{"id":3338,"date":"2025-12-09T20:20:47","date_gmt":"2025-12-09T09:20:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.amillex.com\/?p=3338"},"modified":"2025-12-23T19:25:17","modified_gmt":"2025-12-23T08:25:17","slug":"2025128en","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.amillex.com\/pt\/2025\/12\/09\/2025128en\/","title":{"rendered":"Amillex Daily Market Commentary: Cautious Trading Ahead of Fed Decision, U.S. Stocks Open Slightly Higher, Japanese Yields Hit 18-Year High, Copper Breaks USD 11,742 to Another Record"},"content":{"rendered":"<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">December 9, 2025 \u2014 The three major U.S. equity indices opened slightly higher, with the S&amp;P 500 up 0.07%; the U.S. Dollar Index edged lower while the yen remained under pressure; the 10-year Japanese government bond yield surged to 1.955%, the highest since July 2007; LME copper broke above USD 11,742\/ton to set another all-time high; Bitcoin rebounded to USD 91,223.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Key Markets &amp; Fundamental Analysis<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">1. U.S. Equity Market: Tech Leads Gains, Investors Await Fed Decision<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">S&amp;P 500: +0.07% to 6,875.20<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Dow Jones: +0.03% to 47,971.51<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Nasdaq: +0.25% to 23,638.22<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Sector Performance:<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Semiconductor ETF: +1.57%<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Technology ETF: +1.10%<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Energy ETF: \u20130.48%<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Notable Movers:<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Broadcom +1.48%: Continued optimism around AI chip demand<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Marvell Technology \u20139.8%: Benchmark warned it may lose Amazon orders<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Core Drivers:<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Rate-Cut Expectations Solidified:<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Markets are fully pricing in a 25 bps Fed rate cut in December; attention now turns to the dot plot and hints on the 2026 rate path.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Seasonality Support:<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Daniel Murray of EFG Asset Management noted that historical December strength and year-end positioning are attracting inflows.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">2. FX Market: Dollar Edges Lower, Yen Weakness Persists<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">The U.S. Dollar Index slipped slightly.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">EUR\/USD rose 0.1% to 1.1654.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">JPY\/USD hovered near 155, as Japan\u2019s GDP contraction deepened the policy dilemma.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Policy Context:<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Fed Caution:<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Barclays expects 2026 could become a \u201cpause year,\u201d with sticky inflation limiting the room for easing.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">BOJ Rate-Hike Pressure:<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Weak data (November Economy Watchers Index at 50.3, far below expectations) and surging bond yields create a policy contradiction.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">3. Bond Market: Global Selloff Intensifies, Japan &amp; Germany Hit Multi-Year Highs<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Japan Government Bonds:<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">10-year yield: 1.955%, highest since July 2007<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">5-year yield: 1.44%, highest since June 2008<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Drivers:<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">BOJ\u2019s December rate-hike probability rises to 70%<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Sharper-than-expected GDP contraction triggered risk-off selling<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">European Bonds:<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">German 10-year yield: 2.84%, highest since March<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">30-year yield: 3.441%, highest since 2011<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Hawkish Signals:<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">ECB official Isabel Schnabel said she \u201cwelcomes market pricing for rate hikes,\u201d prompting money markets to trim rate-cut expectations.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">4. Commodities: Copper Sets New Record, Oil Rebalances on Mixed Signals<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Copper Market:<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">LME copper broke USD 11,742\/ton<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Shanghai futures followed higher<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Fundamental Support:<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Supply Disruptions:<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">The impact of Glencore\u2019s Chile mine accident continues; LME inventories fell below 100,000 tons.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Demand Boom:<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">AI data-center buildout and power-grid upgrades support long-term demand; tariff-avoidance stocking further tightens spot supply.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Oil Market:<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">WTI crude hovered around USD 60\/barrel<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Brent traded at USD 63.75\/barrel<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Push &amp; Pull Factors:<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">OPEC+ compliance weakened (November output \u201330,000 bpd)<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">U.S. rig count rose by 5 to 549, adding supply pressure<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">5. Precious Metals &amp; Crypto: Gold Steady, Bitcoin Rebounds<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Precious Metals:<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Spot gold held near USD 4,220, supported by central-bank demand<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">China\u2019s gold reserves rose for the 13th consecutive month<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Cryptocurrencies:<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Bitcoin: +1.1% to USD 91,223<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Ethereum: +1.2% to USD 3,123<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Market Sentiment:<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Fed rate-cut expectations lifted risk assets,<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">But regulatory pressure persists: seven Chinese associations jointly issued warnings about virtual-currency risks.