{"id":3331,"date":"2025-12-08T16:21:08","date_gmt":"2025-12-08T05:21:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.amillex.com\/?p=3331"},"modified":"2025-12-23T19:31:20","modified_gmt":"2025-12-23T08:31:20","slug":"2025127en","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.amillex.com\/pt\/2025\/12\/08\/2025127en\/","title":{"rendered":"Amillex Daily Market Commentary: Fed Rate-Cut Expectations Ignite Risk Asset Rally, U.S. Dollar Falls for Two Consecutive Weeks, Copper Soars to Record High, BOJ Rate-Hike Signals Shock Markets"},"content":{"rendered":"<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">December 8, 2025 \u2014 The U.S. Dollar Index slid to 99.00, a five-week low; spot gold closed at USD 4,196.14\/oz, while silver surged 3.32% for the week; London copper broke above USD 11,375\/ton to a record high; all three major U.S. equity indices closed higher, led by the Nasdaq.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Weekly Performance &amp; Fundamental Analysis Across Asset Classes<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">1. FX Market: Dollar Falls for Two Straight Weeks, Yen Rate-Hike Expectations Rise<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">U.S. Dollar Index:<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Down 0.8% for the week to 99.00, marking the second consecutive weekly decline.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Major Currency Moves:<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">EUR\/USD broke above 1.1650<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">GBP\/USD touched 1.3300<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">USD\/JPY fell below 155.00, marking its largest weekly decline since late September<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Key Drivers:<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Fed Rate-Cut Probability Surges to 90%:<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">ADP employment fell by 32,000 (vs. expected +10,000), while initial jobless claims dropped to 191,000 (a three-year low). The conflicting data reinforced hopes for monetary easing.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">BOJ Rate-Hike Signals:<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Governor Kazuo Ueda stated the BOJ would \u201cweigh the pros and cons of a rate hike.\u201d The probability of a December hike climbed to 70%, pushing Japanese government bond yields to their highest levels since 2007.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">2. Precious Metals: Silver Leads with Record High, Gold Consolidates at Elevated Levels<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Spot Silver: +3.32% for the week to USD 58.25\/oz<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Spot Gold: -0.5% for the week to USD 4,196.14\/oz<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Fundamental Analysis:<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Silver Supply-Demand Imbalance:<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Explosive growth in photovoltaic demand, coupled with global inventories falling to a 10-year low. A spike in leasing rates highlights severe spot market tightness.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Safe-Haven &amp; Rate-Cut Resonance:<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Fed rate-cut expectations supported gold, though dollar resilience limited upside.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">3. Commodities: Copper Hits Record High, Geopolitical Premium in Oil Eases<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Copper Market:<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">LME copper rose over 2% to USD 11,375\/ton<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Shanghai copper main contract surged past RMB 90,000\/ton<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Key Drivers:<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Supply Disruptions:<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">A mining accident at Glencore\u2019s Chile operations forced output cuts. LME canceled warrants surged, with Mercuria withdrawing 50,000 tons.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Tariff Avoidance Trade:<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Traders rushed to ship physical copper to the U.S., driving regional spot premiums sharply higher.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Oil Market:<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">WTI crude closed flat for the week at USD 59.33\/barrel<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Bull-Bear Tug of War:<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Progress in Russia\u2013Ukraine peace talks dampened geopolitical risk premiums<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">However, U.S. EIA inventories rose by 2.8 million barrels, exceeding expectations and capping gains<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">4. Equities &amp; Bonds: U.S. Tech Stocks Lead, Japanese Bonds Face Heavy Selling<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">U.S. Equity Performance:<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">S&amp;P 500: +0.3%<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Nasdaq: +0.4%<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Dow Jones: modest gains<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Sector Highlights:<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Tech stocks (Microsoft, Meta) outperformed on rate-cut optimism<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Energy stocks underperformed<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Bond Market Developments:<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">U.S. 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 4.138%<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Japanese yield curve steepened sharply (30-year JGB yield rose to 3.445%)<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">5. Cryptocurrencies: Bitcoin Stabilizes Above USD 93,000, Regulatory Overhang Persists<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Major Tokens:<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Bitcoin: +1.2% for the week to USD 93,075<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Ethereum followed higher<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Policy Risks:<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">The PBOC reiterated its crackdown on illegal virtual-currency financial activities<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">The U.S. SEC intensified regulatory scrutiny<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">In-Depth Analysis of Core Events &amp; Policy Backdrop<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">1. Fed December Rate Cut Now a Market Consensus<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Data Support:<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Weak ADP jobs data and stable PCE inflation at 2.8% provide room for monetary easing.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Personnel Changes:<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Trump is reportedly considering nominating dovish candidate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed Chair, reinforcing expectations for further easing in 2026.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Institutional Views:<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">JPMorgan expects a 25-basis-point rate cut in December, followed by two additional cuts in 2026.