{"id":3485,"date":"2025-12-29T18:24:25","date_gmt":"2025-12-29T07:24:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.amillex.com\/?p=3485"},"modified":"2025-12-29T18:24:40","modified_gmt":"2025-12-29T07:24:40","slug":"amillex-daily-market-commentary%ef%bc%9arate-cut-expectations-and-geopolitical-risks-drive-gold-silver-to-new-highs-oil-under-pressure-amid-russia-ukraine-talks","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.amillex.com\/fr\/2025\/12\/29\/amillex-daily-market-commentary%ef%bc%9arate-cut-expectations-and-geopolitical-risks-drive-gold-silver-to-new-highs-oil-under-pressure-amid-russia-ukraine-talks\/","title":{"rendered":"Commentaire quotidien d&#039;Amillex sur les march\u00e9s\u00a0: Les anticipations de baisse des taux et les risques g\u00e9opolitiques propulsent l&#039;or et l&#039;argent vers de nouveaux sommets, le p\u00e9trole sous pression dans un contexte de n\u00e9gociations russo-ukrainiennes\u00a0"},"content":{"rendered":"<p class=\"has-medium-font-size\"><strong>29 d\u00e9cembre 2025.<\/strong>&nbsp;Lundi matin, en Asie, les m\u00e9taux pr\u00e9cieux ont poursuivi leur forte progression. L&#039;or au comptant s&#039;est maintenu autour de 4\u00a0537 dollars l&#039;once, tandis que l&#039;argent a atteint un record historique \u00e0 83,21 dollars l&#039;once. Cette hausse s&#039;explique par les anticipations croissantes de nouvelles baisses de taux de la R\u00e9serve f\u00e9d\u00e9rale am\u00e9ricaine en 2026, la faiblesse du dollar et l&#039;escalade des risques g\u00e9opolitiques. Parall\u00e8lement, le p\u00e9trole brut WTI s&#039;\u00e9changeait pr\u00e8s de 57,10 dollars le baril, les march\u00e9s \u00e9tant attentifs \u00e0 l&#039;\u00e9volution des n\u00e9gociations de paix entre la Russie et l&#039;Ukraine. Si le pr\u00e9sident am\u00e9ricain Donald Trump et le pr\u00e9sident ukrainien Volodymyr Zelensky n&#039;ont pas r\u00e9ussi \u00e0 trouver un consensus sur les questions territoriales, les discussions sur les garanties de s\u00e9curit\u00e9 seraient sur le point d&#039;aboutir.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:60px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size\"><strong>March\u00e9s des actions<\/strong>&nbsp;Les march\u00e9s sont rest\u00e9s globalement stables vendredi, dans un contexte de faible volume d&#039;\u00e9changes li\u00e9 aux f\u00eates de fin d&#039;ann\u00e9e. Les trois principaux indices am\u00e9ricains ont enregistr\u00e9 de l\u00e9g\u00e8res pertes, mais se sont maintenus proches de leurs records historiques, affichant une performance hebdomadaire toujours positive. Les investisseurs continuent de suivre de pr\u00e8s le fameux \u00ab rallye de No\u00ebl \u00bb, qui, s&#039;il se concr\u00e9tise, est souvent per\u00e7u comme un signal positif pour l&#039;ann\u00e9e \u00e0 venir. Malgr\u00e9 les obstacles que repr\u00e9sentent les droits de douane, les tensions g\u00e9opolitiques et la volatilit\u00e9 des valeurs li\u00e9es \u00e0 l&#039;IA, les principaux indices sont toujours en bonne voie pour afficher des gains \u00e0 deux chiffres en 2025, tir\u00e9s par les valeurs technologiques. Du c\u00f4t\u00e9 sectoriel, les mat\u00e9riaux et la consommation discr\u00e9tionnaire ont surperform\u00e9, tandis que l&#039;immobilier a sous-perform\u00e9. C\u00f4t\u00e9 actions, NVIDIA, Target et les soci\u00e9t\u00e9s mini\u00e8res de m\u00e9taux pr\u00e9cieux cot\u00e9es aux \u00c9tats-Unis ont toutes enregistr\u00e9 de solides gains.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:60px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size\">Dans le&nbsp;<strong>march\u00e9 des m\u00e9taux<\/strong>Le cycle haussier mondial des m\u00e9taux pr\u00e9cieux reste intact. L&#039;argent a progress\u00e9 de plus de 1\u00a0701 milliards de dollars depuis le d\u00e9but de l&#039;ann\u00e9e, tandis que l&#039;or et le platine ont \u00e9galement atteint des sommets historiques. Les analystes estiment que l&#039;argent pourrait fr\u00f4ler les 100 dollars l&#039;once d&#039;ici la fin de l&#039;ann\u00e9e, tandis que l&#039;or viserait une fourchette de 4\u00a0800 \u00e0 5\u00a0000 dollars \u00e0 moyen terme. Cependant, la demande physique montre des signes de divergence, la consommation d&#039;or en Inde \u00e9tant p\u00e9nalis\u00e9e par les prix \u00e9lev\u00e9s.