{"id":3211,"date":"2025-11-24T14:18:51","date_gmt":"2025-11-24T03:18:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.amillex.com\/?p=3211"},"modified":"2025-12-23T19:27:28","modified_gmt":"2025-12-23T08:27:28","slug":"20251123en","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.amillex.com\/it\/2025\/11\/24\/20251123en\/","title":{"rendered":"Amillex Daily Market Commentary: Fed Rate-Cut Expectations Collapse and Trigger Cross-Asset Turbulence; Nvidia\u2019s Strong Earnings Fail to Prevent Nasdaq\u2019s 2.7% Weekly Drop; Dollar Breaks Above 100, Gold Under Pressure, and Japanese Bond Yields Surge to a 17-Year High"},"content":{"rendered":"<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">November 24, 2025 \u2014 Last week, the U.S. dollar index broke above the 100 mark to a six-month high; spot gold fell below $4,060, down 0.47% on the week; the Nasdaq tumbled 2.74%; Bitcoin plunged below $83,000, marking an 18% weekly drop; Japan\u2019s 10-year bond yield spiked to 1.825%, the highest since 2008.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">I. Weekly Performance Across Asset Classes &amp; Key Fundamentals<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">1. FX Market: Dollar Regains Dominance, Yen Slides to 155 Near Intervention Line<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Dollar Index: +0.91% for the week to 100.17, rising for a fourth straight week and hitting a six-month high.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Yen: Weakened to 155.37 against the dollar (lowest since February), and fell past 180 against the euro to a record low.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Drivers:<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Fed Hawkish Shift: Governors Harker and Goolsbee opposed a December rate cut; futures pricing now places the odds below 50%.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Japan Fiscal Panic: The government\u2019s proposed \u00a521.3 trillion stimulus package triggered a sharp JGB sell-off.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">2. Precious Metals: Gold\u2019s Safe-Haven Appeal Weakens amid Strong Dollar &amp; Rising Real Rates<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Spot gold fell 0.47% to $4,065, with intraday swings exceeding $100.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Pressures: Stronger USD + diminished rate-cut expectations.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Potential Support: Escalation of Russia\u2013Ukraine tensions (Ukraine rejected the U.S. 28-point peace plan) and Middle East unrest.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">3. Equities: Nasdaq Leads Global Declines; Nvidia\u2019s Strong Earnings Fail to Stop Tech Sell-Off<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">U.S. indices: Dow \u22121.91%, S&amp;P 500 \u22121.95%, Nasdaq \u22122.74%.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Sector trends: Energy stocks showed relative resilience; semiconductors (Nvidia \u22123.4% weekly) and AI names led declines.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Core contradictions:<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Nvidia\u2019s Q3 revenue of $57B beat expectations, but markets worry about AI demand sustainability heading into 2026.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Rotation theme: Morgan Stanley noted cyclicals began to replace growth stocks, with defensive sectors gaining favor.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">4. Commodities: Oil Market Weakens, Agriculture Diverges<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">WTI crude: \u22123.2% on the week to $58.2; Brent also declined.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Bearish factors:<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Oversupply: Falling OPEC+ compliance and a 2.4M-barrel U.S. inventory build (above expectations).<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Weak demand: Global manufacturing PMIs remain subdued.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Agriculture: Soymeal fell on South American supply pressure; corn edged higher on weather speculation.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">5. Crypto: Bitcoin Plunges 18% Weekly, Leverage Flush-Out Returns<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Bitcoin slid 18% to $83,000; Ethereum also declined.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">On-chain: Weekly liquidations exceeded $12B, with ETFs seeing accelerating outflows.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Regulatory headwinds: U.S. SEC intensified stablecoin scrutiny; PBoC reiterated crackdown on crypto speculation.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">6. Bonds: Japan Yields Hit 17-Year High; U.S. Curve Steepens<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Japan 10-year JGB: Surged to 1.825%, the highest since June 2008.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">U.S. Treasuries: 2-year yield rose to 4.13%, with conflicting nonfarm data driving volatility.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Europe: German 10-year yields moved higher as ECB\u2019s wait-and-see stance limited a rebound.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">II. In-Depth Analysis of Key Events &amp; Policy Backdrop<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">1. Fed Internal Divisions Reach Boiling Point<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Hawks: Cleveland Fed\u2019s Harker warned of \u201csticky inflation\u201d; Chicago Fed\u2019s Goolsbee opposed a December rate cut.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Doves: New York Fed\u2019s Williams said \u201cnear-term rate cuts are possible,\u201d while Governor Milan supported faster easing.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Data blackout risk: With October CPI and NFP delayed, the December FOMC meeting will lack key inputs.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">2. Geopolitical Risks Intensify Simultaneously<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Russia\u2013Ukraine: The U.S. 28-point peace proposal required Ukraine to cede territory and demilitarize; Zelensky rejected it.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Middle East: Israeli airstrikes in Gaza left over 100 casualties; Hamas accused Israel of violating the ceasefire.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Latin America: Trump threatened military action against Venezuela, triggering a sharp sell-off in the Mexican peso.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">3. Structural Stress in Asian Markets<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Japan\u2019s \u201ctriple shock\u201d in stocks, bonds, and FX: Fiscal stimulus expectations fueled JGB selling, yen carry trade unwinding intensified pressure.