December 10, 2025 — The three major U.S. indices opened lower but later staged a mild rebound, with the S&P 500 inching up 0.09%. The U.S. Dollar Index was unchanged, while the yen weakened to 156.28. Spot silver broke above USD 60/oz for the first time in history. Bitcoin halted its decline and rebounded to USD 91,622. Copper saw a technical pullback, while crude oil posted a modest recovery. Market narratives are dominated by the fierce tug-of-war between economic resilience and policy-path expectations.

Key Market Moves and Fundamental Insights

1. U.S. Equity Market: Labor Data Boosts Sentiment, Tech Under Pressure

S&P 500: +0.09% after opening lower

Dow Jones: –0.03%

Nasdaq: –0.18%

عملکرد بخش:

Bank ETF: +0.7%

Energy ETF: +0.7%

Semiconductor ETF: –0.7%

Tech stocks under broad pressure

محرک‌های اصلی:

Resilient Labor Market:

October JOLTS job openings rose to 7.67 million (vs. 7.12 million expected), easing recession concerns.

Fed in wait-and-see mode:

Markets price a 90% probability of a 25 bps rate cut in December, but attention is centered on hawkish clues for 2026 in the dot plot.

2. FX Market: Dollar Flat, Yen Weakens on Rate-Differential Pressure

Dollar Index little changed

EUR/USD fluctuated around 1.1650

USD/JPY rose 0.2% to 156.28, the highest since Nov 28

Policy Context:

BOJ rate-hike expectations:

Governor Ueda said the BOJ “will raise rates if economic outlook is met,” but the yen failed to gain traction.

Widening U.S.–Japan yield spread:

U.S. 10-year yields climbed to 4.18% (a new high since September), discouraging the unwinding of carry trades.

3. Precious Metals: Silver Breaks USD 60 to a Historic High

Spot silver surged more than 1.5%, breaking USD 60/oz

Spot gold held above USD 4,200

Fundamental Support:

Industrial demand surges:

PV (solar) and AI-hardware demand are accelerating; global silver inventories have fallen to a 10-year low.

Safe-haven + rate-cut combo:

Fed easing expectations and geopolitical risks (Ukraine–Russia negotiations stalled) lift precious-metal appeal.

4. Commodities: Copper Sees Technical Pullback, Oil Slightly Higher

Copper:

LME copper fell 0.8% to USD 11,535.5/ton

Profit-taking triggered by RSI > 70, but supply tightness (LME stocks < 100k tons) limits downside

روغن:

WTI crude +0.3% to USD 59.05/barrel

Mixed forces:

Iraq’s West Qurna-2 field resumed production (460k bpd), weighing on prices

But ongoing Russia–Ukraine conflict provides geopolitical support

5. Cryptocurrencies: Bitcoin Rebounds but Regulatory Shadow Persists

Bitcoin: +0.3% to USD 91,622

Ethereum: +0.8% to USD 3,173

Sentiment:

Fed easing expectations improve risk appetite

But China’s seven major associations issued a new joint warning on crypto risks, restraining upside momentum

6. Bond Market: U.S. Yields Hit Three-Month Highs

U.S. 10-year yield rose to 4.18%

30-year yield approached 4.82%

Underlying Logic:

Strong labor data reduces urgency for rate cuts

Ahead of the Fed decision, traders are trimming short positions

Today’s focus

Federal Reserve interest-rate decision

U.S. API crude-oil inventories (week ending Dec 5)

China CPI (YoY, November)

U.S. Q3 Labor Cost Index (QoQ)

Bank of Canada rate decision (Dec 10)

U.S. EIA crude-oil inventories (week ending Dec 5)

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