{"id":3310,"date":"2025-12-04T19:36:09","date_gmt":"2025-12-04T08:36:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.amillex.com\/?p=3310"},"modified":"2025-12-23T19:32:39","modified_gmt":"2025-12-23T08:32:39","slug":"2025123en","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.amillex.com\/it\/2025\/12\/04\/2025123en\/","title":{"rendered":"Amillex Daily Market Commentary: U.S. \u201cMini Nonfarm\u201d Miss Triggers Rate-Cut Trades, Dollar Slides, Gold Breaks Above $4,220, LME Copper Hits Record High Above $11,375"},"content":{"rendered":"<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">December 4, 2025 \u2014 U.S. equities opened broadly lower on Wednesday, with the S&amp;P 500 down 0.21%. The U.S. dollar index plunged to 98.90, a four-month low. Spot gold surged above $4,220\/oz, while LME copper spiked 2% to $11,375.6\/ton, a fresh all-time high. Bitcoin staged a V-shaped rebound to $93,300.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Key Market Moves &amp; Fundamental Analysis<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">1. U.S. Equities: Weak Economic Data Suppresses Risk Appetite, Tech Leads Declines<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">S&amp;P 500 \u22120.21% to 6,815.29<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Dow Jones \u22120.22% to 47,371.62<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Nasdaq \u22120.42% to 23,315.58<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Caratteristiche principali del titolo:<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Microsoft \u22122.9% on weaker-than-expected AI software demand<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Semiconductor stocks broadly under pressure<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Core drivers:<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Labor market deterioration:<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">U.S. November ADP employment fell by 32,000 jobs (vs. +10,000 expected), marking the fourth consecutive monthly decline and the worst reading since early 2023.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Rising policy easing expectations:<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">The probability of a Fed rate cut in December surged to 90%, with Trump reportedly favoring dovish candidate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed Chair.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Institutional view:<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Brown Brothers Harriman noted that weakening labor demand and slowing consumption support further Fed easing.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">2. FX Market: Dollar Falls to a Four-Month Low, Broad Rally in Non-U.S. Currencies<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Dollar Index \u22120.3% to 98.90<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">EUR\/USD up to 1.1650, GBP\/USD breaks above 1.3250<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">USD\/JPY \u22120.2% to 155.54<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Indian rupee weakens to 90.28, a record low<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Fundamental interpretation:<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Rate-cut logic reinforced:<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">The weak ADP data intensified economic slowdown concerns. Falling Treasury yields (10-year down to 4.05%) weighed on the dollar.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">EM divergence:<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Offshore RMB strengthened to 7.0585, a 14-month high, while capital outflows and trade deficits dragged the Indian rupee lower.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">3. Precious Metals: Safe-Haven Demand Lifts Gold &amp; Silver, Supply Risks Escalate<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Spot gold +0.4% to $4,223.13\/oz<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Spot silver +0.5% to $58.76\/oz<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Key drivers:<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Easing expectations:<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Rising Fed rate-cut odds reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets, with falling real yields supporting gold.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Structural shortages:<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Global silver inventories have dropped to a ten-year low, while booming solar demand intensifies supply anxiety.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Technical outlook:<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Gold has decisively broken the key $4,200 resistance, with a short-term target toward $4,250.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">4. Commodities: Copper Hits Record High, Oil\u2019s Geopolitical Premium Retreats<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Copper Market<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">LME copper +2% to $11,375.6\/ton<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Shanghai copper futures break above RMB 90,000\/ton<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Drivers:<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Supply disruptions:<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Frequent labor strikes in Chile and Peru, with LME registered inventories down to 180,000 tons, a cyclical low.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Tariff avoidance:<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Traders are rushing physical copper shipments to the U.S. ahead of potential import tariffs, driving sharp regional spot premiums.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Crude Oil<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">WTI crude +0.4% to $58.9\/barrel<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Bull\u2013bear tug-of-war:<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Ukraine\u2013Russia ceasefire talks cap geopolitical premiums,<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">API crude inventories rose by 2.48 million barrels, limiting upside.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">5. Crypto Market: Bitcoin Stages V-Shaped Rebound, Liquidation Pressure Eases<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Bitcoin rebounded from $91,500 intraday low to $93,300<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Ethereum followed higher<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Sentiment di mercato:<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Technical rebound:<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Short covering after oversold conditions; derivatives open interest rose 8% day-on-day.