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:60px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size\"><strong>prix du p\u00e9trole<\/strong>&nbsp;Les prix ont chut\u00e9 de plus de 21\u00a0000\u00a0milliards de tonnes la semaine derni\u00e8re, les inqui\u00e9tudes li\u00e9es \u00e0 une offre exc\u00e9dentaire mondiale continuant de dominer le march\u00e9. L\u2019AIE pr\u00e9voit que l\u2019offre mondiale de p\u00e9trole en 2026 d\u00e9passera largement la demande. Tout progr\u00e8s vers un accord de paix entre la Russie et l\u2019Ukraine \u2013 pouvant entra\u00eener un all\u00e8gement des sanctions sur le p\u00e9trole russe \u2013 pourrait modifier davantage la dynamique de l\u2019offre mondiale.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:60px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size\">Dans&nbsp;<strong>March\u00e9s des changes<\/strong>Le yen japonais s&#039;est affaibli durant la p\u00e9riode des f\u00eates, tandis que le dollar am\u00e9ricain s&#039;est l\u00e9g\u00e8rement appr\u00e9ci\u00e9. Malgr\u00e9 les r\u00e9centes hausses de taux de la Banque du Japon, la politique budg\u00e9taire expansionniste continue de peser sur le yen, incitant les autorit\u00e9s japonaises \u00e0 \u00e9voquer \u00e0 plusieurs reprises la n\u00e9cessit\u00e9 d&#039;une intervention. Les march\u00e9s anticipent g\u00e9n\u00e9ralement deux \u00e0 trois baisses de taux de la Fed en 2026, ce qui maintiendra la pression \u00e0 moyen terme sur le dollar.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:60px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size\">Sur le&nbsp;<strong>front g\u00e9opolitique<\/strong>Trump et Zelensky ont fait \u00e9tat de progr\u00e8s substantiels sur les arrangements de s\u00e9curit\u00e9 lors des pourparlers russo-ukrainiens, bien que les questions territoriales demeurent non r\u00e9solues. Parall\u00e8lement, les tensions entre les \u00c9tats-Unis et Isra\u00ebl persistent au sujet des n\u00e9gociations sur le cessez-le-feu \u00e0 Gaza. D&#039;autres d\u00e9veloppements, tels que les pourparlers parlementaires russo-am\u00e9ricains pr\u00e9vus, la reprise de la part de march\u00e9 de la construction navale sud-cor\u00e9enne, la hausse des prix alimentaires au Japon et la volont\u00e9 du Zimbabwe d&#039;adopter un syst\u00e8me mon\u00e9taire unique sous le nom de ZiG, restent \u00e9galement au centre de l&#039;attention.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:60px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size\"><strong>Donn\u00e9es \u00e9conomiques (\u00c9v\u00e9nements cl\u00e9s du jour)<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li class=\"has-medium-font-size\">\u00c9volution des stocks de p\u00e9trole brut de l&#039;EIA aux \u00c9tats-Unis (semaine se terminant le 19 d\u00e9cembre, en millions de barils)\u00a0<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li class=\"has-medium-font-size\">\u00c9volution des stocks d&#039;essence de l&#039;EIA aux \u00c9tats-Unis (semaine se terminant le 19 d\u00e9cembre, en millions de barils)\u00a0<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li class=\"has-medium-font-size\">Variation hebdomadaire des importations de p\u00e9trole brut de l&#039;EIA am\u00e9ricaine (semaine se terminant le 19 d\u00e9cembre, en millions de barils)\u00a0<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li class=\"has-medium-font-size\">Stocks de p\u00e9trole brut de Cushing, Oklahoma (semaine se terminant le 19 d\u00e9cembre, en millions de barils) selon l&#039;EIA am\u00e9ricaine\u00a0<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li class=\"has-medium-font-size\">\u00c9volution des stocks de distillats de fioul domestique de l&#039;EIA am\u00e9ricaine (semaine se terminant le 19 d\u00e9cembre, en millions de barils)\u00a0<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li class=\"has-medium-font-size\">Ventes de maisons en attente aux \u00c9tats-Unis m\/m\u00a0<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:60px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>December 29, 2025.&nbsp;During early Asian trading on Monday, precious metals extended their strong rally. Spot gold hovered around USD 4,537 per ounce, while silver surged to a record high of USD 83.21 per ounce. The rally has been driven by rising expectations of further U.S. Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026, a softer U.S. dollar, [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":3486,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"ocean_post_layout":"","ocean_both_sidebars_style":"","ocean_both_sidebars_content_width":0,"ocean_both_sidebars_sidebars_width":0,"ocean_sidebar":"","ocean_second_sidebar":"","ocean_disable_margins":"enable","ocean_add_body_class":"","ocean_shortcode_before_top_bar":"","ocean_shortcode_after_top_bar":"","ocean_shortcode_before_header":"","ocean_shortcode_after_header":"","ocean_has_shortcode":"","ocean_shortcode_after_title":"","ocean_shortcode_before_footer_widgets":"","ocean_shortcode_after_footer_widgets":"","ocean_shortcode_before_footer_bottom":"","ocean_shortcode_after_footer_bottom":"","ocean_display_top_bar":"default","ocean_display_header":"default","ocean_header_style":"","ocean_center_header_left_menu":"","ocean_custom_header_template":"","ocean_custom_logo":0,"ocean_custom_retina_logo":0,"ocean_custom_logo_max_width":0,"ocean_custom_logo_tablet_max_width":0,"ocean_custom_logo_mobile_max_width":0,"ocean_custom_logo_max_height":0,"ocean_custom_logo_tablet_max_height":0,"ocean_custom_logo_mobile_max_height":0,"ocean_header_custom_menu":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_family":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_subset":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_size":0,"ocean_menu_typo_font_size_tablet":0,"ocean_menu_typo_font_size_mobile":0,"ocean_menu_typo_font_size_unit":"px","ocean_menu_typo_font_weight":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_weight_tablet":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_weight_mobile":"","ocean_menu_typo_transform":"","ocean_menu_typo_transform_tablet":"","ocean_menu_typo_transform_mobile":"","ocean_menu_typo_line_height":0,"ocean_menu_typo_line_height_tablet":0,"ocean_menu_typo_line_height_mobile":0,"ocean_menu_typo_line_height_unit":"","ocean_menu_typo_spacing":0,"ocean_menu_typo_spacing_tablet":0,"ocean_menu_typo_spacing_mobile":0,"ocean_menu_typo_spacing_unit":"","ocean_menu_link_color":"","ocean_menu_link_color_hover":"","ocean_menu_link_color_active":"","ocean_menu_link_background":"","ocean_menu_link_hover_background":"","ocean_menu_link_active_background":"","ocean_menu_social_links_bg":"","ocean_menu_social_hover_links_bg":"","ocean_menu_social_links_color":"","ocean_menu_social_hover_links_color":"","ocean_disable_title":"default","ocean_disable_heading":"default","ocean_post_title":"","ocean_post_subheading":"","ocean_post_title_style":"","ocean_post_title_background_color":"","ocean_post_title_background":0,"ocean_post_title_bg_image_position":"","ocean_post_title_bg_image_attachment":"","ocean_post_title_bg_image_repeat":"","ocean_post_title_bg_image_size":"","ocean_post_title_height":0,"ocean_post_title_bg_overlay":0.5,"ocean_post_title_bg_overlay_color":"","ocean_disable_breadcrumbs":"default","ocean_breadcrumbs_color":"","ocean_breadcrumbs_separator_color":"","ocean_breadcrumbs_links_color":"","ocean_breadcrumbs_links_hover_color":"","ocean_display_footer_widgets":"default","ocean_display_footer_bottom":"default","ocean_custom_footer_template":"","ocean_post_oembed":"","ocean_post_self_hosted_media":"","ocean_post_video_embed":"","ocean_link_format":"","ocean_link_format_target":"self","ocean_quote_format":"","ocean_quote_format_link":"post","ocean_gallery_link_images":"on","ocean_gallery_id":[],"footnotes":""},"categories":[8],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3485","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-english-news","entry","has-media"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.amillex.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3485","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.amillex.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.amillex.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.amillex.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.amillex.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3485"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.amillex.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3485\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":3487,"href":"https:\/\/www.amillex.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3485\/revisions\/3487"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.amillex.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/3486"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.amillex.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3485"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.amillex.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3485"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.amillex.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3485"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}