November 26, 2025 — U.S. equities ended mixed, with the S&P 500 down 0.12%, the Nasdaq slipping 0.30%, and the Dow edging up 0.07%. Tech stocks dragged markets lower as Nvidia plunged more than 5%. The U.S. dollar index fell 0.3%, while spot gold surged against the trend to $4,135/oz. WTI crude dropped 1.9% to $57.72/bbl, and Bitcoin slid 1.9% below the $87,000 mark.
I. Key Market Moves & Fundamental Analysis
1. U.S. Equities: Tech Drags Nasdaq Lower as Nvidia Drops Over 5%
S&P 500 fell 0.12% to 6,697.03, Dow rose 0.07% to 46,482.36, Nasdaq declined 0.30% to 22,802.85.
Sector performance:
Bank ETF +1.54%, Regional Bank ETF +1.51%
Tech ETF –0.91%, Semiconductor ETF –1.52%
股票亮點：
Nvidia –5%+: Rising valuation concerns in AI chips triggered concentrated profit-taking.
Alphabet strengthened: Reports that Meta plans to procure Google AI chips supported sentiment.
Macro drivers:
Conflicting data:
September PPI rose MoM, signalling sticky inflation.
Retail sales rose just 0.2% (far below expectations), highlighting weakening consumer momentum and rising slowdown risks.
政策分歧：
Fed Governor Milan advocated aggressive rate cuts.
However, firmer inflation limits dovish room.
Despite a >80% implied probability of a December cut, stability remains uncertain.
2. FX Market: Dollar Index Weakens; Safe-Haven FX Under Pressure
Dollar index fell 0.3%; the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index also declined.
10-year U.S. Treasury yields held near 4.02% amid cautious sentiment.
Underlying logic:
Rate-cut repricing: Weak retail sales reinforced easing expectations, while firmer PPI prevented deeper dollar losses.
Risk sentiment: European equities edged higher (Euro Stoxx 50 +0.2%), and some capital rotated into non-USD assets.
3. Precious Metals: Gold Rises Against the Trend as Safe-Haven Demand Builds
Spot gold closed at $4,135/oz; COMEX gold futures followed higher.
WTI crude fell 1.9% to $57.72/bbl; Brent declined as well.
Bearish catalysts:
Demand fears: Weak U.S. retail sales reinforced global consumption concerns; EIA inventories expected to rise.
Supply pressure: Lower OPEC+ compliance and expectations of Russia ramping up exports added downward pressure.
5. Crypto: Bitcoin Drops Nearly 2% as Risk Appetite Fades
Bitcoin –1.9% to $87,098.6; Ethereum and altcoins also declined.
市場情緒：
Leverage unwinding: A break below key support triggered long liquidations, with total market liquidations rising.
Macro overhang: Dollar volatility and weakness in tech stocks spilled over into high-beta crypto assets.
6. Global Equities: Mixed Across Asia and Europe; Nikkei Edges Up 0.1%
Asia-Pacific: Nikkei 225 +0.1%, South Korea’s KOSPI +0.3%.
Europe: Euro Stoxx 50 +0.2%, DAX flat, CAC 40 +0.25%.
Transmission logic:
Optimism from Google’s AI chip developments supported tech sentiment, but Fed policy uncertainty capped gains.
II. Fundamental Synthesis
Markets on November 25 underwent risk repricing amid noisy data: conflicting PPI and retail sales figures underscored latent U.S. “stagflation” risks, while widening Fed policy disagreements heightened volatility.
Core logic chain:
Sticky inflation constrains policy: Rising PPI suggests persistent services inflation, strengthening the Fed’s hawkish camp.
Weak consumption signals slowdown: Soft retail sales validate labor-market cooling, giving doves more ammunition for cuts.
Valuation recalibration: High-valuation tech (led by Nvidia’s sharp drop) and weak oil demand drove cross-asset adjustments.
Risk warnings:
A hotter-than-expected PCE print on the 26th could reverse rate-cut trades.
If Bitcoin breaks below $85,000, another round of deleveraging may hit the crypto market.
III. Today’s focus
U.S. Initial Jobless Claims (week ending Nov. 22)
U.S. EIA Crude Inventory Data (week ending Nov. 21)
