Amillex Daily Market Commentary | Ceasefire Hopes Ease Supply Fears, Gold and Oil Move in Opposite Directions

の上 March 11, 2026, global commodity markets showed clear divergence during the Asian session. Concerns about a prolonged disruption to global oil supply cooled sharply, pushing U.S. crude oil down to around $76 per barrel after a period of extreme volatility. Prices are currently fluctuating around the $80 per barrel level.

This diplomatic de-escalation signal has not only pulled global inflation expectations back from extreme levels but has also reduced the pressure that high energy prices place on the global economy. Meanwhile, spot gold remains relatively stable amid mixed safe-haven demand and macroeconomic expectations, currently trading around $5,188 per ounce. Moving into the second half of the week, market attention will focus on Wednesday’s U.S. February CPI data and Friday’s PCE inflation index.

Market Performance & Fundamental Overview

1. 米国株式市場

インデックスパフォーマンス

ダウ・ジョーンズ工業株平均（DJI）： 現在 47,706.51、下 0.07% on the day. The index is showing signs of losing momentum around the 47,700 level, as blue-chip value stocks face limited upside in the current high-interest-rate environment.
S&P 500（SP500）： 現在 6,810.20、上 0.22%. The index is seeing a mild rebound driven by technology stocks as risk sentiment improves following easing geopolitical tensions.
ナスダック100（NQ1）： 現在 25,063.25、上 0.32%. The Nasdaq is outperforming the broader market, reflecting renewed capital flows into high-growth technology stocks after oil’s sharp drop helped suppress inflation expectations.

株式フォーカス

テスラ（TSLA）： 取引場所 $399.24、上 0.14%. The stock is consolidating just below the $400心理レベル, supported by easing energy cost pressures and improving macro sentiment.

2. 外国為替市場

米ドル指数（DXY）： 現在 98.833、下 0.08%. Safe-haven demand for the dollar has slightly faded, and short-term upside momentum appears limited.
EUR/USD (EURUSD): 取引場所 1.16245、上 0.12%. The euro is finding support near 1.16, as falling energy prices help ease imported inflation pressures in the eurozone.
USD/JPY (USDJPY): 現在 158.057、上 0.01%. The pair remains largely unchanged as markets wait for clearer direction between Bank of Japan policy expectations and the Federal Reserve’s steady rate stance.

3. 貴金属・コモディティ

貴金属

スポットゴールド（XAUUSD）： 取引 $5,213.13 per ounce、上 0.40% today. With oil prices falling and inflation expectations adjusting lower, gold continues to hold strong structural support above $5,200.
スポットシルバー（XAGUSD）： 現在 $88.90 per ounce、上 0.64%. Silver continues to outperform gold, reflecting stronger demand due to its dual industrial and financial asset characteristics during improving macro conditions.

商品

原油（XTIUSD）： 現在 $82.70 per barrel、下 4.45%. Oil is the key market mover today, driven by expectations that tensions between the U.S. and Iran could ease quickly, sharply reducing supply disruption risks.

4. 暗号資産とマクロ経済動向

ビットコイン（BTCUSD）： 現在 $69,954、下 0.01%. As Bitcoin approaches the $70,000 psychological level, price action shows clear technical consolidation as investors wait for clearer macro liquidity signals.
イーサリアム（ETHUSD）： 取引場所 $2,032.2、下 0.25%. ETH is currently underperforming gold, suggesting that digital assets have not fully regained momentum.

5. 今日の焦点