{"id":2955,"date":"2025-10-20T15:37:11","date_gmt":"2025-10-20T04:37:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.amillex.com\/?p=2955"},"modified":"2025-12-23T19:29:14","modified_gmt":"2025-12-23T08:29:14","slug":"news20251019en","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.amillex.com\/pt\/2025\/10\/20\/news20251019en\/","title":{"rendered":"Amillex Daily Market Review: U.S. Earnings Season Peaks\u2014Focus on AI Capital Spending and \u201cRisk-Off\u201d Dominance"},"content":{"rendered":"<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">October 20, 2025 \u2014 Last week, global markets showed a mixed pattern amid the tug-of-war between policy uncertainty and corporate earnings resilience. Spot gold surged past $4,380\/oz, marking its ninth straight weekly gain; all three major U.S. stock indexes closed higher, with the Nasdaq up 2.14% for the week. The U.S. dollar index fell to 98.53, 10-year Treasury yields dropped below 4%, and crude oil prices fell for a third consecutive week as supply-demand imbalances worsened. The dominant market themes remained the interplay between Fed rate-cut expectations and rising geopolitical tensions.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">U.S. Equities: Earnings Season Opens Steadily, Bank Volatility Spikes<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Index performance:<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">S&amp;P 500 +1.7% (weekly)<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Dow Jones +1.56%<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Nasdaq +2.14%, led by tech names such as Broadcom and Tesla.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Risk events: On October 16, regional U.S. banks lost over $100 billion in market cap in a single day, as Zion Bank plunged 15% following a loan fraud scandal.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Fundamental drivers:<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Earnings resilience: JPMorgan and Bank of America both beat Q3 earnings expectations; while net interest margins remained under pressure, overall credit quality stayed sound.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Policy support: Fed Chair Powell hinted that \u201cbalance sheet reduction may soon end.\u201d Markets are now fully pricing in a 25 bps rate cut in October.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Precious Metals: Gold Hits Record High, Silver Sees Roller-Coaster Swings<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Market recap:<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Spot gold hit a new record at $4,380\/oz, up nearly 6% on the week\u2014its ninth consecutive weekly gain.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Silver briefly topped $54, then plunged 6% on Friday to $51.73, still up 3.5% for the week.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Key drivers:<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Surging safe-haven demand: The U.S. government shutdown entered its third week (the second-longest in history), and the Middle East ceasefire remains fragile.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Central bank buying: Global central banks have purchased over 800 tons of gold this year; Standard Chartered raised its 2026 gold price forecast to $4,488\/oz.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Technical extremes: Gold\u2019s RSI remains deeply overbought; the Shanghai Gold Exchange issued a \u201cposition control\u201d advisory.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">FX and Bonds: Dollar Weakens, Yields Break Lower<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Dollar Index: Fell 0.7% to 98.53, its biggest weekly drop since July.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Treasury market: 10-year yields broke below 4%; Fed\u2019s SRF (Standing Repo Facility) usage surged to $6.75 billion, the highest non-quarter-end level since COVID.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Macro logic: Trump\u2019s threat to impose a 100% tariff on Chinese goods dampened risk appetite, prompting flows into alternative safe-haven currencies like the Swiss franc.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Commodities: Oil Slumps to $58, IEA Warns of Looming Oversupply<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">WTI crude: Down 4.2% for the week to $58\/barrel; Brent fell below $62.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">IEA warned of \u201csevere global oversupply by 2026.\u201d<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">EIA reported consecutive inventory builds; OPEC+ confirmed its November output increase plan.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Structural floor: $57.50 marks the marginal cost line for shale oil\u2014a break below could trigger supply cuts.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Crypto: Paxos Glitch Triggers Brief Turmoil<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Bitcoin: Down 2.3% to $112,000.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Ethereum: Down 4.5%.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Incident: Paxos accidentally minted 300 trillion PYUSD tokens (worth about $300 trillion)\u2014later burned within 22 minutes. DeFi platform Aave froze related markets.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Sentiment: While rate-cut expectations support liquidity, regulatory uncertainty continues to curb speculative appetite.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Earnings Season Peaks This Week<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Tech: Tesla, Intel, and AT&amp;T (Oct 22\u201324) \u2014 focus on AI capital expenditure guidance.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">China ADRs: China Telecom and China Unicom (Oct 23) \u2014 digital economy transformation to be a highlight.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Market impact: FactSet expects S&amp;P 500 Q3 earnings to rise 8.4% YoY; any upside surprise could reinforce risk appetite.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Key Events to Watch This Week<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">U.S. government shutdown: If unresolved, the Sept CPI report (Oct 24) may be the only critical data point before the October FOMC meeting.