Amillex Daily Market Commentary | Services PMI Beats Expectations, Dollar Front-Runs NFP

January 8, 2026, global financial markets showed strong resilience amid the combined impact of macroeconomic data and geopolitical developments. In FX markets, optimism ahead of the upcoming Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report pushed the U.S. Dollar Index higher before the data release. U.S. December Services PMI came in at 54.4, well above the 52.2 forecast, highlighting solid economic momentum. Although JOLTS job openings fell to 7.15 million, indicating a mild cooling in the labor market, this trend reinforced confidence in a “soft landing” or even a potential re-acceleration. Risk appetite remained firm despite tighter policy expectations, with the S&P 500 climbing to a record 6,944. Meanwhile, spot gold surged above $4,500/oz, supported by geopolitical risk premiums and inflation-hedging demand, creating a rare scenario where the U.S. dollar, equities, and gold advanced simultaneously.

Key Event to Watch

On January 6, 2026, U.S. President Donald Trump announced that an agreement had been reached with Venezuela’s interim government to transfer 30–50 million barrels of previously sanctioned crude oil inventories to the United States for sale at market prices (total value estimated at $1.8–3.0 billion), with proceeds to be personally overseen by Trump. This move signals Venezuela’s strategic pivot toward closer cooperation with the U.S. Meanwhile, the Trump administration is reportedly pressuring Caracas to expel officials from China, Russia, Cuba, and Iran, aiming to consolidate control over energy assets and significantly curb these countries’ regional influence.

다중 자산 시장 성과 및 기본적 분석

1. 미국 주식 시장

Index Performance

Dow Jones Industrial Average: Extended gains, posting a modest rise led by industrials and defense-related stocks.
S&P 500 Index: Closed at 6,944, marking a new all-time high. Despite elevated interest rates, optimistic expectations for 2026 corporate earnings offset the impact of higher discount rates.
NASDAQ Composite: Gained 0.22%, latest at 25,800. Mega-cap tech stocks strengthened collectively amid accelerating AI commercialization, pushing the index back into historical extreme zones.

Stock Spotlight

NVIDIA (NVDA): Reports indicate that China has instructed domestic tech firms to halt purchases of NVIDIA’s H200 chips, with a policy bias toward mandatory adoption of domestically produced alternatives. As a result, NVIDIA shares have risen only 1.4% over the past month. Nevertheless, against the backdrop of an ongoing global AI boom, the market remains optimistic about its 2026 growth prospects, with some bullish projections pointing to upside potential exceeding 50%.

2. 외환 시장

U.S. Dollar Index (DXY): Supported by positive labor market expectations, the dollar remained firm, consolidating around 98.6, as international capital flows back into USD assets driven by yield attractiveness.
미국 달러/엔: Trading near 156.5. Japan’s cabinet recently approved a record-high annual budget of ¥122.3 trillion, raising market concerns over fiscal sustainability.
유로/미국 달러: Pulled back amid broad USD strength, currently searching for support in the 1.16–1.18 range.

3. Precious Metals & Commodities

귀금속

Spot Gold (XAUUSD): Broke decisively above $4,500/oz. Despite a stronger dollar, gold continues to demonstrate strong downside resilience amid global monetary credibility reshaping and sustained geopolitical risk premiums.
Spot Silver (XAGUSD): Trading around $78/oz, tracking gold’s rally. Improved industrial demand expectations have given silver greater price elasticity than gold in early 2026.

상품

WTI Crude Oil: A major variable has emerged. President Trump stated: “Venezuela will transfer 30 to 50 million barrels of high-quality sanctioned crude oil to the United States.” This announcement triggered expectations of a sudden supply increase, leading oil prices to experience sharp volatility around $57/barrel.

Key Drivers: The tug-of-war between geopolitically driven supply expansion expectations and seasonal demand recovery at the start of the year remains the core narrative in energy markets.

4. Crypto Assets & Macro Dynamics

Bitcoin (BTC): During early Asian trading, BTC consolidated narrowly above the $92,000 level, retreating slightly by 0.9%. Amid a macro data lull and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty, Bitcoin continues to display solid downside resilience, with short-term price action leaning toward range-bound consolidation.
XRP (XRP/USD): Following a strong prior rally, XRP saw a notable pullback, falling 5.4% on the day to around $2.27. Influenced by broad profit-taking sentiment across Asian markets, XRP faces elevated near-term profit-taking pressure.

5. 오늘의 초점