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">2. BOJ Rate-Hike Expectations Trigger Global Bond Market Shock<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Policy Signals:<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Ueda unusually referenced smooth communication with Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, implying government acquiescence to a rate hike.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Market Impact:<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Heavy selloffs in Japanese bonds spilled over globally; U.S. Treasury yields followed higher, intensifying unwinding pressure on carry trades.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">3. Escalating Copper Supply Crisis<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Inventory Alert:<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">LME stocks dropped below the critical 100,000-ton threshold, worsening spot tightness.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Demand Outlook:<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">AI computing power expansion and power grid upgrades are driving long-term demand. The IEA warns that global copper supply could face a 20% shortfall by 2035.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Key Economic Events to Watch This Week<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">U.S. Federal Reserve rate decision<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Policy meetings by multiple central banks:<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Reserve Bank of Australia<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Bank of Canada<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Swiss National Bank<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">China\u2019s Central Economic Work Conference (mid-December)<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">China\u2019s November CPI &amp; PPI<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">U.S. JOLTS job openings<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Eurozone GDP &amp; CPI<\/h2>\n<\/blockquote>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>December 8, 2025 \u2014 The U.S. Dollar Index slid to 99.00, a five-week low; spot gold closed at USD 4,196.14\/oz, while silver surged 3.32% for the week; London copper broke above USD 11,375\/ton to a record high; all three major U.S. equity indices closed higher, led by the Nasdaq. Weekly Performance &amp; Fundamental Analysis Across [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":3332,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"ocean_post_layout":"","ocean_both_sidebars_style":"","ocean_both_sidebars_content_width":0,"ocean_both_sidebars_sidebars_width":0,"ocean_sidebar":"","ocean_second_sidebar":"","ocean_disable_margins":"enable","ocean_add_body_class":"","ocean_shortcode_before_top_bar":"","ocean_shortcode_after_top_bar":"","ocean_shortcode_before_header":"","ocean_shortcode_after_header":"","ocean_has_shortcode":"","ocean_shortcode_after_title":"","ocean_shortcode_before_footer_widgets":"","ocean_shortcode_after_footer_widgets":"","ocean_shortcode_before_footer_bottom":"","ocean_shortcode_after_footer_bottom":"","ocean_display_top_bar":"default","ocean_display_header":"default","ocean_header_style":"","ocean_center_header_left_menu":"","ocean_custom_header_template":"","ocean_custom_logo":0,"ocean_custom_retina_logo":0,"ocean_custom_logo_max_width":0,"ocean_custom_logo_tablet_max_width":0,"ocean_custom_logo_mobile_max_width":0,"ocean_custom_logo_max_height":0,"ocean_custom_logo_tablet_max_height":0,"ocean_custom_logo_mobile_max_height":0,"ocean_header_custom_menu":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_family":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_subset":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_size":0,"ocean_menu_typo_font_size_tablet":0,"ocean_menu_typo_font_size_mobile":0,"ocean_menu_typo_font_size_unit":"px","ocean_menu_typo_font_weight":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_weight_tablet":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_weight_mobile":"","ocean_menu_typo_transform":"","ocean_menu_typo_transform_tablet":"","ocean_menu_typo_transform_mobile":"","ocean_menu_typo_line_height":0,"ocean_menu_typo_line_height_tablet":0,"ocean_menu_typo_line_height_mobile":0,"ocean_menu_typo_line_height_unit":"","ocean_menu_typo_spacing":0,"ocean_menu_typo_spacing_tablet":0,"ocean_menu_typo_spacing_mobile":0,"ocean_menu_typo_spacing_unit":"","ocean_menu_link_color":"","ocean_menu_link_color_hover":"","ocean_menu_link_color_active":"","ocean_menu_link_background":"","ocean_menu_link_hover_background":"","ocean_menu_link_active_background":"","ocean_menu_social_links_bg":"","ocean_menu_social_hover_links_bg":"","ocean_menu_social_links_color":"","ocean_menu_social_hover_links_color":"","ocean_disable_title":"default","ocean_disable_heading":"default","ocean_post_title":"","ocean_post_subheading":"","ocean_post_title_style":"","ocean_post_title_background_color":"","ocean_post_title_background":0,"ocean_post_title_bg_image_position":"","ocean_post_title_bg_image_attachment":"","ocean_post_title_bg_image_repeat":"","ocean_post_title_bg_image_size":"","ocean_post_title_height":0,"ocean_post_title_bg_overlay":0.5,"ocean_post_title_bg_overlay_color":"","ocean_disable_breadcrumbs":"default","ocean_breadcrumbs_color":"","ocean_breadcrumbs_separator_color":"","ocean_breadcrumbs_links_color":"","ocean_breadcrumbs_links_hover_color":"","ocean_display_footer_widgets":"default","ocean_display_footer_bottom":"default","ocean_custom_footer_template":"","_glsr_average":0,"_glsr_ranking":0,"_glsr_reviews":0,"ocean_post_oembed":"","ocean_post_self_hosted_media":"","ocean_post_video_embed":"","ocean_link_format":"","ocean_link_format_target":"self","ocean_quote_format":"","ocean_quote_format_link":"post","ocean_gallery_link_images":"on","ocean_gallery_id":[],"footnotes":""},"categories":[8],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3331","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-english-news","entry","has-media"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.amillex.com\/pt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3331","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.amillex.com\/pt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.amillex.com\/pt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.amillex.com\/pt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.amillex.com\/pt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3331"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.amillex.com\/pt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3331\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":3333,"href":"https:\/\/www.amillex.com\/pt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3331\/revisions\/3333"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.amillex.com\/pt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/3332"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.amillex.com\/pt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3331"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.amillex.com\/pt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3331"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.amillex.com\/pt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3331"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}