November 27, 2025 — Global markets surged on Wednesday as optimism over a “90% probability of a December Fed rate cut” drove a broad-based risk rally. All three major U.S. equity indices opened higher, with the S&P 500 up 0.41% and the Nasdaq up 0.60%. The U.S. Dollar Index fell to 99.78 as non-USD currencies strengthened; spot gold broke above $4,150/oz, hitting a three-week high; Bitcoin pulled back slightly to $86,700.

1. Key Market Moves & Macro Drivers

1. U.S. Equities: Tech Leads; Oracle Surges 6% on Blowout Earnings

S&P 500 rose 0.41% to 6,793.55

Dow Jones up 0.18% to 47,196.15

Nasdaq up 0.60% to 23,163.19

부문별 주요 내용:

Semiconductor ETF +1.73%

Technology ETF +1.13%

Banking ETF −0.13%

Corporate movers:

Oracle +6%: AI-driven database demand surges; Q3 cloud revenue growth hit a record high

Dell +4%: AI server orders surged; full-year shipment target raised to USD 25 billion

주요 동인:

Dovish expectations intensify:

Fed’s December rate-cut probability jumped to 90%; White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett (a strong rate-cut advocate) emerges as a top contender for the Fed Chair role.

Data-dependent justification:

September retail sales rose just 0.2% MoM, signaling a slowdown and reinforcing the easing narrative.

2. FX Market: Dollar Drops to 99.78; Yen Weakness Persists

DXY dipped 0.05% to 99.78

EUR/USD rose to 1.1580; GBP/USD to 1.3180

USD/JPY weakened to 156.39

정책 배경:

Fed pivot:

Governor Milhan called for “substantial rate cuts”; Vice Chair Williams hinted at near-term policy flexibility.

BOJ dilemma:

Rate-hike expectations clash with Japan’s fiscal stimulus plans; yen remains pressured by carry trades.

3. Precious Metals: Gold Breaks Above $4,150 on Rate-Cut Bets + Geopolitical Risk

Spot gold up 0.45% to $4,149/oz; COMEX futures followed higher.

Supportive factors:

Uncertainty around Russia–Ukraine peace talks (Trump set Nov. 27 as a “final deadline”).

U.S. real-rate expectations moved lower.

Technical note:

Daily chart holds above $4,100; short-term upside targets $4,200.

4. Commodities: Oil Rebalances; Agricultural Futures Diverge

원유:

Brent +0.03% to $61.80/bbl

WTI flat

기본적인 통찰력:

Geopolitical easing: Russian-Ukrainian negotiations progress, reducing supply-disruption fears.

Demand strength:

China’s October crude imports up 12% YoY; EIA inventories down 2.8 million barrels WoW.

Agriculture:

Corn +1.2% (U.S. export demand strong)

Soybeans +0.8%

5. Crypto: Bitcoin Pulls Back Slightly; Long Leverage Unwinds

Bitcoin −0.2% to $86,790

Ethereum −0.4% to $2,918

Sentiment drivers:

Capital rotation: U.S. equity strength draws flows away from crypto.

Regulatory pressure: U.S. SEC intensifies stablecoin scrutiny; Coinbase sees USD 120M net outflows.

6. Global Equities: Asia & Europe Follow Wall Street Higher

Nikkei 225 +1.8% to 49,559

KOSPI +2.7% to 3,960

Euro Stoxx 50 +0.6%; DAX +0.55%

Transmission mechanism:

Dovish Fed signals boost global liquidity expectations, lifting both tech and cyclical sectors.

• 오늘의 초점

Federal Reserve Beige Book

ECB October Meeting Minutes

Canada Q3 Current Account