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Regulatory overhang:<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">The U.S. SEC continues to tighten scrutiny on stablecoins, while the PBoC reiterated crackdowns on illegal crypto speculation.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">On-chain data:<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Whale wallets added 12,000 BTC over the past week, signaling long-term accumulation.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Today\u2019s focus<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Switzerland November seasonally adjusted unemployment rate<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Eurozone October retail sales (MoM)<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">U.S. November Challenger job-cut announcements<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">U.S. weekly initial jobless claims (Nov. 29)<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">U.S. November Global Supply Chain Pressure Index<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">U.S. weekly EIA natural gas inventories (Nov. 28)<\/h2>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>December 4, 2025 \u2014 U.S. equities opened broadly lower on Wednesday, with the S&amp;P 500 down 0.21%. The U.S. dollar index plunged to 98.90, a four-month low. Spot gold surged above $4,220\/oz, while LME copper spiked 2% to $11,375.6\/ton, a fresh all-time high. Bitcoin staged a V-shaped rebound to $93,300. Key Market Moves &amp; Fundamental [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":3311,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"ocean_post_layout":"","ocean_both_sidebars_style":"","ocean_both_sidebars_content_width":0,"ocean_both_sidebars_sidebars_width":0,"ocean_sidebar":"","ocean_second_sidebar":"","ocean_disable_margins":"enable","ocean_add_body_class":"","ocean_shortcode_before_top_bar":"","ocean_shortcode_after_top_bar":"","ocean_shortcode_before_header":"","ocean_shortcode_after_header":"","ocean_has_shortcode":"","ocean_shortcode_after_title":"","ocean_shortcode_before_footer_widgets":"","ocean_shortcode_after_footer_widgets":"","ocean_shortcode_before_footer_bottom":"","ocean_shortcode_after_footer_bottom":"","ocean_display_top_bar":"default","ocean_display_header":"default","ocean_header_style":"","ocean_center_header_left_menu":"","ocean_custom_header_template":"","ocean_custom_logo":0,"ocean_custom_retina_logo":0,"ocean_custom_logo_max_width":0,"ocean_custom_logo_tablet_max_width":0,"ocean_custom_logo_mobile_max_width":0,"ocean_custom_logo_max_height":0,"ocean_custom_logo_tablet_max_height":0,"ocean_custom_logo_mobile_max_height":0,"ocean_header_custom_menu":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_family":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_subset":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_size":0,"ocean_menu_typo_font_size_tablet":0,"ocean_menu_typo_font_size_mobile":0,"ocean_menu_typo_font_size_unit":"px","ocean_menu_typo_font_weight":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_weight_tablet":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_weight_mobile":"","ocean_menu_typo_transform":"","ocean_menu_typo_transform_tablet":"","ocean_menu_typo_transform_mobile":"","ocean_menu_typo_line_height":0,"ocean_menu_typo_line_height_tablet":0,"ocean_menu_typo_line_height_mobile":0,"ocean_menu_typo_line_height_unit":"","ocean_menu_typo_spacing":0,"ocean_menu_typo_spacing_tablet":0,"ocean_menu_typo_spacing_mobile":0,"ocean_menu_typo_spacing_unit":"","ocean_menu_link_color":"","ocean_menu_link_color_hover":"","ocean_menu_link_color_active":"","ocean_menu_link_background":"","ocean_menu_link_hover_background":"","ocean_menu_link_active_background":"","ocean_menu_social_links_bg":"","ocean_menu_social_hover_links_bg":"","ocean_menu_social_links_color":"","ocean_menu_social_hover_links_color":"","ocean_disable_title":"default","ocean_disable_heading":"default","ocean_post_title":"","ocean_post_subheading":"","ocean_post_title_style":"","ocean_post_title_background_color":"","ocean_post_title_background":0,"ocean_post_title_bg_image_position":"","ocean_post_title_bg_image_attachment":"","ocean_post_title_bg_image_repeat":"","ocean_post_title_bg_image_size":"","ocean_post_title_height":0,"ocean_post_title_bg_overlay":0.5,"ocean_post_title_bg_overlay_color":"","ocean_disable_breadcrumbs":"default","ocean_breadcrumbs_color":"","ocean_breadcrumbs_separator_color":"","ocean_breadcrumbs_links_color":"","ocean_breadcrumbs_links_hover_color":"","ocean_display_footer_widgets":"default","ocean_display_footer_bottom":"default","ocean_custom_footer_template":"","_glsr_average":0,"_glsr_ranking":0,"_glsr_reviews":0,"ocean_post_oembed":"","ocean_post_self_hosted_media":"","ocean_post_video_embed":"","ocean_link_format":"","ocean_link_format_target":"self","ocean_quote_format":"","ocean_quote_format_link":"post","ocean_gallery_link_images":"on","ocean_gallery_id":[],"footnotes":""},"categories":[8],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3310","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-english-news","entry","has-media"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.amillex.com\/it\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3310","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.amillex.com\/it\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.amillex.com\/it\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.amillex.com\/it\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.amillex.com\/it\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3310"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.amillex.com\/it\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3310\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":3312,"href":"https:\/\/www.amillex.com\/it\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3310\/revisions\/3312"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.amillex.com\/it\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/3311"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.amillex.com\/it\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3310"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.amillex.com\/it\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3310"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.amillex.com\/it\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3310"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}