{"id":3226,"date":"2025-11-26T14:22:09","date_gmt":"2025-11-26T03:22:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.amillex.com\/?p=3226"},"modified":"2025-12-23T19:26:25","modified_gmt":"2025-12-23T08:26:25","slug":"20251125en","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.amillex.com\/pt\/2025\/11\/26\/20251125en\/","title":{"rendered":"Amillex Daily Market Commentary: Divergent U.S. Economic Data Fuels Debate Over Rate-Cut Path; Nvidia Slumps 5%, Gold Defies Gravity and Breaks Above $4,135, Crude Falls Below $58"},"content":{"rendered":"<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">November 26, 2025 \u2014 U.S. equities ended mixed, with the S&amp;P 500 down 0.12%, the Nasdaq slipping 0.30%, and the Dow edging up 0.07%. Tech stocks dragged markets lower as Nvidia plunged more than 5%. The U.S. dollar index fell 0.3%, while spot gold surged against the trend to $4,135\/oz. WTI crude dropped 1.9% to $57.72\/bbl, and Bitcoin slid 1.9% below the $87,000 mark.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">I. Key Market Moves &amp; Fundamental Analysis<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">1. U.S. Equities: Tech Drags Nasdaq Lower as Nvidia Drops Over 5%<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">S&amp;P 500 fell 0.12% to 6,697.03, Dow rose 0.07% to 46,482.36, Nasdaq declined 0.30% to 22,802.85.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Sector performance:<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Bank ETF +1.54%, Regional Bank ETF +1.51%<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Tech ETF \u20130.91%, Semiconductor ETF \u20131.52%<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Stock highlights:<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Nvidia \u20135%+: Rising valuation concerns in AI chips triggered concentrated profit-taking.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Alphabet strengthened: Reports that Meta plans to procure Google AI chips supported sentiment.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Macro drivers:<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Conflicting data:<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">September PPI rose MoM, signalling sticky inflation.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Retail sales rose just 0.2% (far below expectations), highlighting weakening consumer momentum and rising slowdown risks.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Policy divergence:<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Fed Governor Milan advocated aggressive rate cuts.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">However, firmer inflation limits dovish room.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Despite a &gt;80% implied probability of a December cut, stability remains uncertain.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">2. FX Market: Dollar Index Weakens; Safe-Haven FX Under Pressure<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Dollar index fell 0.3%; the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index also declined.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">10-year U.S. Treasury yields held near 4.02% amid cautious sentiment.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Underlying logic:<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Rate-cut repricing: Weak retail sales reinforced easing expectations, while firmer PPI prevented deeper dollar losses.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Risk sentiment: European equities edged higher (Euro Stoxx 50 +0.2%), and some capital rotated into non-USD assets.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">3. Precious Metals: Gold Rises Against the Trend as Safe-Haven Demand Builds<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Spot gold closed at $4,135\/oz; COMEX gold futures followed higher.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Supportive factors:<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Data conflicts increased risk aversion: Slowdown fears + inflation uncertainty boosted safe-haven flows.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Fed dovish tone: Governor Milan\u2019s call for rate cuts lowered real-rate expectations, lifting gold.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">4. Energy: Demand Concerns Push Crude Lower; WTI Falls Below $58<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">WTI crude fell 1.9% to $57.72\/bbl; Brent declined as well.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Bearish catalysts:<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Demand fears: Weak U.S. retail sales reinforced global consumption concerns; EIA inventories expected to rise.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Supply pressure: Lower OPEC+ compliance and expectations of Russia ramping up exports added downward pressure.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">5. Crypto: Bitcoin Drops Nearly 2% as Risk Appetite Fades<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Bitcoin \u20131.9% to $87,098.6; Ethereum and altcoins also declined.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Market sentiment:<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Leverage unwinding: A break below key support triggered long liquidations, with total market liquidations rising.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Macro overhang: Dollar volatility and weakness in tech stocks spilled over into high-beta crypto assets.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">6. Global Equities: Mixed Across Asia and Europe; Nikkei Edges Up 0.1%<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Asia-Pacific: Nikkei 225 +0.1%, South Korea\u2019s KOSPI +0.3%.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Europe: Euro Stoxx 50 +0.2%, DAX flat, CAC 40 +0.25%.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Transmission logic:<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Optimism from Google\u2019s AI chip developments supported tech sentiment, but Fed policy uncertainty capped gains.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">II. Fundamental Synthesis<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Markets on November 25 underwent risk repricing amid noisy data: conflicting PPI and retail sales figures underscored latent U.S. \u201cstagflation\u201d risks, while widening Fed policy disagreements heightened volatility.