Amillex Daily Market Commentary: Tech Stocks Rebound Ahead of Nvidia Earnings; Japan Bond Yields Surge to 17-Year High Triggering a “Triple Shock”; Gold Breaks Above $4,120; Oil Slides Below $59 on Supply–Demand Imbalance
November 20, 2025 — U.S. equities closed broadly higher with the Nasdaq up over 0.4%, while Alphabet hit a record high. Japan’s 10-year JGB yield spiked to 1.765%, the highest since June 2008, sending the yen to 155.89. Spot gold jumped more than 1.1% above $4,120, WTI crude fell 3% to $58.69, and Bitcoin dropped below $92,000.
1. U.S. Equities: Tech Stocks Broadly Higher; Alphabet Sets All-Time High as Sentiment Improves Before Nvidia Earnings
The S&P 500 rose 0.13%, the Dow added 0.10%, and the Nasdaq edged up 0.12%.
The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index fell 1.4%.
Sector ETFs:
• Airlines ETF +1.32%
• Banks ETF +0.54%
• Energy ETF –1.88%
Stock highlights:
• Alphabet jumped 6%, pushing its market cap to $3.63 trillion (Gemini 3 Pro ranked No.1 on LMArena).
• Nvidia gained 2% pre-market as investors await earnings to confirm AI demand—its market cap now exceeds that of the entire energy, materials, and real estate sectors combined.
Core logic:
• Earnings preview: Strategas noted Nvidia’s results “could reignite AI optimism,” though expectations are significantly elevated.
• Sector rotation: Funds rotated out of energy and into tech; Fed December rate-cut probability remains below 50%.
2. Asia-Pacific Markets: Japan Hit by “Triple Shock” in Stocks, Bonds, and FX as Fiscal Fears Intensify
The Nikkei 225 fell 0.3%, TOPIX declined 0.2%.
Japan’s 10-year JGB yield surged to 1.765%, a new 17-year high.
The yen weakened to 155.89, the lowest since January.
Drivers:
• Fiscal concerns: Markets expect PM Sanae Takai’s government to unveil a massive supplementary budget, likely boosting JGB supply.
• Policy signal: PM’s economic adviser Kataoka said, “A rate hike is unlikely before March,” reinforcing a dovish stance and pressuring the yen.
Regional spillover:
• KOSPI fell 0.6%.
• China’s A-share new energy sector continued to face selling pressure.
3. Precious Metals & Commodities: Gold Surges on Safe-Haven Demand; Oil Drops as Supply Conditions Worsen
• Spot gold rose 1.1% to $4,120; spot silver climbed 2.29% to $51.8.
• Safe-haven demand was supported by Japan’s fiscal concerns and stretched U.S. tech valuations.
Crude oil:
• WTI crude fell 3% to $58.69; Brent followed lower.
• Bearish catalysts:
– API crude inventories rose 4.45 million barrels (vs. –0.6 million expected)
– OPEC+ compliance deteriorated
• Copper edged lower as global demand expectations weakened.
4. FX & Crypto: Yen Falls to 10-Month Low; Bitcoin Extends Decline
• The Dollar Index rose 0.2%.
• EUR/USD fell to 1.1580; GBP weakened.
Policy divergence:
• Fed remains hawkish (rate-cut odds <50%).
• Bank of Japan stays accommodative — widening the U.S.–Japan rate differential.
Crypto:
• Bitcoin –0.7% to $91,780;
• Ethereum –1% to $3,065.
Volatility in risk assets increased, putting pressure on leveraged long positions.
5. Bond Markets: JGBs Sold Heavily While U.S. Yields Stay Flat
• Japan 10-year yield rose 2 bps to 1.765%, a 17-year high.
• U.S. 10-year Treasury yield held steady at 4.11% as investors await NFP and Fed minutes.
• German bund yields edged lower amid safe-haven flows and soft European equities.
Today’s focus
Nvidia Earnings
• Market expectation: $54.9B revenue (+56% YoY).
• Focus: AI chip orders and supply chain visibility.
• Impact:
– Beat: Nasdaq may challenge recent highs
– Miss: Broad pullback likely across AI-linked stocks
