Amillex Daily Market Commentary:“Hawkish rate cut” from the Fed and ongoing tech earnings continue to dominate market swings — this week’s key focus: can gold hold the $4,000 level as the main battleground between bulls and bears
November 3, 2025 — As expected, the Federal Reserve cut rates by 25 basis points last week but delivered a hawkish message that dampened expectations for another cut in December. The Nasdaq rose 2.24% for the week but showed wider daily fluctuations. Nvidia’s market capitalization surpassed $5 trillion, marking a historic milestone. Spot gold fell 2.65% but managed to hold above $4,000, while the U.S. dollar index climbed to 99.7, its highest level in two months. The market’s central theme remains the intense tug-of-war between “policy repricing” and “escalating geopolitical risks.”
U.S. Stock Market: Tech sector sees sharp divergence; Nvidia hits historic milestone
Milestone: Nvidia’s market cap surpassed $5 trillion, becoming the first publicly listed company to reach this level; shares gained over 8% for the week.
Polarized performance:
Leaders: Amazon +10.6% (cloud business growth hits three-year high); Google +5% (Q3 revenue tops $100 billion for the first time).
Laggards: Meta -11% (Q3 profit plunged 83%); Microsoft -2% (Azure cloud growth missed expectations).
關鍵驅動因素：
AI demand validation: Nvidia’s Blackwell chips projected to generate $500 billion in revenue over the next five quarters; Qualcomm launched AI200 chip to challenge market dominance.
Policy backdrop: Fed’s rate cut to 3.75%–4.00% eased financing pressure but the hawkish tone limited valuation expansion.
Precious Metals: Gold stabilizes above $4,000 after wild swings; central bank buying supports long-term outlook
Spot gold: Weekly range over 5%, briefly dipped to $3,870 before rebounding to close at $4,003.
Spot silver: +0.19% to $48.68, marking its sixth consecutive monthly gain.
Fundamentals:
Hawkish rate cut impact: Powell stated that “a December rate cut is not a given,” triggering a 3% single-day plunge in gold.
Geopolitical support: U.S. plans for potential military action against Venezuela and fragile Gaza ceasefire underscore gold’s safe-haven appeal.
Diverging forecasts: Citi remains short-term bearish (target $3,800), while HSBC sees gold rising to $4,400 in H1 2026.
Forex Market: Dollar hits two-month high as yen sinks to yearly low
Dollar: DXY +0.77% to 99.7, supported by hawkish Fed rhetoric.
Yen: Fell to ¥153.50 per USD, its weakest since February, as the BOJ kept policy unchanged, widening the rate differential.
Core logic: Divergent policy paths between the Fed (hawkish) and BOJ (dovish) have fueled renewed carry trade activity.
Commodities: Oil faces supply-demand tug-of-war as Venezuela risk premium rises
WTI crude: Down 1.2% for the week to $60.8, but rebounded Friday on reports the U.S. might conduct military strikes on Venezuela.
Drivers:
Supply pressure: Expectations of potential OPEC+ production hikes weighed on prices; EIA inventory drawdowns failed to offset weakness.
Geopolitical premium: Any U.S. military action against Venezuela could push oil prices up toward $65 in the short term.
Cryptocurrencies: Bitcoin falls nearly 4% as regulatory uncertainty grows
Major coins: Bitcoin -3.8% to $105,000; Ethereum followed lower.
Policy headwinds: The People’s Bank of China reiterated its crackdown on crypto speculation, while the U.S. SEC tightened scrutiny over stablecoins.
本週值得關注的重要事件
Fed speakers: Remarks from NY Fed President Williams and St. Louis Fed President Musalem — potential clues on December rate path.
Central banks:
Bank of England policy decision — expected to hold rates steady; divided votes may drive GBP volatility.
Reserve Bank of Australia — likely to keep rates unchanged amid persistent inflation.
U.S. data: ADP employment and ISM services PMI to serve as key indicators amid ongoing government shutdown (nonfarm payrolls possibly delayed again).
U.S. Supreme Court: Tariff authority case could limit presidential powers and ease trade tension concerns.
Geopolitical: Developments in Venezuela — escalation could boost oil’s risk premium.
Corporate earnings:
AMD: AI chip orders and OpenAI collaboration potential in focus.
Qualcomm: If new AI chip orders exceed expectations, it could challenge Nvidia’s dominance.
