{"id":3373,"date":"2025-12-11T19:16:09","date_gmt":"2025-12-11T08:16:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.amillex.com\/?p=3373"},"modified":"2025-12-23T19:25:37","modified_gmt":"2025-12-23T08:25:37","slug":"20251210en","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.amillex.com\/pt\/2025\/12\/11\/20251210en\/","title":{"rendered":"Amillex Daily Market Commentary: The Fed Delivers Third 25bp Cut This Year, Internal Divisions Hit Six-Year High; Silver Surges Above $61 to a New Record\u00a0"},"content":{"rendered":"<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Key Takeaways from the December FOMC Meeting&nbsp;<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Federal funds rate: Target range lowered from 3.75%\u20134.00% to 3.50%\u20133.75%, marking the third consecutive 25bp rate cut this year and a total reduction of 75bp in 2025.&nbsp;<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Dot plot: Still signals only one rate cut in 2026, reinforcing a message of hawkish easing, with a significantly slower policy pace expected next year.&nbsp;<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Intensifying Internal Disagreements&nbsp;<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">The vote saw three dissents \u2014 the most since 2019.&nbsp;<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Governor Milan voted for a 50bp cut,&nbsp;<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">while Goolsbee and Schmid preferred no change.&nbsp;<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">This highlights widening divisions within the FOMC over inflation persistence and labor-market risks.&nbsp;<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Balance Sheet Operations&nbsp;<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Starting December 12, the Fed will purchase $40 billion in short-term Treasuries to maintain ample reserves and ease money-market liquidity pressures.&nbsp;<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Global Markets Review \u2013 December 10&nbsp;<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Precious Metals: Silver Leads as It Breaks to All-Time High; Gold\u2013Silver Ratio Falls Below 70&nbsp;<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Spot silver rose 0.68% to $61.05\/oz, up nearly 110% year-to-date.&nbsp;<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Gold slipped 0.27% to $4,196\/oz.&nbsp;<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Key drivers:&nbsp;<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Supply shortage: Global inventories at the lowest in a decade; solar and AI hardware demand continues to surge.&nbsp;<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Speculative flows: Retail and leveraged accounts aggressively positioning for a breakout.&nbsp;<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">FX &amp; Bonds: Dollar Steady, U.S. Yields Hold Near 3-Month High&nbsp;<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">DXY flat near 99.0, as markets had priced in the rate cut well in advance.&nbsp;<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">U.S. 10-yr yield steady at 4.20%, reflecting concerns over sticky inflation.&nbsp;<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">USD\/JPY up slightly to 156.70, with expectations of a BOJ December rate hike offsetting some Fed easing pressure.&nbsp;<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Oil &amp; Crypto: Geopolitics and Policy Uncertainty Intertwine&nbsp;<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Oil: Brent crude up 0.18% to $62.05\/bbl. Progress in Russia\u2013Ukraine peace talks (Zelensky proposing a phased peace framework) has capped geopolitical premiums.&nbsp;<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Crypto: Bitcoin flat at $92,623; Ethereum up 0.6% as markets await clearer guidance on the Fed\u2019s policy trajectory&nbsp;<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Equities: Caution Prevails Ahead of the FOMC Decision&nbsp;<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">U.S. equity futures: S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq 100 down 0.1%\u20130.2%, with tech investors awaiting Oracle\u2019s earnings for AI-related demand clues.&nbsp;<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Europe &amp; Asia:&nbsp;<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Nikkei 225 down 0.1%&nbsp;<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Euro Stoxx 50 down 0.06%, pressured by banks and energy names.&nbsp;<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Key Events to Watch Today&nbsp;<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Fed speakers: Chicago Fed President Goolsbee and Cleveland Fed President Mester (Harmack?) to comment on the economic outlook \u2014 markets will closely monitor their interpretations of the internal split.&nbsp;<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">BOJ Governor Ueda: Expected to firm up expectations for a December rate hike, which may trigger yen carry-trade unwinds.&nbsp;<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Data releases:&nbsp;<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Australia November unemployment rate (seasonally adjusted)&nbsp;<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Switzerland SNB policy rate (as of Dec 11)&nbsp;<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">U.S. initial jobless claims (week ending Dec 6)&nbsp;<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">U.S. September trade balance&nbsp;<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">U.S. September wholesale sales MoM&nbsp;<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">U.S. EIA natural gas storage (week ending Dec 5)&nbsp;<\/h2>\n<\/blockquote>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Key Takeaways from the December FOMC Meeting&nbsp; Federal funds rate: Target range lowered from 3.75%\u20134.00% to 3.50%\u20133.75%, marking the third consecutive 25bp rate cut this year and a total reduction of 75bp in 2025.&nbsp; Dot plot: Still signals only one rate cut in 2026, reinforcing a message of hawkish easing, with a significantly slower policy 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