October 13, 2025 — Global markets saw a rare mix of “trade tension concerns and AI-driven optimism.” U.S. tech stocks rebounded strongly, with the Nasdaq rising more than 1.7%, while safe-haven assets surged as spot gold broke through the $4,100 mark to a new record high and silver climbed above $52 per ounce. Market sentiment was shaped by the tug-of-war between U.S.–China tariff negotiations and accelerating investment in AI infrastructure.

U.S. Stock Market: Tech Leads the Rebound; Chinese ADRs and Rare Earth Stocks Surge

The Nasdaq rose 1.71%, the S&P 500 gained 1.16%, and the Dow Jones advanced 0.82%, recovering part of last Friday’s sharp losses.

The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index jumped more than 4%, marking its biggest one-day gain in a month.

Top Gainers:

Chip stocks: Broadcom surged over 8% on reports that it is partnering with OpenAI to co-develop custom data center chips set for 2026; Nvidia gained over 2%.

Rare earth and energy stocks: USA Rare Earth jumped 17%; nuclear power firm Energy Fuels gained 14%; Bloom Energy surged 20% thanks to new AI infrastructure collaborations.

Chinese ADRs: The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rose 2.7%, led by Alibaba, which climbed over 5%.

Fundamental Drivers:

AI Capex Boom: The OpenAI–Broadcom partnership underscored the long-term nature of compute demand, further supported by Brookfield’s $5 billion investment in AI infrastructure.

Trade Tensions: China responded to U.S. tariff threats by saying it “does not want a fight but is not afraid of one,” suggesting controlled risks and negotiation flexibility.

Precious Metals: Gold Breaks $4,100, Silver Up Nearly 60% Year-to-Date

Spot gold rose over 2% to $4,090 per ounce, up 56.24% year-to-date, while silver climbed 4.07% to above $52.

Fundamental Drivers:

Safe-Haven Demand: Rising U.S.–China trade friction — with Washington threatening tariffs on rare earths and software — drove capital inflows into precious metals.

Monetary Tailwinds: Markets are pricing in a 100% probability of a Fed rate cut in October, with real yields trending lower, providing strong support for gold.

Technical Breakout: Gold broke out of a long-term consolidation pattern; silver benefited from both industrial demand (solar + electronics) and short-covering.

Commodities: Oil Rebounds; Dollar and Yen Steady

Energy: WTI crude rose 1.68% to $59.46 per barrel, as OPEC+ output cut expectations offset demand concerns.

FX: The U.S. Dollar Index was flat; the yen slipped slightly to 151.93 per dollar; offshore yuan remained stable.

Market Logic: While escalating trade tensions could dampen global demand, geopolitical risk — particularly the fragile Middle East ceasefire — is helping form a price floor.

Today’s focus

U.S.–China Trade Talks: If Washington releases a new tariff list, market volatility could spike.

U.S. Government Shutdown — Day 14: Key data (e.g., nonfarm payrolls, CPI) remain delayed, sustaining uncertainty around the Fed’s policy path.

U.S. Bank Earnings: JPMorgan, Citigroup, and Goldman Sachs report Q3 results (pre-market); investors focus on loan growth and consumer credit quality.

China Trade Data: Any refinement of rare earth export controls could sway global supply chain sentiment.

Fed Governor Bowman’s Speech (20:45 ET): Markets will parse her remarks for signals on the labor market slowdown.