{"id":3373,"date":"2025-12-11T19:16:09","date_gmt":"2025-12-11T08:16:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.amillex.com\/?p=3373"},"modified":"2025-12-23T19:25:37","modified_gmt":"2025-12-23T08:25:37","slug":"20251210en","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.amillex.com\/fr\/2025\/12\/11\/20251210en\/","title":{"rendered":"Commentaire quotidien d&#039;Amillex sur les march\u00e9s\u00a0: La Fed abaisse son taux directeur de 25\u00a0points de base pour la troisi\u00e8me fois cette ann\u00e9e\u00a0; les divisions internes atteignent un sommet en six ans\u00a0; l&#039;argent d\u00e9passe le seuil de $61 et \u00e9tablit un nouveau record.\u00a0"},"content":{"rendered":"<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Principaux enseignements de la r\u00e9union du FOMC de d\u00e9cembre&nbsp;<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Taux des fonds f\u00e9d\u00e9raux\u00a0: La fourchette cible est abaiss\u00e9e de 3,75%\u20134,00% \u00e0 3,50%\u20133,75%, ce qui repr\u00e9sente la troisi\u00e8me baisse cons\u00e9cutive de 25\u00a0points de base cette ann\u00e9e et une r\u00e9duction totale de 75\u00a0points de base en 2025.&nbsp;<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Graphique \u00e0 points\u00a0: Il n\u2019indique toujours qu\u2019une seule baisse de taux en 2026, renfor\u00e7ant ainsi le message d\u2019un assouplissement restrictif, avec un rythme de politique mon\u00e9taire nettement plus lent attendu l\u2019ann\u00e9e prochaine.&nbsp;<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Intensification des d\u00e9saccords internes&nbsp;<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Le vote a enregistr\u00e9 trois voix dissidentes, soit le nombre le plus \u00e9lev\u00e9 depuis 2019.&nbsp;<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Le gouverneur Milan a vot\u00e9 pour une r\u00e9duction de 50 points de base.&nbsp;<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">tandis que Goolsbee et Schmid pr\u00e9f\u00e9raient le statu quo.&nbsp;<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Cela met en \u00e9vidence les divisions croissantes au sein du FOMC concernant la persistance de l&#039;inflation et les risques li\u00e9s au march\u00e9 du travail.&nbsp;<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Op\u00e9rations du bilan&nbsp;<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u00c0 compter du 12 d\u00e9cembre, la Fed ach\u00e8tera $40 milliards de dollars de bons du Tr\u00e9sor \u00e0 court terme afin de maintenir des r\u00e9serves suffisantes et d&#039;att\u00e9nuer les tensions sur la liquidit\u00e9 du march\u00e9 mon\u00e9taire.&nbsp;<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Revue des march\u00e9s mondiaux \u2013 10 d\u00e9cembre&nbsp;<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">M\u00e9taux pr\u00e9cieux\u00a0: l\u2019argent en t\u00eate atteint un niveau record\u00a0; le ratio or\/argent passe sous la barre des 70.&nbsp;<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Le cours de l&#039;argent au comptant a augment\u00e9 de 0,68% \u00e0 $61,05\/oz, en hausse de pr\u00e8s de 110% depuis le d\u00e9but de l&#039;ann\u00e9e.&nbsp;<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">L&#039;or a gliss\u00e9 de 0,27% \u00e0 $4,196\/oz.&nbsp;<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Principaux facteurs moteurs :&nbsp;<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">P\u00e9nurie d&#039;approvisionnement\u00a0: les stocks mondiaux sont au plus bas depuis dix ans\u00a0; la demande en mat\u00e9riel solaire et d&#039;IA continue de monter en fl\u00e8che.&nbsp;<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Flux sp\u00e9culatifs\u00a0: comptes de d\u00e9tail et comptes \u00e0 effet de levier se positionnant de mani\u00e8re agressive en vue d\u2019une perc\u00e9e.&nbsp;<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Change et obligations : Le dollar reste stable, les rendements am\u00e9ricains se maintiennent pr\u00e8s de leur plus haut niveau en 3 mois.&nbsp;<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">L&#039;indice DXY est rest\u00e9 stable aux alentours de 99,0, les march\u00e9s ayant d\u00e9j\u00e0 int\u00e9gr\u00e9 la baisse des taux bien \u00e0 l&#039;avance.