{"id":3232,"date":"2025-11-27T20:20:07","date_gmt":"2025-11-27T09:20:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.amillex.com\/?p=3232"},"modified":"2025-12-23T19:26:15","modified_gmt":"2025-12-23T08:26:15","slug":"20251126en","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.amillex.com\/pt\/2025\/11\/27\/20251126en\/","title":{"rendered":"Amillex Daily Market Commentary:Rate-Cut Bets Ignite Global Risk Rally; U.S. Equities Rise Broadly, Gold Breaks Above $4,150, Dollar Slides Below 100"},"content":{"rendered":"
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November 27, 2025 \u2014 Global markets surged on Wednesday as optimism over a \u201c90% probability of a December Fed rate cut\u201d drove a broad-based risk rally. All three major U.S. equity indices opened higher, with the S&P 500 up 0.41% and the Nasdaq up 0.60%. The U.S. Dollar Index fell to 99.78 as non-USD currencies strengthened; spot gold broke above $4,150\/oz, hitting a three-week high; Bitcoin pulled back slightly to $86,700.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

1. Key Market Moves & Macro Drivers<\/p>\n\n\n\n

1. U.S. Equities: Tech Leads; Oracle Surges 6% on Blowout Earnings<\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 rose 0.41% to 6,793.55<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dow Jones up 0.18% to 47,196.15<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nasdaq up 0.60% to 23,163.19<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Sector highlights:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Semiconductor ETF +1.73%<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Technology ETF +1.13%<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Banking ETF \u22120.13%<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Corporate movers:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Oracle +6%: AI-driven database demand surges; Q3 cloud revenue growth hit a record high<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dell +4%: AI server orders surged; full-year shipment target raised to USD 25 billion<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Key drivers:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dovish expectations intensify:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Fed\u2019s December rate-cut probability jumped to 90%; White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett (a strong rate-cut advocate) emerges as a top contender for the Fed Chair role.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Data-dependent justification:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

September retail sales rose just 0.2% MoM, signaling a slowdown and reinforcing the easing narrative.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

2. FX Market: Dollar Drops to 99.78; Yen Weakness Persists<\/p>\n\n\n\n

DXY dipped 0.05% to 99.78<\/p>\n\n\n\n

EUR\/USD rose to 1.1580; GBP\/USD to 1.3180<\/p>\n\n\n\n

USD\/JPY weakened to 156.39<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Policy backdrop:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Fed pivot:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Governor Milhan called for \u201csubstantial rate cuts\u201d; Vice Chair Williams hinted at near-term policy flexibility.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

BOJ dilemma:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Rate-hike expectations clash with Japan\u2019s fiscal stimulus plans; yen remains pressured by carry trades.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

3. Precious Metals: Gold Breaks Above $4,150 on Rate-Cut Bets + Geopolitical Risk<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Spot gold up 0.45% to $4,149\/oz; COMEX futures followed higher.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Supportive factors:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Uncertainty around Russia\u2013Ukraine peace talks (Trump set Nov. 27 as a \u201cfinal deadline\u201d).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. real-rate expectations moved lower.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Technical note:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Daily chart holds above $4,100; short-term upside targets $4,200.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

4. Commodities: Oil Rebalances; Agricultural Futures Diverge<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Crude oil:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Brent +0.03% to $61.80\/bbl<\/p>\n\n\n\n

WTI flat<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Fundamental insights:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Geopolitical easing: Russian-Ukrainian negotiations progress, reducing supply-disruption fears.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Demand strength:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

China\u2019s October crude imports up 12% YoY; EIA inventories down 2.8 million barrels WoW.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Agriculture:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Corn +1.2% (U.S. export demand strong)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Soybeans +0.8%<\/p>\n\n\n\n

5. Crypto: Bitcoin Pulls Back Slightly; Long Leverage Unwinds<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bitcoin \u22120.2% to $86,790<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ethereum \u22120.4% to $2,918<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Sentiment drivers:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Capital rotation: U.S. equity strength draws flows away from crypto.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Regulatory pressure: U.S. SEC intensifies stablecoin scrutiny; Coinbase sees USD 120M net outflows.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

6. Global Equities: Asia & Europe Follow Wall Street Higher<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nikkei 225 +1.8% to 49,559<\/p>\n\n\n\n

KOSPI +2.7% to 3,960<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Euro Stoxx 50 +0.6%; DAX +0.55%<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Transmission mechanism:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dovish Fed signals boost global liquidity expectations, lifting both tech and cyclical sectors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n