{"id":3131,"date":"2025-11-17T18:11:28","date_gmt":"2025-11-17T07:11:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.amillex.com\/?p=3131"},"modified":"2025-12-23T19:32:05","modified_gmt":"2025-12-23T08:32:05","slug":"20251116en","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.amillex.com\/pt\/2025\/11\/17\/20251116en\/","title":{"rendered":"Amillex Daily Market Commentary: U.S. Government Shutdown Ends, Triggering Volatility in Risk Assets; Focus Shifts to Nvidia Earnings and September Nonfarm Payrolls"},"content":{"rendered":"<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">November 17, 2025 \u2014 The U.S. Dollar Index fell 0.28% for the week to 99.26, a two-week low. Spot gold surged to a high of $4,245 before plunging more than $100 in a single session, though it still finished the week up 2.09%. The Nasdaq slipped 0.45%, while the Dow retreated after touching an intraday record high. Bitcoin fell below $95,000 as concerns over oil-market imbalances intensified.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">FX Market: Dollar Loses the 99.5 Handle; Yen Weakens to 155, a Nine-Month Low<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">The U.S. Dollar Index declined 0.28% on the week to 99.26.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">EUR\/USD climbed to 1.1618, and GBP\/USD traded at 1.3165.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">USD\/JPY broke above 155 for the first time since February, fueling expectations of BOJ intervention.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Drivers:<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Fed hawkishness: Several officials, including Cleveland Fed President Mester, stressed \u201csticky inflation,\u201d pushing the probability of a December rate cut below 50%.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Data vacuum: With the shutdown delaying releases of NFP and CPI, markets leaned heavily on Fed commentary to recalibrate expectations.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Precious Metals: Gold Swings Sharply in a V-Shape as Safe-Haven Demand Competes with a Firm Dollar<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Spot gold surged to $4,245 early in the week before tumbling more than 3% to $4,085 on Friday, still closing up 2.09% for the week.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Spot silver rose 4.61% to $50.58, with volatility markedly higher.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Fundamental Takeaways:<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Upside support: The end of the U.S. shutdown coincided with rising geopolitical tensions (U.S. launches \u201cOperation Southern Spear\u201d), sustaining safe-haven demand.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Downside pressure: Hawkish Fed signals lifted real yields, triggering long-position unwinds. UBS noted global gold demand is at its highest since 2011, but short-term technicals remain overbought.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Energy Market: Oil Pressured by Worsening Supply-Demand Balance; OPEC Warns of Oversupply<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">WTI crude fell 1.8% for the week to $58.20, while Brent settled at $62.10.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Key Development:<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">OPEC\u2019s monthly report revised its Q3 outlook from a \u201cshortage\u201d to \u201coversupply,\u201d while the IEA raised its 2024 surplus forecast for the sixth straight month.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Supply\u2013Demand Logic:<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Supply pressure: U.S. crude inventories rose by 2.4 million barrels (above expectations), and Russian output hit a new high.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Limited geopolitical premium: Venezuela\u2019s political turmoil has not disrupted supply, while demand concerns persist (China\u2019s diesel exports up 25% in October).<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Crypto: Bitcoin Falls Below $95,000 as Leverage Flush Accelerates<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Bitcoin dropped 6.3% on the week to $94,800. Ethereum fell below $3,100.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Market Sentiment:<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">CoinGlass data shows weekly liquidations exceeded $12 billion, with leveraged long positions hit hardest. ETF outflows from institutional funds expanded.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Policy Impact:<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">The U.S. SEC intensified scrutiny of stablecoins, while the PBOC reiterated its stance against crypto speculation.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">U.S. Equities &amp; Bonds: Nasdaq Drags Tech Lower; Treasury Yields Edge Higher<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">The Dow gained 0.34% for the week but retreated from its record peak.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">The S&amp;P 500 added 0.08%, while the Nasdaq slipped 0.45%.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Sector Rotation:<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Energy and financial stocks outperformed, while tech names (Nvidia, Meta) came under pressure from valuation concerns.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Bonds:<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">The 10-year Treasury yield rose 3 bps to 4.15% amid renewed expectations of balance-sheet runoff.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Key Economic Events to Watch This Week<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">U.S. September Nonfarm Payrolls<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Risk note: Release delayed by the shutdown; unemployment rate may be missing, adding volatility.