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Japan PM vote (Oct 21): After the LDP\u2013Komeito split, Sanae Takaichi\u2019s election outcome will guide yen sentiment.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">EU summit: Discussion on tariffs for Chinese EVs\u2014potential volatility for clean-energy stocks.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">U.S. Sept CPI (Oct 24, 20:30): Expected +3.1% YoY (vs. prior 2.9%); core CPI also at 3.1%.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Global PMI Flash (Oct 24): Weak readings from Europe\/US could heighten recession fears.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Fed quiet period: Ahead of the Oct meeting, no public comments allowed; markets will rely on inflation data to recalibrate expectations.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">ECB\u2019s Lagarde speech (Oct 22): Watch for phrasing on \u201cthe last mile\u201d of inflation control.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Central bank meetings: Turkey, South Korea, Russia \u2014 focus on whether emerging-market rate cuts continue.<\/h2>\n<\/blockquote>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>October 20, 2025 \u2014 Last week, global markets showed a mixed pattern amid the tug-of-war between policy uncertainty and corporate earnings resilience. Spot gold surged past $4,380\/oz, marking its ninth straight weekly gain; all three major U.S. stock indexes closed higher, with the Nasdaq up 2.14% for the week. The U.S. dollar index fell to [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":2957,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"ocean_post_layout":"","ocean_both_sidebars_style":"","ocean_both_sidebars_content_width":0,"ocean_both_sidebars_sidebars_width":0,"ocean_sidebar":"","ocean_second_sidebar":"","ocean_disable_margins":"enable","ocean_add_body_class":"","ocean_shortcode_before_top_bar":"","ocean_shortcode_after_top_bar":"","ocean_shortcode_before_header":"","ocean_shortcode_after_header":"","ocean_has_shortcode":"","ocean_shortcode_after_title":"","ocean_shortcode_before_footer_widgets":"","ocean_shortcode_after_footer_widgets":"","ocean_shortcode_before_footer_bottom":"","ocean_shortcode_after_footer_bottom":"","ocean_display_top_bar":"default","ocean_display_header":"default","ocean_header_style":"","ocean_center_header_left_menu":"","ocean_custom_header_template":"","ocean_custom_logo":0,"ocean_custom_retina_logo":0,"ocean_custom_logo_max_width":0,"ocean_custom_logo_tablet_max_width":0,"ocean_custom_logo_mobile_max_width":0,"ocean_custom_logo_max_height":0,"ocean_custom_logo_tablet_max_height":0,"ocean_custom_logo_mobile_max_height":0,"ocean_header_custom_menu":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_family":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_subset":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_size":0,"ocean_menu_typo_font_size_tablet":0,"ocean_menu_typo_font_size_mobile":0,"ocean_menu_typo_font_size_unit":"px","ocean_menu_typo_font_weight":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_weight_tablet":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_weight_mobile":"","ocean_menu_typo_transform":"","ocean_menu_typo_transform_tablet":"","ocean_menu_typo_transform_mobile":"","ocean_menu_typo_line_height":0,"ocean_menu_typo_line_height_tablet":0,"ocean_menu_typo_line_height_mobile":0,"ocean_menu_typo_line_height_unit":"","ocean_menu_typo_spacing":0,"ocean_menu_typo_spacing_tablet":0,"ocean_menu_typo_spacing_mobile":0,"ocean_menu_typo_spacing_unit":"","ocean_menu_link_color":"","ocean_menu_link_color_hover":"","ocean_menu_link_color_active":"","ocean_menu_link_background":"","ocean_menu_link_hover_background":"","ocean_menu_link_active_background":"","ocean_menu_social_links_bg":"","ocean_menu_social_hover_links_bg":"","ocean_menu_social_links_color":"","ocean_menu_social_hover_links_color":"","ocean_disable_title":"default","ocean_disable_heading":"default","ocean_post_title":"","ocean_post_subheading":"","ocean_post_title_style":"","ocean_post_title_background_color":"","ocean_post_title_background":0,"ocean_post_title_bg_image_position":"","ocean_post_title_bg_image_attachment":"","ocean_post_title_bg_image_repeat":"","ocean_post_title_bg_image_size":"","ocean_post_title_height":0,"ocean_post_title_bg_overlay":0.5,"ocean_post_title_bg_overlay_color":"","ocean_disable_breadcrumbs":"default","ocean_breadcrumbs_color":"","ocean_breadcrumbs_separator_color":"","ocean_breadcrumbs_links_color":"","ocean_breadcrumbs_links_hover_color":"","ocean_display_footer_widgets":"default","ocean_display_footer_bottom":"default","ocean_custom_footer_template":"","_glsr_average":0,"_glsr_ranking":0,"_glsr_reviews":0,"ocean_post_oembed":"","ocean_post_self_hosted_media":"","ocean_post_video_embed":"","ocean_link_format":"","ocean_link_format_target":"self","ocean_quote_format":"","ocean_quote_format_link":"post","ocean_gallery_link_images":"on","ocean_gallery_id":[],"footnotes":""},"categories":[8],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2955","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-english-news","entry","has-media"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.amillex.com\/pt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2955","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.amillex.com\/pt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.amillex.com\/pt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.amillex.com\/pt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.amillex.com\/pt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2955"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.amillex.com\/pt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2955\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2958,"href":"https:\/\/www.amillex.com\/pt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2955\/revisions\/2958"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.amillex.com\/pt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2957"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.amillex.com\/pt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2955"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.amillex.com\/pt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2955"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.amillex.com\/pt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2955"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}