{"id":2270,"date":"2025-10-02T16:36:32","date_gmt":"2025-10-02T06:36:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.amillex.com\/?p=2270"},"modified":"2025-12-23T19:30:54","modified_gmt":"2025-12-23T08:30:54","slug":"news20251001en","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.amillex.com\/it\/2025\/10\/02\/news20251001en\/","title":{"rendered":"Amillex Daily Market Commentary: Government Shutdown Triggers Risk-Off Trade, Gold Breaks Above $3,900 to Record High, U.S. Stocks Stage V-Shaped Rebound Amid Rate-Cut Speculationle"},"content":{"rendered":"
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October 2, 2025 \u2013 The first U.S. federal government shutdown in nearly seven years, combined with a surprise contraction in ADP employment data (down 32,000), sparked a surge in risk-off sentiment. Gold broke decisively above the $3,900 mark to a fresh record high, while U.S. equities staged a V-shaped rebound led by pharmaceuticals and semiconductors. Treasury yields fell to a two-week low, and Bitcoin jumped nearly 2%. The central theme remains \u201cpolicy uncertainty reinforcing rate-cut expectations,\u201d with the probability of an October Fed rate cut rising to 96%.<\/mark><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Equities: U.S. stocks rebound, led by healthcare and lithium miners<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Market recap: All three major indices opened lower, with the Dow down 0.22% and the Nasdaq down 0.57% at the open. Gains in pharmaceuticals (Pfizer +6%, Merck +6%) and chip stocks (Nvidia turning higher) fueled the rebound, with the S&P healthcare sector up nearly 2%.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Lithium Americas surged more than 20% after U.S. Department of Energy took an equity stake, while Nike gained 5% on stronger-than-expected earnings.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Government shutdown impact: Key economic data such as nonfarm payrolls may be delayed, complicating Fed decision-making, but markets are betting on policy easing.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Structural opportunities: Pharma stocks benefited from a tariff exemption deal between the Trump administration and Pfizer, while lithium miners gained from policy backing, highlighting the strong outlook for the new energy supply chain.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Precious Metals: Gold hits fresh record highs on safe-haven demand<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Spot gold rose 0.9% to $3,895\/oz, while New York futures broke $3,930, posting a third consecutive record high.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Drivers: The government shutdown stoked political uncertainty, while the negative ADP jobs print (down 32,000) raised concerns over slowing growth.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Rate-cut expectations: CME FedWatch now shows a 99% probability of an October rate cut, with lower real rate expectations supporting gold.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

FX & Bonds: Dollar steady, Treasury yields tumble<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

FX: The dollar index edged up to 97.84, while USD\/JPY was flat at 148.1.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Bonds: The 10-year Treasury yield fell to 4.09% (a two-week low), while the 2-year yield tested 3.54%.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Logic: Weak ADP data triggered a bond-buying rush, though eurozone economic weakness capped dollar downside.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Commodities: Oil stabilizes, lithium in focus<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Energy: Brent crude steadied around $66 after two days of losses. OPEC+ supply increase expectations clashed with prospects of declining U.S. inventories.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Key sector: Lithium prices jumped as U.S. Department of Energy\u2019s investment underscored the strategic value of the new energy supply chain.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Crypto: Bitcoin tops $116K<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Bitcoin rose 1.8% to $116,182, while Ethereum climbed above $4,300 (+3%).<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Drivers: With volatility rising in risk assets, cryptocurrencies \u2014 as high-beta assets \u2014 gained from liquidity expectations, though regulatory risks linger.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Today\u2019s focus<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

U.S. Initial Jobless Claims (20:30): A higher reading than the prior 218k could further reinforce rate-cut expectations.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Eurozone CPI (17:00): Persistently weak inflation may widen ECB-Fed policy divergence.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

U.S. government shutdown progress: Prolonged stalemate may delay nonfarm payrolls, amplifying market swings.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

OPEC+ technical meeting prep: Ahead of the Oct 5 policy meeting, member statements could sway oil sentiment.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<\/div><\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

October 2, 2025 \u2013 The first U.S. federal government shutdown in nearly seven years, combined with a surprise contraction in ADP employment data (down 32,000), sparked a surge in risk-off sentiment. Gold broke decisively above the $3,900 mark to a fresh record high, while U.S. equities staged a V-shaped rebound led by pharmaceuticals and semiconductors. 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