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Today\u2019s focus<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">U.S. NY Fed 1-year inflation expectations (November)<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Reserve Bank of Australia rate decision (Dec 9)<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Germany October trade balance (seasonally adjusted)<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">U.S. NFIB Small Business Optimism Index (November)<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">U.S. JOLTS Job Openings (October)<\/h2>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>December 9, 2025 \u2014 The three major U.S. equity indices opened slightly higher, with the S&amp;P 500 up 0.07%; the U.S. Dollar Index edged lower while the yen remained under pressure; the 10-year Japanese government bond yield surged to 1.955%, the highest since July 2007; LME copper broke above USD 11,742\/ton to set another all-time [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":3339,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"ocean_post_layout":"","ocean_both_sidebars_style":"","ocean_both_sidebars_content_width":0,"ocean_both_sidebars_sidebars_width":0,"ocean_sidebar":"","ocean_second_sidebar":"","ocean_disable_margins":"enable","ocean_add_body_class":"","ocean_shortcode_before_top_bar":"","ocean_shortcode_after_top_bar":"","ocean_shortcode_before_header":"","ocean_shortcode_after_header":"","ocean_has_shortcode":"","ocean_shortcode_after_title":"","ocean_shortcode_before_footer_widgets":"","ocean_shortcode_after_footer_widgets":"","ocean_shortcode_before_footer_bottom":"","ocean_shortcode_after_footer_bottom":"","ocean_display_top_bar":"default","ocean_display_header":"default","ocean_header_style":"","ocean_center_header_left_menu":"","ocean_custom_header_template":"","ocean_custom_logo":0,"ocean_custom_retina_logo":0,"ocean_custom_logo_max_width":0,"ocean_custom_logo_tablet_max_width":0,"ocean_custom_logo_mobile_max_width":0,"ocean_custom_logo_max_height":0,"ocean_custom_logo_tablet_max_height":0,"ocean_custom_logo_mobile_max_height":0,"ocean_header_custom_menu":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_family":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_subset":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_size":0,"ocean_menu_typo_font_size_tablet":0,"ocean_menu_typo_font_size_mobile":0,"ocean_menu_typo_font_size_unit":"px","ocean_menu_typo_font_weight":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_weight_tablet":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_weight_mobile":"","ocean_menu_typo_transform":"","ocean_menu_typo_transform_tablet":"","ocean_menu_typo_transform_mobile":"","ocean_menu_typo_line_height":0,"ocean_menu_typo_line_height_tablet":0,"ocean_menu_typo_line_height_mobile":0,"ocean_menu_typo_line_height_unit":"","ocean_menu_typo_spacing":0,"ocean_menu_typo_spacing_tablet":0,"ocean_menu_typo_spacing_mobile":0,"ocean_menu_typo_spacing_unit":"","ocean_menu_link_color":"","ocean_menu_link_color_hover":"","ocean_menu_link_color_active":"","ocean_menu_link_background":"","ocean_menu_link_hover_background":"","ocean_menu_link_active_background":"","ocean_menu_social_links_bg":"","ocean_menu_social_hover_links_bg":"","ocean_menu_social_links_color":"","ocean_menu_social_hover_links_color":"","ocean_disable_title":"default","ocean_disable_heading":"default","ocean_post_title":"","ocean_post_subheading":"","ocean_post_title_style":"","ocean_post_title_background_color":"","ocean_post_title_background":0,"ocean_post_title_bg_image_position":"","ocean_post_title_bg_image_attachment":"","ocean_post_title_bg_image_repeat":"","ocean_post_title_bg_image_size":"","ocean_post_title_height":0,"ocean_post_title_bg_overlay":0.5,"ocean_post_title_bg_overlay_color":"","ocean_disable_breadcrumbs":"default","ocean_breadcrumbs_color":"","ocean_breadcrumbs_separator_color":"","ocean_breadcrumbs_links_color":"","ocean_breadcrumbs_links_hover_color":"","ocean_display_footer_widgets":"default","ocean_display_footer_bottom":"default","ocean_custom_footer_template":"","_glsr_average":0,"_glsr_ranking":0,"_glsr_reviews":0,"ocean_post_oembed":"","ocean_post_self_hosted_media":"","ocean_post_video_embed":"","ocean_link_format":"","ocean_link_format_target":"self","ocean_quote_format":"","ocean_quote_format_link":"post","ocean_gallery_link_images":"on","ocean_gallery_id":[],"footnotes":""},"categories":[8],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3338","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-english-news","entry","has-media"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.amillex.com\/pt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3338","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.amillex.com\/pt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.amillex.com\/pt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.amillex.com\/pt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.amillex.com\/pt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3338"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.amillex.com\/pt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3338\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":3340,"href":"https:\/\/www.amillex.com\/pt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3338\/revisions\/3340"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.amillex.com\/pt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/3339"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.amillex.com\/pt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3338"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.amillex.com\/pt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3338"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.amillex.com\/pt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3338"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}