{"id":3217,"date":"2025-11-25T15:21:23","date_gmt":"2025-11-25T04:21:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.amillex.com\/?p=3217"},"modified":"2025-12-23T19:26:32","modified_gmt":"2025-12-23T08:26:32","slug":"20251124en","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.amillex.com\/pt\/2025\/11\/25\/20251124en\/","title":{"rendered":"Amillex Daily Market Commentary: Fed Rate-Cut Expectations Strengthen and Boost Risk Assets; Nasdaq Rises Nearly 1.8%; Bitcoin Falls Below $87,000, Marking Its Worst Monthly Performance in Three Years"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

November 25, 2025 \u2014 U.S. equities opened sharply higher across the board, with the Nasdaq gaining nearly 1.8%. The dollar index stabilized, the yen weakened to 156.68, spot gold edged down to $4,055, and Bitcoin extended its downturn below $87,000, posting its worst monthly decline since 2022. Market dynamics continue to revolve around the tug-of-war between \u201cpolicy easing trades\u201d and \u201cdeleveraging in high-volatility assets.\u201d<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

I. Key Market Moves & Fundamental Analysis<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

1. U.S. Equities: Tech and China ADRs Lead Gains; Rate-Cut Probability Rebounds to 60%<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 rose nearly 1%, Dow gained 0.34%, Nasdaq surged 1.8%.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index jumped 2.41%, outperforming broader markets.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Sector highlights: Semiconductors (Nvidia flat), AI stocks (Alphabet A +5.6%) led gains; Tesla rallied over 6%.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Fed dovish tone: New York Fed President Williams said \u201cnear-term rate cuts remain possible\u201d; Goldman Sachs expects the third rate cut to begin in December.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

China ADR catalysts: Alibaba\u2019s Qianwen app surpassed 10 million downloads, pushing the stock up more than 5%.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

2. FX Market: Yen Weakens to 156.68, European Fiscal Risks Re-Emerge<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The dollar index was flat, while the yen depreciated to 156.68 per dollar, nearing the psychological intervention threshold.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

EUR and GBP fluctuated amid renewed concerns over fiscal sustainability following France\u2019s budget veto.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Policy backdrop:<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

U.S.\u2013Japan divergence: Rising U.S. rate-cut expectations contrast with the BOJ\u2019s persistently ultra-loose stance.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Europe risk: The UK may announce tax hikes in Wednesday\u2019s budget; Italy\u2019s rating upgrade offered limited support.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

3. Precious Metals: Gold Edges Down to $4,055, Pressured by Dollar & Rates<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Spot gold dipped 0.2% to $4,055.88\/oz.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Short-term pressures: Dollar resilience and higher Treasury yields reduced safe-haven appeal.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Technical levels: Daily pivot sits at $4,063; a breakdown could open room toward $3,946.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

4. Energy: Oil Market Finds Balance; Geopolitical Risks Offer Mild Support<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

WTI crude rose 0.2% to $58.19\/bbl.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Drivers:<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Supportive: Uncertainty around Russia\u2013Ukraine peace talks (the U.S. 28-point plan was rejected) raised concerns about potential supply disruptions.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Headwinds: Rising EIA inventories and weakening OPEC+ compliance capped upside.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

5. Crypto: Bitcoin Posts Worst Monthly Drop in Three Years; Liquidations Continue<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Bitcoin fell 1.3% to $86,807; Ethereum slipped 0.9%.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Market sentiment:<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Technical breakdown: $85,200 serves as key support; a breach could trigger quant-driven selling.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Regulatory pressure: U.S. SEC tightening scrutiny on stablecoins; PBoC reiterated a crackdown on speculative activity.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

6. Asia-Pacific & Bonds: Indonesia Hits Record High; U.S. Yields Decline<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

APAC equities: Indonesia\u2019s benchmark index rose 1% to a record 8,499.72; Japanese and Korean stocks diverged.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Bond market: Rising U.S. rate-cut expectations pulled the 10-year Treasury yield lower, easing immediate safe-haven demand.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

II. Today\u2019s focus<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

U.S. September PPI data<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Huawei All-Scenario Product Launch Event<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Earnings: Alibaba, NIO<\/h2>\n<\/blockquote>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