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Core logic chain:<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Sticky inflation constrains policy: Rising PPI suggests persistent services inflation, strengthening the Fed\u2019s hawkish camp.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Weak consumption signals slowdown: Soft retail sales validate labor-market cooling, giving doves more ammunition for cuts.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Valuation recalibration: High-valuation tech (led by Nvidia\u2019s sharp drop) and weak oil demand drove cross-asset adjustments.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Risk warnings:<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">A hotter-than-expected PCE print on the 26th could reverse rate-cut trades.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">If Bitcoin breaks below $85,000, another round of deleveraging may hit the crypto market.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">III. Today\u2019s focus<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">U.S. Initial Jobless Claims (week ending Nov. 22)<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">U.S. EIA Crude Inventory Data (week ending Nov. 21)<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Reserve Bank of New Zealand rate decision<\/h2>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>November 26, 2025 \u2014 U.S. equities ended mixed, with the S&amp;P 500 down 0.12%, the Nasdaq slipping 0.30%, and the Dow edging up 0.07%. Tech stocks dragged markets lower as Nvidia plunged more than 5%. The U.S. dollar index fell 0.3%, while spot gold surged against the trend to $4,135\/oz. WTI crude dropped 1.9% to [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":3227,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"ocean_post_layout":"","ocean_both_sidebars_style":"","ocean_both_sidebars_content_width":0,"ocean_both_sidebars_sidebars_width":0,"ocean_sidebar":"","ocean_second_sidebar":"","ocean_disable_margins":"enable","ocean_add_body_class":"","ocean_shortcode_before_top_bar":"","ocean_shortcode_after_top_bar":"","ocean_shortcode_before_header":"","ocean_shortcode_after_header":"","ocean_has_shortcode":"","ocean_shortcode_after_title":"","ocean_shortcode_before_footer_widgets":"","ocean_shortcode_after_footer_widgets":"","ocean_shortcode_before_footer_bottom":"","ocean_shortcode_after_footer_bottom":"","ocean_display_top_bar":"default","ocean_display_header":"default","ocean_header_style":"","ocean_center_header_left_menu":"","ocean_custom_header_template":"","ocean_custom_logo":0,"ocean_custom_retina_logo":0,"ocean_custom_logo_max_width":0,"ocean_custom_logo_tablet_max_width":0,"ocean_custom_logo_mobile_max_width":0,"ocean_custom_logo_max_height":0,"ocean_custom_logo_tablet_max_height":0,"ocean_custom_logo_mobile_max_height":0,"ocean_header_custom_menu":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_family":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_subset":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_size":0,"ocean_menu_typo_font_size_tablet":0,"ocean_menu_typo_font_size_mobile":0,"ocean_menu_typo_font_size_unit":"px","ocean_menu_typo_font_weight":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_weight_tablet":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_weight_mobile":"","ocean_menu_typo_transform":"","ocean_menu_typo_transform_tablet":"","ocean_menu_typo_transform_mobile":"","ocean_menu_typo_line_height":0,"ocean_menu_typo_line_height_tablet":0,"ocean_menu_typo_line_height_mobile":0,"ocean_menu_typo_line_height_unit":"","ocean_menu_typo_spacing":0,"ocean_menu_typo_spacing_tablet":0,"ocean_menu_typo_spacing_mobile":0,"ocean_menu_typo_spacing_unit":"","ocean_menu_link_color":"","ocean_menu_link_color_hover":"","ocean_menu_link_color_active":"","ocean_menu_link_background":"","ocean_menu_link_hover_background":"","ocean_menu_link_active_background":"","ocean_menu_social_links_bg":"","ocean_menu_social_hover_links_bg":"","ocean_menu_social_links_color":"","ocean_menu_social_hover_links_color":"","ocean_disable_title":"default","ocean_disable_heading":"default","ocean_post_title":"","ocean_post_subheading":"","ocean_post_title_style":"","ocean_post_title_background_color":"","ocean_post_title_background":0,"ocean_post_title_bg_image_position":"","ocean_post_title_bg_image_attachment":"","ocean_post_title_bg_image_repeat":"","ocean_post_title_bg_image_size":"","ocean_post_title_height":0,"ocean_post_title_bg_overlay":0.5,"ocean_post_title_bg_overlay_color":"","ocean_disable_breadcrumbs":"default","ocean_breadcrumbs_color":"","ocean_breadcrumbs_separator_color":"","ocean_breadcrumbs_links_color":"","ocean_breadcrumbs_links_hover_color":"","ocean_display_footer_widgets":"default","ocean_display_footer_bottom":"default","ocean_custom_footer_template":"","_glsr_average":0,"_glsr_ranking":0,"_glsr_reviews":0,"ocean_post_oembed":"","ocean_post_self_hosted_media":"","ocean_post_video_embed":"","ocean_link_format":"","ocean_link_format_target":"self","ocean_quote_format":"","ocean_quote_format_link":"post","ocean_gallery_link_images":"on","ocean_gallery_id":[],"footnotes":""},"categories":[8],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3226","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-english-news","entry","has-media"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.amillex.com\/pt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3226","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.amillex.com\/pt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.amillex.com\/pt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.amillex.com\/pt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.amillex.com\/pt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3226"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.amillex.com\/pt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3226\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":3228,"href":"https:\/\/www.amillex.com\/pt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3226\/revisions\/3228"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.amillex.com\/pt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/3227"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.amillex.com\/pt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3226"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.amillex.com\/pt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3226"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.amillex.com\/pt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3226"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}