December 9, 2025 — The three major U.S. equity indices opened slightly higher, with the S&P 500 up 0.07%; the U.S. Dollar Index edged lower while the yen remained under pressure; the 10-year Japanese government bond yield surged to 1.955%, the highest since July 2007; LME copper broke above USD 11,742/ton to set another all-time high; Bitcoin rebounded to USD 91,223.

Key Markets & Fundamental Analysis

1. U.S. Equity Market: Tech Leads Gains, Investors Await Fed Decision

S&P 500: +0.07% to 6,875.20

Dow Jones: +0.03% to 47,971.51

Nasdaq: +0.25% to 23,638.22

行业表现：

Semiconductor ETF: +1.57%

Technology ETF: +1.10%

Energy ETF: –0.48%

Notable Movers:

Broadcom +1.48%: Continued optimism around AI chip demand

Marvell Technology –9.8%: Benchmark warned it may lose Amazon orders

核心驱动因素：

Rate-Cut Expectations Solidified:

Markets are fully pricing in a 25 bps Fed rate cut in December; attention now turns to the dot plot and hints on the 2026 rate path.

Seasonality Support:

Daniel Murray of EFG Asset Management noted that historical December strength and year-end positioning are attracting inflows.

2. FX Market: Dollar Edges Lower, Yen Weakness Persists

The U.S. Dollar Index slipped slightly.

EUR/USD rose 0.1% to 1.1654.

JPY/USD hovered near 155, as Japan’s GDP contraction deepened the policy dilemma.

Policy Context:

Fed Caution:

Barclays expects 2026 could become a “pause year,” with sticky inflation limiting the room for easing.

BOJ Rate-Hike Pressure:

Weak data (November Economy Watchers Index at 50.3, far below expectations) and surging bond yields create a policy contradiction.

3. Bond Market: Global Selloff Intensifies, Japan & Germany Hit Multi-Year Highs

Japan Government Bonds:

10-year yield: 1.955%, highest since July 2007

5-year yield: 1.44%, highest since June 2008

司机：

BOJ’s December rate-hike probability rises to 70%

Sharper-than-expected GDP contraction triggered risk-off selling

European Bonds:

German 10-year yield: 2.84%, highest since March

30-year yield: 3.441%, highest since 2011

Hawkish Signals:

ECB official Isabel Schnabel said she “welcomes market pricing for rate hikes,” prompting money markets to trim rate-cut expectations.

4. Commodities: Copper Sets New Record, Oil Rebalances on Mixed Signals

Copper Market:

LME copper broke USD 11,742/ton

Shanghai futures followed higher

Fundamental Support:

Supply Disruptions:

The impact of Glencore’s Chile mine accident continues; LME inventories fell below 100,000 tons.

Demand Boom:

AI data-center buildout and power-grid upgrades support long-term demand; tariff-avoidance stocking further tightens spot supply.

Oil Market:

WTI crude hovered around USD 60/barrel

Brent traded at USD 63.75/barrel

Push & Pull Factors:

OPEC+ compliance weakened (November output –30,000 bpd)

U.S. rig count rose by 5 to 549, adding supply pressure

5. Precious Metals & Crypto: Gold Steady, Bitcoin Rebounds

Precious Metals:

Spot gold held near USD 4,220, supported by central-bank demand

China’s gold reserves rose for the 13th consecutive month

加密货币：

Bitcoin: +1.1% to USD 91,223

Ethereum: +1.2% to USD 3,123

市场情绪：

Fed rate-cut expectations lifted risk assets,

But regulatory pressure persists: seven Chinese associations jointly issued warnings about virtual-currency risks.

今日焦点

U.S. NY Fed 1-year inflation expectations (November)

Reserve Bank of Australia rate decision (Dec 9)

Germany October trade balance (seasonally adjusted)

U.S. NFIB Small Business Optimism Index (November)

U.S. JOLTS Job Openings (October)