Amillex Daily Market Commentary | Weaker Dollar Drives Gold to Five-Day Rally, Easing Geopolitical Expectations Weigh on Oil

April 2, 2026 — Global commodity markets showed a notable recovery trend amid the interplay of multiple macroeconomic factors. Spot gold extended its recent strong rebound, recording gains for the fifth consecutive trading session and steadily trading near the $4,800/oz level intraday. The primary driver behind this rally is the pullback of the U.S. Dollar Index from recent highs, which has created upward room for precious metals.

At the same time, although market sentiment has stabilized following earlier volatility, the repricing of inflation expectations and real interest rate trajectories has allowed gold to demonstrate strong resilience and sustained buying support after its first-quarter correction.

On the macro front, expectations of a marginal easing in geopolitical tensions have become a key factor in suppressing safe-haven premiums. As involved parties signal a potential end to military actions, previously heightened market anxiety has eased. This shift has directly triggered a correction in energy markets, with crude oil prices falling by more than 1% to around $98.85 per barrel.

Currently, the market is in a phase shaped by the dual forces of “cooling tensions” and “policy dynamics.” While short-term safe-haven demand has softened, continued weakness in upcoming macroeconomic data could enable gold to consolidate above $4,800 and potentially initiate a new structural uptrend.

资产绩效与基本面分析

1. 美国股票市场

指数表现

标准普尔500指数（SP500）： Around 6,530 points (6.53K), up 2.91%. After recent volatility, the index shows strong rebound momentum, with market sentiment shifting from defensive to risk-on, and earnings growth expectations being repriced.
道琼斯工业平均指数（DJI）： 46,565.74, up 224.23 points (+0.48%). Blue-chip value stocks remain resilient, holding above the 46,000 level and demonstrating adaptability to the current interest rate environment.
纳斯达克100指数（NQ1）： 24,169.00, down 0.11%. Diverging from the broader rally, reflecting sector rotation as AI-driven premium capital flows into semiconductor hardware and application segments.

股票亮点

英特尔（INTC）： $48.03, surged 8.84%, leading the market as investors price in process technology breakthroughs and supply chain localization benefits.
Google (GOOC) & Tesla (TSLA): Up 3.42% and 2.56% respectively. Tech giants show mixed performance, but growth stocks are benefiting from valuation recovery as rate expectations stabilize.
苹果公司（AAPL）： $255.63, up 0.73%, trading steadily above the $250 range with moderate performance.

2. 外汇市场

美元指数（DXY）： 99.516, down 0.04%. Hovering below the key 100 level, with reduced bullish momentum as the Fed’s policy signals become more balanced.
欧元/美元： 1.15946, up 0.04%. The euro remains weak within a long-term consolidation range, with markets awaiting updated Q2 economic projections from the ECB.
美元/日元： 158.658, down 0.08%. The yen finds support near 160, with carry trade unwinding and potential BOJ intervention limiting further depreciation.

3. 贵金属和大宗商品

贵金属

现货黄金（XAUUSD）： ~$4,786.98/oz, up 0.61%. Gold remains elevated above $4,700 despite prior sharp gains, supported by safe-haven demand and structural central bank balance sheet dynamics.
现货白银（XAGUSD）： $75.712/oz, up 0.90%. Silver outperforms gold again, reflecting additional support from improving industrial demand expectations.

大宗商品

原油（XTIUSD）： $97.93/barrel, down 1.24%. Prices faced selling pressure near the $100 level, as concerns grow that elevated oil prices could trigger secondary inflation and dampen demand.

4. 加密资产与宏观动态

比特币（BTCUSD）： $68,454, up 0.52%. Trading sideways below the $70,000 level, with markets watching ETF inflows and liquidity conditions.
以太坊（ETHUSD）： $2,150.93, up 0.50%. Moving in line with the broader market, lacking independent catalysts and remaining in a low-volatility consolidation phase.

5. 今日重点