November 25, 2025 \u2014 U.S. equities opened sharply higher across the board, with the Nasdaq gaining nearly 1.8%. The dollar index stabilized, the yen weakened to 156.68, spot gold edged down to $4,055, and Bitcoin extended its downturn below $87,000, posting its worst monthly decline since 2022. Market dynamics continue to revolve around the tug-of-war […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":3218,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"ocean_post_layout":"","ocean_both_sidebars_style":"","ocean_both_sidebars_content_width":0,"ocean_both_sidebars_sidebars_width":0,"ocean_sidebar":"","ocean_second_sidebar":"","ocean_disable_margins":"enable","ocean_add_body_class":"","ocean_shortcode_before_top_bar":"","ocean_shortcode_after_top_bar":"","ocean_shortcode_before_header":"","ocean_shortcode_after_header":"","ocean_has_shortcode":"","ocean_shortcode_after_title":"","ocean_shortcode_before_footer_widgets":"","ocean_shortcode_after_footer_widgets":"","ocean_shortcode_before_footer_bottom":"","ocean_shortcode_after_footer_bottom":"","ocean_display_top_bar":"default","ocean_display_header":"default","ocean_header_style":"","ocean_center_header_left_menu":"","ocean_custom_header_template":"","ocean_custom_logo":0,"ocean_custom_retina_logo":0,"ocean_custom_logo_max_width":0,"ocean_custom_logo_tablet_max_width":0,"ocean_custom_logo_mobile_max_width":0,"ocean_custom_logo_max_height":0,"ocean_custom_logo_tablet_max_height":0,"ocean_custom_logo_mobile_max_height":0,"ocean_header_custom_menu":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_family":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_subset":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_size":0,"ocean_menu_typo_font_size_tablet":0,"ocean_menu_typo_font_size_mobile":0,"ocean_menu_typo_font_size_unit":"px","ocean_menu_typo_font_weight":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_weight_tablet":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_weight_mobile":"","ocean_menu_typo_transform":"","ocean_menu_typo_transform_tablet":"","ocean_menu_typo_transform_mobile":"","ocean_menu_typo_line_height":0,"ocean_menu_typo_line_height_tablet":0,"ocean_menu_typo_line_height_mobile":0,"ocean_menu_typo_line_height_unit":"","ocean_menu_typo_spacing":0,"ocean_menu_typo_spacing_tablet":0,"ocean_menu_typo_spacing_mobile":0,"ocean_menu_typo_spacing_unit":"","ocean_menu_link_color":"","ocean_menu_link_color_hover":"","ocean_menu_link_color_active":"","ocean_menu_link_background":"","ocean_menu_link_hover_background":"","ocean_menu_link_active_background":"","ocean_menu_social_links_bg":"","ocean_menu_social_hover_links_bg":"","ocean_menu_social_links_color":"","ocean_menu_social_hover_links_color":"","ocean_disable_title":"default","ocean_disable_heading":"default","ocean_post_title":"","ocean_post_subheading":"","ocean_post_title_style":"","ocean_post_title_background_color":"","ocean_post_title_background":0,"ocean_post_title_bg_image_position":"","ocean_post_title_bg_image_attachment":"","ocean_post_title_bg_image_repeat":"","ocean_post_title_bg_image_size":"","ocean_post_title_height":0,"ocean_post_title_bg_overlay":0.5,"ocean_post_title_bg_overlay_color":"","ocean_disable_breadcrumbs":"default","ocean_breadcrumbs_color":"","ocean_breadcrumbs_separator_color":"","ocean_breadcrumbs_links_color":"","ocean_breadcrumbs_links_hover_color":"","ocean_display_footer_widgets":"default","ocean_display_footer_bottom":"default","ocean_custom_footer_template":"","_glsr_average":0,"_glsr_ranking":0,"_glsr_reviews":0,"ocean_post_oembed":"","ocean_post_self_hosted_media":"","ocean_post_video_embed":"","ocean_link_format":"","ocean_link_format_target":"self","ocean_quote_format":"","ocean_quote_format_link":"post","ocean_gallery_link_images":"on","ocean_gallery_id":[],"footnotes":""},"categories":[8],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3217","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-english-news","entry","has-media"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.amillex.com\/pt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3217","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.amillex.com\/pt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.amillex.com\/pt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.amillex.com\/pt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.amillex.com\/pt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3217"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.amillex.com\/pt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3217\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":3219,"href":"https:\/\/www.amillex.com\/pt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3217\/revisions\/3219"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.amillex.com\/pt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/3218"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.amillex.com\/pt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3217"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.amillex.com\/pt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3217"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.amillex.com\/pt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3217"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}