October 21, 2025 — Yesterday, global equities advanced as risk appetite returned, led by U.S. tech stocks. The Nasdaq 100 rose over 1%, with Apple hitting a record high. Japan’s Nikkei 225 index surpassed the 49,000 mark for the first time, while the yen weakened to 151 per dollar. Spot gold rebounded to $4,350 per ounce, and Bitcoin gained more than 4%. Oil was the lone laggard, with WTI crude falling below $56 per barrel. Market sentiment was supported by easing policy uncertainty and resilient corporate earnings.
U.S. Market: Tech Leads Gains, Regional Banks Stabilize
The Nasdaq 100 rose 1%, the S&P 500 gained 0.8%, and the Dow Jones added 0.41%. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index hit a record high, rising 1.7%.
Top gainers included Apple, which climbed nearly 3% after Loop Capital raised its iPhone demand forecast, while AMD and Intel each gained over 2%. Nvidia slipped 0.3%.
In Europe, defense and luxury stocks diverged — Rheinmetall surged 5.4%, Kering advanced 4.96%, while B&M Retail plunged 24% following its CFO’s resignation.
Key Drivers:
Trade tensions ease: Donald Trump downplayed the urgency of new tariffs.
Credit risks contained: Diverging bank provisions did not spark systemic concerns.
Asia-Pacific and Europe: Nikkei Hits Record High as Political Clarity Emerges
Japan’s Nikkei 225 jumped 3.37% to a historic high above 49,000.
Main catalyst: The Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) formed an alliance with Japan Innovation Party, with Sanae Takaichi effectively securing the prime minister position — fueling expectations of fiscal stimulus.
FX impact: The yen weakened to 150.81, and markets revived the “long Japan stocks, short yen” trade known as the “Takaichi trade.”
In Europe, the STOXX 600 index rose 1%, Germany’s DAX gained 0.8%, and France’s CAC 40 added 0.48%.
Gold prices climbed over 2% to $4,350 per ounce, recovering part of last Friday’s sharp losses (the largest daily drop since May 2024).
Long-term support: Sustained central bank gold buying — over 800 tons added globally in 2025 — and fragile Middle East ceasefire conditions underpin prices.
Bitcoin jumped over 4%, with Ethereum following suit, as renewed risk appetite drove flows back into high-risk assets.
Commodities: Oil Falls Alone on Worsening Supply-Demand Outlook
WTI crude fell 2% to $56 per barrel, while Brent crude also declined.
Bearish factors:
The IEA warned of potential oversupply by 2026;
OPEC+ production increases are taking effect, while U.S. inventories continue to build.
Support level: Around $55 marks the marginal cost for shale oil — a sustained break below may trigger supply contraction.
Today’s focus：
Japan Prime Minister Vote: If Sanae Takaichi is officially elected, Japanese equities may extend gains while the yen weakens further. Markets will scrutinize details of her proposed “fiscal-monetary coordination” framework.
U.S. CPI Preview: If the government shutdown ends, September CPI data (due Oct 24) is expected to show 3.1% YoY growth.
U.S. Conference Board Leading Index (22:00): A reading below the prior -0.1% could reinforce economic slowdown expectations.
Eurozone Consumer Confidence (17:00): Watch for signs of weakening demand amid ongoing geopolitical risks.
Earnings After Hours: Tesla, IBM, and Intel — with focus on AI-related capex and signs of PC demand recovery.
