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Amillex Daily Market Commentary: Weak Employment Data Triggers Rate-Cut Bets, U.S. Stocks and Bonds Slump, Gold Reverses Below $3,980

November 7, 2025 — U.S. stocks tumbled on Thursday, with the Nasdaq falling more than 1%. The U.S. dollar index slipped below the 100 mark, while Treasury yields plunged across the curve. Spot gold surged early but reversed to close below $3,980, and oil prices were weighed down by a sharp rise in inventories. Markets are locked in a tug-of-war between surging Fed rate-cut expectations for December and growing fears of an economic slowdown.

Market Highlights & Fundamentals

U.S. Equities: Weak Jobs Data Sparks Panic, Tech Leads Decline

The S&P 500 fell 0.7%, the Dow dropped 350 points (-0.75%), and the Nasdaq lost 1.1%. The Nasdaq-100 was down 1.2%.

Sector performance was mixed: the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell 1.3%, while energy stocks gained 0.63% on rebound expectations for crude oil.

Notable movers: Snap jumped 18% (advertising business recovery), Datadog surged 19% (strong demand for cloud monitoring).

Các yếu tố chính:

Labor market deterioration: The Challenger report showed October corporate layoffs hit a 20-year high, pushing the probability of a December rate cut to 60%.

Policy recalibration: Brown Brothers Harriman noted that “the Fed’s prolonged tightening may further expose fragility in the labor market.”

FX & Bonds: Dollar Breaks Below 100, Treasury Yields Plunge

The U.S. dollar index slipped 0.2% to 99.80, a one-week low.

The 10-year yield fell over 7 bps to 4.09%, and the 2-year yield dropped to 3.57%.

Market logic: Weak employment data reinforced rate-cut bets, driving flows into fixed income assets.

Among majors, the yen rebounded to 153.50, while the euro climbed to 1.1500 against the dollar.

Commodities: Gold’s V-Shaped Reversal Fails, Oil Pressured by Surging Inventories

Spot gold briefly hit $4,010 before retreating below $3,980, closing down 0.3%.

Market tension: Dovish rate expectations lend support, but tightening liquidity limits upside momentum.

Crude Oil:

WTI crude fell 0.5% to $59.50 per barrel as EIA inventories surged by 5.2 million barrels (vs. expectations for a 286,000-barrel draw).

Supply-demand imbalance: Rising U.S. production offset the impact of OPEC+ output cuts.

Cryptocurrencies: Bitcoin Holds $102K Support as Risk Appetite Fades

Major tokens weakened — Bitcoin slipped to $102,000, and Ethereum followed lower.

Market sentiment: Weakness in tech stocks spilled over to crypto, with leveraged long positions being unwound and volatility rising.

Tiêu điểm hôm nay

Số đơn xin trợ cấp thất nghiệp ban đầu tại Hoa Kỳ:

A reading above 220,000 could further cement December rate-cut bets.

Fed Governor Waller’s remarks:

Any dovish tone could boost risk assets.

Government shutdown:

Now on day 37, the longest in history — prolonged disruptions may delay the release of the nonfarm payroll report.

Thu nhập của công ty:

Disney and Airbnb will report after the bell; consumer resilience remains a key market indicator.