Amillex Daily Market Commentary | Global Trade Turmoil Triggers a Wave of Safe-Haven Demand, Gold and Silver Both Reach Record Highs

January 19, 2026 — Global financial markets abruptly shifted their focus from routine economic data to a geopolitical vortex in the North Atlantic. The U.S. President announced plans to impose a 10% tariff on eight countries—including Denmark, France, and Germany—starting February 1, over the Greenland issue, and warned that tariffs could be raised to 25% if an acquisition agreement is not reached by June. The move prompted a strong response from the European Union, which is preparing retaliatory measures targeting €93 billion worth of U.S. goods. Driven by these developments, risk-aversion surged across markets.

Spot gold continued to set new all-time highs during the Asian session, reaching USD 4,668.96 per ounce, with momentum pointing toward a potential test of the USD 4,700 level. U.S. crude oil traded near USD 59.06 per barrel, caught between demand concerns and heightened geopolitical risk. Meanwhile, spot silver delivered particularly aggressive gains, breaking above the USD 93 mark and showing strong upside momentum.

資産パフォーマンスとファンダメンタル分析

1. 米国株式市場

インデックスパフォーマンス

ダウ・ジョーンズ工業株平均: Around 49,360 points (-0.17%). After a series of strong advances, the index is undergoing a mild technical pullback as investors await the upcoming core earnings season.
S&P 500指数: Around 6,900 points (-0.06%). The index remains cautious ahead of the key 7,000 psychological level, as markets reassess the long-term impact of macro policy on corporate profitability.
ナスダック総合指数: Around 23,430 points (-0.06%). While the technology sector continues to benefit from the AI growth narrative, capital inflows have slowed amid escalating global trade tensions.

Stock Focus – Tesla (TSLA): Tesla closed around USD 437.50. With the company set to release its latest earnings on January 28, market interest is focused on developments in its FSD (Full Self-Driving) subscription model. Although short-term price action has softened due to global supply-chain volatility, institutions remain optimistic about Tesla’s strategic position in the global energy landscape and are closely watching whether the stock can reclaim the USD 450 level after earnings.

2. 外国為替市場

米ドル指数（DXY）： Around 99.20. While the dollar retains its safe-haven appeal amid trade uncertainty, concerns over future liquidity conditions are capping upside momentum, keeping the index range-bound above the 99 level.
ユーロ/米ドル: 1.1604. The resilience of Europe’s economic recovery is being tested, and the euro remains under short-term pressure amid rising trade frictions.
米ドル/円: 158.50. With the U.S.–Japan interest rate differential still elevated, the yen continues to test key psychological thresholds.

3. 貴金属および商品

スポットゴールド（XAUUSD）： Gold surged strongly, breaking out of its prior consolidation range and setting a new all-time high at USD 4,668.96 per ounce.
スポットシルバー（XAGUSD）： Silver once again demonstrated its high-volatility nature, posting intraday gains of over 4% and reaching a high of USD 93.69 per ounce.
WTI原油: Range-bound, below the USD 60 psychological level
Oil prices remain under pressure, currently trading around USD 59.06 per barrel.

4. 暗号資産

ビットコイン（BTC）： Consolidating at high levels, watching the 100,000 mark
Bitcoin is trading in a consolidation pattern, currently around USD 92,580. After peaking at USD 97,690, the market has seen a degree of technical retracement.
Ripple (XRPUSD): XRP is trading actively around USD 1.93. Supported by growing cross-border payment demand and expectations of potential policy tailwinds, the USD 1.90 level continues to provide solid support.

5. 今日の焦点