Amillex Daily Market Commentary｜Geopolitical Raid Triggers Safe-Haven Surge, Stagflation Fears Weigh on Global Assets

On January 6, 2026, global financial markets opened the first week of the new year amid multiple layers of turbulence, with safe-haven demand and fundamental concerns resonating simultaneously. On the geopolitical front, a sudden event in which U.S. forces launched a raid in Venezuela and captured Nicolás Maduro instantly sent market panic sentiment soaring. Spot gold prices gapped sharply higher and firmly held above the $4,400/oz level; WTI crude oil, after experiencing intense volatility at the opening around $56.39, was quickly pushed higher by safe-haven buying to reclaim the key $58.0/bbl level. The geopolitical premium is forcefully reversing the recent sluggish trend.

On the macro data front, last night’s release of the December ISM Manufacturing PMI came in at 47.9, not only below the expected 48.3 but also lower than the previous reading. Under the shadow of high interest rates and trade uncertainty, U.S. manufacturing orders remain weak and momentum is lacking. More troubling is that the prices index surged countertrend to 58.5, reflecting persistent upstream inflationary pressures.

Multi-Asset Market Performance and Fundamental Analysis

1. U.S. Equity Market

Dow Jones Industrial Average: Up 1.23%, closing at 48,977.18 points, extending prior gains while consolidating at elevated levels;
S&P 500 Index Futures: Up approximately 2.2% to 6,900 points, indicating cautious optimism ahead of key macro data;
Nasdaq 100 Index Futures: Up approximately 0.7% to 23,390 points, with technology stocks remaining supported.

Stock Focus

Tesla (TSLA): After seven consecutive trading sessions of sharp declines, the stock saw a technical rebound today, closing up 3.1%.

In the short term, equity indices remain in a choppy upward structure, but with subdued trading volume and risk appetite yet to fully recover.

2. Foreign Exchange Market

U.S. Dollar Index (DXY): Remains firm, fluctuating around the 98.3 level with a gradual upward bias.
EUR/USD: Pressured by U.S. dollar strength, trading within the 1.16–1.17 range.
USD/JPY: Holding above 156, though depreciation pressure on the yen persists.

驅動邏輯： Dollar strength is primarily driven by expectations of short-term policy stability from the Federal Reserve, as well as safe-haven demand amid weak external economic data. In addition, policy divergence between the U.S. and Japan continues to weigh on the yen.

3. Precious Metals and Commodities

Spot Gold (XAU/USD): Surged 2.7% intraday to around $4,400/oz, marking a new high since the end of last year. Continued contraction in the ISM Manufacturing PMI (47.9) significantly undermined confidence in U.S. economic growth, forcing capital to accelerate into gold for safety and further lifting the ceiling on gold prices.
Spot Silver (XAG/USD): Quoted at approximately $75.5/oz. From a technical perspective, dense resistance is clustered in the $77–$78 range. Weighed down by expectations of weak industrial demand, its upside elasticity currently lags behind gold.
WTI Crude Oil: Consolidating at $57–$58/bbl range. Supply disruption risks stemming from Venezuela’s geopolitical conflict are providing critical bottom support for oil prices, allowing them to attempt a reversal of the pressure caused by U.S. dollar strength, as prices seek a basing rebound amid safe-haven buying and market tug-of-war.

4. Crypto Assets

Bitcoin (BTC): Trading at around $93,000, moving sideways at elevated levels. Key short-term support is seen in the $90,000–92,000 range.
Ethereum (ETH): Trading around $3,100, with sentiment-driven moves remaining prominent and volatility still elevated.

5. Today’s Focus