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">China policy support: Reports indicate more than 60 market-supporting announcements in Shanghai, strengthening policy-put expectations.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">III. Key Events to Watch in the Coming Week<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">U.S. PCE inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Fed Beige Book<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Watch references to \u201clabor market cooling\u201d and \u201cslowing wage growth,\u201d which may revive rate-cut expectations<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">China November PMI<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Fed speakers:<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">New York Fed\u2019s Williams will be the key voice shaping expectations for a December rate cut<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Central banks:<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">RBNZ expected to cut rates by 25 bps; Bank of Korea likely to hold<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Trump\u2019s AI Policy:<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Details of the \u201cGenesis Plan\u201d may lift domestic AI-infrastructure themes<\/h2>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>November 24, 2025 \u2014 Last week, the U.S. dollar index broke above the 100 mark to a six-month high; spot gold fell below $4,060, down 0.47% on the week; the Nasdaq tumbled 2.74%; Bitcoin plunged below $83,000, marking an 18% weekly drop; Japan\u2019s 10-year bond yield spiked to 1.825%, the highest since 2008. I. Weekly [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":3212,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"ocean_post_layout":"","ocean_both_sidebars_style":"","ocean_both_sidebars_content_width":0,"ocean_both_sidebars_sidebars_width":0,"ocean_sidebar":"","ocean_second_sidebar":"","ocean_disable_margins":"enable","ocean_add_body_class":"","ocean_shortcode_before_top_bar":"","ocean_shortcode_after_top_bar":"","ocean_shortcode_before_header":"","ocean_shortcode_after_header":"","ocean_has_shortcode":"","ocean_shortcode_after_title":"","ocean_shortcode_before_footer_widgets":"","ocean_shortcode_after_footer_widgets":"","ocean_shortcode_before_footer_bottom":"","ocean_shortcode_after_footer_bottom":"","ocean_display_top_bar":"default","ocean_display_header":"default","ocean_header_style":"","ocean_center_header_left_menu":"","ocean_custom_header_template":"","ocean_custom_logo":0,"ocean_custom_retina_logo":0,"ocean_custom_logo_max_width":0,"ocean_custom_logo_tablet_max_width":0,"ocean_custom_logo_mobile_max_width":0,"ocean_custom_logo_max_height":0,"ocean_custom_logo_tablet_max_height":0,"ocean_custom_logo_mobile_max_height":0,"ocean_header_custom_menu":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_family":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_subset":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_size":0,"ocean_menu_typo_font_size_tablet":0,"ocean_menu_typo_font_size_mobile":0,"ocean_menu_typo_font_size_unit":"px","ocean_menu_typo_font_weight":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_weight_tablet":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_weight_mobile":"","ocean_menu_typo_transform":"","ocean_menu_typo_transform_tablet":"","ocean_menu_typo_transform_mobile":"","ocean_menu_typo_line_height":0,"ocean_menu_typo_line_height_tablet":0,"ocean_menu_typo_line_height_mobile":0,"ocean_menu_typo_line_height_unit":"","ocean_menu_typo_spacing":0,"ocean_menu_typo_spacing_tablet":0,"ocean_menu_typo_spacing_mobile":0,"ocean_menu_typo_spacing_unit":"","ocean_menu_link_color":"","ocean_menu_link_color_hover":"","ocean_menu_link_color_active":"","ocean_menu_link_background":"","ocean_menu_link_hover_background":"","ocean_menu_link_active_background":"","ocean_menu_social_links_bg":"","ocean_menu_social_hover_links_bg":"","ocean_menu_social_links_color":"","ocean_menu_social_hover_links_color":"","ocean_disable_title":"default","ocean_disable_heading":"default","ocean_post_title":"","ocean_post_subheading":"","ocean_post_title_style":"","ocean_post_title_background_color":"","ocean_post_title_background":0,"ocean_post_title_bg_image_position":"","ocean_post_title_bg_image_attachment":"","ocean_post_title_bg_image_repeat":"","ocean_post_title_bg_image_size":"","ocean_post_title_height":0,"ocean_post_title_bg_overlay":0.5,"ocean_post_title_bg_overlay_color":"","ocean_disable_breadcrumbs":"default","ocean_breadcrumbs_color":"","ocean_breadcrumbs_separator_color":"","ocean_breadcrumbs_links_color":"","ocean_breadcrumbs_links_hover_color":"","ocean_display_footer_widgets":"default","ocean_display_footer_bottom":"default","ocean_custom_footer_template":"","_glsr_average":0,"_glsr_ranking":0,"_glsr_reviews":0,"ocean_post_oembed":"","ocean_post_self_hosted_media":"","ocean_post_video_embed":"","ocean_link_format":"","ocean_link_format_target":"self","ocean_quote_format":"","ocean_quote_format_link":"post","ocean_gallery_link_images":"on","ocean_gallery_id":[],"footnotes":""},"categories":[8],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3211","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-english-news","entry","has-media"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.amillex.com\/it\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3211","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.amillex.com\/it\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.amillex.com\/it\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.amillex.com\/it\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.amillex.com\/it\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3211"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.amillex.com\/it\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3211\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":3213,"href":"https:\/\/www.amillex.com\/it\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3211\/revisions\/3213"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.amillex.com\/it\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/3212"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.amillex.com\/it\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3211"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.amillex.com\/it\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3211"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.amillex.com\/it\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3211"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}