&nbsp;<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Le rendement des obligations d&#039;\u00c9tat am\u00e9ricaines \u00e0 10 ans reste stable \u00e0 4,20%, refl\u00e9tant les inqui\u00e9tudes li\u00e9es \u00e0 une inflation persistante.&nbsp;<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Le cours USD\/JPY progresse l\u00e9g\u00e8rement \u00e0 156,70, les anticipations d&#039;une hausse des taux de la Banque du Japon en d\u00e9cembre compensant en partie la pression \u00e0 l&#039;assouplissement de la politique mon\u00e9taire de la Fed.&nbsp;<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">P\u00e9trole et cryptomonnaies\u00a0: g\u00e9opolitique et incertitude politique s\u2019entrem\u00ealent&nbsp;<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">P\u00e9trole\u00a0: Le Brent progresse de 0,181\u00a0TP3T pour atteindre $62,05\u00a0$\/baril. Les avanc\u00e9es dans les pourparlers de paix russo-ukrainiens (Zelensky proposant un cadre de paix par \u00e9tapes) ont limit\u00e9 les primes g\u00e9opolitiques.&nbsp;<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Cryptomonnaies\u00a0: Bitcoin stable \u00e0 $92\u00a0623\u00a0; Ethereum en hausse de 0,6% alors que les march\u00e9s attendent des indications plus claires sur la trajectoire de la politique mon\u00e9taire de la Fed.&nbsp;<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Actions : La prudence est de mise avant la d\u00e9cision du FOMC&nbsp;<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Contrats \u00e0 terme sur actions am\u00e9ricaines : le S&amp;P 500 et le Nasdaq 100 baissent de 0,1% \u00e0 0,2%, les investisseurs technologiques attendant les r\u00e9sultats d&#039;Oracle pour obtenir des indices sur la demande li\u00e9e \u00e0 l&#039;IA.&nbsp;<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Europe et Asie :&nbsp;<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Nikkei 225 en baisse de 0,1%&nbsp;<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">L&#039;Euro Stoxx 50 baisse de 0,06%, sous la pression des valeurs bancaires et \u00e9nerg\u00e9tiques.&nbsp;<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u00c9v\u00e9nements cl\u00e9s \u00e0 suivre aujourd&#039;hui&nbsp;<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Intervenants de la Fed : le pr\u00e9sident de la Fed de Chicago, Goolsbee, et le pr\u00e9sident de la Fed de Cleveland, Mester (Harmack ?), commenteront les perspectives \u00e9conomiques \u2014 les march\u00e9s suivront de pr\u00e8s leurs interpr\u00e9tations de la division interne.&nbsp;<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Le gouverneur de la Banque du Japon, Ueda, devrait confirmer les anticipations d&#039;une hausse des taux en d\u00e9cembre, ce qui pourrait entra\u00eener des d\u00e9bouclements de positions de portage en yens.&nbsp;<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Publication des donn\u00e9es :&nbsp;<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Taux de ch\u00f4mage en Australie en novembre (corrig\u00e9 des variations saisonni\u00e8res)&nbsp;<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Taux directeur de la BNS suisse (au 11 d\u00e9cembre)&nbsp;<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Demandes initiales d&#039;allocations ch\u00f4mage aux \u00c9tats-Unis (semaine se terminant le 6 d\u00e9cembre)&nbsp;<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Balance commerciale am\u00e9ricaine de septembre&nbsp;<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Ventes de gros am\u00e9ricaines de septembre (MoM)&nbsp;<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Stockage de gaz naturel de l&#039;EIA am\u00e9ricaine (semaine se terminant le 5 d\u00e9cembre)&nbsp;<\/h2>\n<\/blockquote>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Key Takeaways from the December FOMC Meeting&nbsp; Federal funds rate: Target range lowered from 3.75%\u20134.00% to 3.50%\u20133.75%, marking the third consecutive 25bp rate cut this year and a total reduction of 75bp in 2025.&nbsp; Dot plot: Still signals only one rate cut in 2026, reinforcing a message of hawkish easing, with a significantly slower policy 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