Amillex Daily Market Commentary | NFP in Focus as Gold Holds Firm Above the 5,000 Mark

11 Feb 2026 — Gold markets entered a data-heavy week with spot prices holding near USD 5,040/oz in early Asian trade. After hitting a record USD 5,600/oz in late January and triggering profit-taking, prices are now consolidating. Mild pressure on Tuesday reflected cautious positioning ahead of key U.S. NFP and CPI data, while flat December retail sales raised growth concerns. Markets are increasingly pricing in two Fed rate cuts this year, lowering gold’s opportunity cost and underpinning prices. A soft NFP print near 70,000 would further confirm a cooling labor market.

Asset Performance and Fundamental Analysis

1. U.S. Equity Markets

Index Performance

Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI): 50,188.14, up 0.10%
S&P 500 (SPX): 6,961.53, up 0.11%, consolidating tightly near the 7,000 level
Nasdaq 100 (NQ): 25,280.50, up 0.25%, as markets await key employment and inflation data to re-anchor rate expectations

Stock in Focus

Apple (AAPL): USD 273.68, down 0.34%
Shares eased from recent highs, reflecting valuation adjustment pressures amid macro uncertainty and rising content-related costs, even for defensive tech leaders.

2. Forex Exchange Market

U.S. Dollar Index (DXY): 96.914, up 0.02%
The dollar remains broadly stable as markets weigh expectations of up to three Fed rate cuts against ongoing safe-haven demand, keeping the index in a tight range below 97.
EUR/USD: 1.18947, flat on the day
The euro is supported by improving eurozone growth expectations but lacks momentum for a decisive breakout beyond 1.19.
USD/JPY: 154.224, down 0.10%
The yen holds firm amid speculation over potential Bank of Japan policy adjustments and renewed risk-off sentiment.

3. Precious Metals & Commodities

Precious Metals

Spot Gold (XAU/USD): ~USD 5,048.08/oz, up 0.46%
Supported by geopolitical risks and ongoing structural central bank demand, gold remains firmly above USD 5,000, with volatility elevated due to risk repricing.
Spot Silver (XAG/USD): USD 81.854/oz, up 1.33%
Silver continues to outperform gold, driven by supply constraints and strong industrial demand as prices enter a phase of discovery.

Commodities

Crude Oil (WTI): USD 64.32/barrel, up 0.16%
While supply-side pressures persist—particularly from non-OPEC production—geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and concerns over potential supply disruptions are keeping prices supported above USD 60.

4. Crypto Assets and Macro Developments

Bitcoin (BTC/USD): USD 69,163, up 0.52%
With expectations of ample global liquidity and improving risk sentiment, BTC is consolidating technically below the USD 70,000 level.
Ethereum (ETH/USD): USD 2,024.9, up 0.16%
ETH shows a more restrained performance, suggesting capital preference for assets with clearer certainty—such as traditional hard assets or top-tier tokens—under the current rate environment.

5. Today’s Focus