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Nvidia Earnings<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Consensus:<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u2013 Revenue: $54.8 billion (up 56% YoY)<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u2013 AI chip order visibility remains the key market focus<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">BOJ meeting minutes; ECB President Lagarde speech<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Japan MOF auction of \u00a5800 billion in 20-year JGBs<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Market to assess Japan\u2019s capacity for further fiscal expansion.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Eurozone CPI<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Microsoft Ignite Conference<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Dubai Airshow<\/h2>\n<\/blockquote>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>November 17, 2025 \u2014 The U.S. Dollar Index fell 0.28% for the week to 99.26, a two-week low. Spot gold surged to a high of $4,245 before plunging more than $100 in a single session, though it still finished the week up 2.09%. The Nasdaq slipped 0.45%, while the Dow retreated after touching an intraday [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":3133,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"ocean_post_layout":"","ocean_both_sidebars_style":"","ocean_both_sidebars_content_width":0,"ocean_both_sidebars_sidebars_width":0,"ocean_sidebar":"","ocean_second_sidebar":"","ocean_disable_margins":"enable","ocean_add_body_class":"","ocean_shortcode_before_top_bar":"","ocean_shortcode_after_top_bar":"","ocean_shortcode_before_header":"","ocean_shortcode_after_header":"","ocean_has_shortcode":"","ocean_shortcode_after_title":"","ocean_shortcode_before_footer_widgets":"","ocean_shortcode_after_footer_widgets":"","ocean_shortcode_before_footer_bottom":"","ocean_shortcode_after_footer_bottom":"","ocean_display_top_bar":"default","ocean_display_header":"default","ocean_header_style":"","ocean_center_header_left_menu":"","ocean_custom_header_template":"","ocean_custom_logo":0,"ocean_custom_retina_logo":0,"ocean_custom_logo_max_width":0,"ocean_custom_logo_tablet_max_width":0,"ocean_custom_logo_mobile_max_width":0,"ocean_custom_logo_max_height":0,"ocean_custom_logo_tablet_max_height":0,"ocean_custom_logo_mobile_max_height":0,"ocean_header_custom_menu":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_family":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_subset":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_size":0,"ocean_menu_typo_font_size_tablet":0,"ocean_menu_typo_font_size_mobile":0,"ocean_menu_typo_font_size_unit":"px","ocean_menu_typo_font_weight":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_weight_tablet":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_weight_mobile":"","ocean_menu_typo_transform":"","ocean_menu_typo_transform_tablet":"","ocean_menu_typo_transform_mobile":"","ocean_menu_typo_line_height":0,"ocean_menu_typo_line_height_tablet":0,"ocean_menu_typo_line_height_mobile":0,"ocean_menu_typo_line_height_unit":"","ocean_menu_typo_spacing":0,"ocean_menu_typo_spacing_tablet":0,"ocean_menu_typo_spacing_mobile":0,"ocean_menu_typo_spacing_unit":"","ocean_menu_link_color":"","ocean_menu_link_color_hover":"","ocean_menu_link_color_active":"","ocean_menu_link_background":"","ocean_menu_link_hover_background":"","ocean_menu_link_active_background":"","ocean_menu_social_links_bg":"","ocean_menu_social_hover_links_bg":"","ocean_menu_social_links_color":"","ocean_menu_social_hover_links_color":"","ocean_disable_title":"default","ocean_disable_heading":"default","ocean_post_title":"","ocean_post_subheading":"","ocean_post_title_style":"","ocean_post_title_background_color":"","ocean_post_title_background":0,"ocean_post_title_bg_image_position":"","ocean_post_title_bg_image_attachment":"","ocean_post_title_bg_image_repeat":"","ocean_post_title_bg_image_size":"","ocean_post_title_height":0,"ocean_post_title_bg_overlay":0.5,"ocean_post_title_bg_overlay_color":"","ocean_disable_breadcrumbs":"default","ocean_breadcrumbs_color":"","ocean_breadcrumbs_separator_color":"","ocean_breadcrumbs_links_color":"","ocean_breadcrumbs_links_hover_color":"","ocean_display_footer_widgets":"default","ocean_display_footer_bottom":"default","ocean_custom_footer_template":"","_glsr_average":0,"_glsr_ranking":0,"_glsr_reviews":0,"ocean_post_oembed":"","ocean_post_self_hosted_media":"","ocean_post_video_embed":"","ocean_link_format":"","ocean_link_format_target":"self","ocean_quote_format":"","ocean_quote_format_link":"post","ocean_gallery_link_images":"on","ocean_gallery_id":[],"footnotes":""},"categories":[8],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3131","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-english-news","entry","has-media"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.amillex.com\/pt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3131","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.amillex.com\/pt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.amillex.com\/pt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.amillex.com\/pt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.amillex.com\/pt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3131"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.amillex.com\/pt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3131\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":3134,"href":"https:\/\/www.amillex.com\/pt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3131\/revisions\/3134"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.amillex.com\/pt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/3133"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.amillex.com\/pt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3131"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.amillex.com\/pt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3131"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.amillex.com\/pt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3131"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}