remained under pressure after the eurozone’s December Manufacturing PMI (final) came in at 48.8, confirming ongoing contraction in the region’s industrial sector.
USD/JPY: Around 158.50. The yen weakened to recent lows as the U.S.–Japan interest rate differential widened further, with the pair edging closer to the 160 psychological and potential intervention threshold.

3. Precious Metals and Commodities

Precious Metals

Spot Gold (XAU/USD): Wide high-level consolidation, holding above USD 4,600. After hitting a record high of USD 4,642, gold entered a consolidation phase and is currently trading around USD 4,612.
Spot Silver (XAG/USD): Extreme volatility amid tariff concerns, pulling back toward USD 86 support. Silver experienced its most violent swing of 2026 so far.

Commodities

WTI Crude Oil: Sharp sell-off as geopolitical premium fades, falling below the USD 60 psychological level. Prices dropped nearly 5% to around USD 58.90 per barrel. Without geopolitical support, crude faced heavy selling pressure above USD 60, with short-term price action shifting toward the midpoint of its three-month range.

4. Crypto Assets and Macro Developments

Bitcoin (BTC): Pullback from highs, consolidating above USD 95,000. After peaking at USD 97,690, BTC entered a technical retracement phase and is currently trading near USD 95,580.
Ethereum (ETH): Underperforming BTC amid regulatory concerns, slipping toward USD 3,400. ETH is currently trading around USD 3,415.

5. Today’s Focus