{"id":3338,"date":"2025-12-09T20:20:47","date_gmt":"2025-12-09T09:20:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.amillex.com\/?p=3338"},"modified":"2025-12-23T19:25:17","modified_gmt":"2025-12-23T08:25:17","slug":"2025128en","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.amillex.com\/fr\/2025\/12\/09\/2025128en\/","title":{"rendered":"Commentaire quotidien d&#039;Amillex sur les march\u00e9s\u00a0: Prudence avant la d\u00e9cision de la Fed, ouverture en l\u00e9g\u00e8re hausse des actions am\u00e9ricaines, rendements japonais au plus haut depuis 18\u00a0ans, le cuivre franchit la barre des 11\u00a0742\u00a0USD et \u00e9tablit un nouveau record"},"content":{"rendered":"<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">9 d\u00e9cembre 2025 \u2014 Les trois principaux indices boursiers am\u00e9ricains ont ouvert en l\u00e9g\u00e8re hausse, le S&amp;P 500 gagnant 0,071\u00a0TP3T\u00a0; l\u2019indice du dollar am\u00e9ricain a l\u00e9g\u00e8rement baiss\u00e9 tandis que le yen est rest\u00e9 sous pression\u00a0; le rendement des obligations d\u2019\u00c9tat japonaises \u00e0 10\u00a0ans a grimp\u00e9 \u00e0 1,9551\u00a0TP3T, son plus haut niveau depuis juillet\u00a02007\u00a0; le cuivre du LME a franchi la barre des 11\u00a0742\u00a0USD\/tonne pour \u00e9tablir un nouveau record historique\u00a0; le Bitcoin a rebondi \u00e0 91\u00a0223\u00a0USD.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">March\u00e9s cl\u00e9s et analyse fondamentale<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">1. March\u00e9 actions am\u00e9ricain : le secteur technologique tire les gains, les investisseurs attendent la d\u00e9cision de la Fed<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">S&amp;P 500 : +0,07% \u00e0 6\u00a0875,20<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Dow Jones : +0,03% \u00e0 47\u00a0971,51<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Nasdaq : +0,25% \u00e0 23\u00a0638,22<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Performance du secteur :<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">ETF semi-conducteurs : +1,57%<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">ETF technologique : +1,10%<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">ETF \u00c9nergie : \u20130,48%<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">D\u00e9m\u00e9nageurs notables :<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Broadcom +1,48%\u00a0: Optimisme persistant concernant la demande de puces IA<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Marvell Technology \u20139.8%\u00a0: Benchmark avertit qu\u2019elle pourrait perdre des commandes Amazon<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Principaux moteurs\u00a0:<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Les anticipations de baisse des taux se confirment\u00a0:<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Les march\u00e9s anticipent pleinement une baisse de 25 points de base des taux de la Fed en d\u00e9cembre ; l&#039;attention se porte d\u00e9sormais sur le graphique \u00e0 points et les indications concernant l&#039;\u00e9volution des taux en 2026.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Soutien saisonnier :<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Daniel Murray, d&#039;EFG Asset Management, a not\u00e9 que la vigueur historique du mois de d\u00e9cembre et le positionnement de fin d&#039;ann\u00e9e attirent des flux de capitaux.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">2. March\u00e9 des changes : Le dollar recule l\u00e9g\u00e8rement, la faiblesse du yen persiste.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">L&#039;indice du dollar am\u00e9ricain a l\u00e9g\u00e8rement recul\u00e9.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">La paire EUR\/USD a progress\u00e9 de 0,1% pour atteindre 1,1654.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Le taux de change JPY\/USD a oscill\u00e9 autour de 155, la contraction du PIB japonais accentuant le dilemme politique.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Contexte politique\u00a0:<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Avertissement de la Fed :<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Barclays pr\u00e9voit que 2026 pourrait devenir une \u00ab ann\u00e9e de pause \u00bb, l&#039;inflation persistante limitant les marges de man\u0153uvre pour un assouplissement de la politique mon\u00e9taire.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Pression sur les taux de la BOJ :<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Des donn\u00e9es \u00e9conomiques faibles (l&#039;indice Economy Watchers de novembre s&#039;\u00e9tablit \u00e0 50,3, bien en de\u00e7\u00e0 des attentes) et la flamb\u00e9e des rendements obligataires cr\u00e9ent une contradiction politique.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">3. March\u00e9 obligataire\u00a0: La vente massive mondiale s\u2019intensifie, le Japon et l\u2019Allemagne atteignent des sommets pluriannuels<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Obligations d&#039;\u00c9tat japonaises :<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Rendement \u00e0 10 ans\u00a0: 1,955%, le plus haut niveau depuis juillet 2007<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Rendement \u00e0 5 ans\u00a0: 1,44%, le plus haut niveau depuis juin 2008<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Conducteurs :<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">La probabilit\u00e9 d&#039;une hausse des taux de la Banque du Japon en d\u00e9cembre passe \u00e0 70%.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Une contraction du PIB plus marqu\u00e9e que pr\u00e9vu a d\u00e9clench\u00e9 des ventes massives d&#039;actifs \u00e0 risque.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Obligations europ\u00e9ennes :<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Rendement des obligations allemandes \u00e0 10 ans\u00a0: 2,841\u00a0TP3T, son plus haut niveau depuis mars<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Rendement \u00e0 30 ans\u00a0: 3,441%, le plus \u00e9lev\u00e9 depuis 2011<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Signaux agressifs :<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Isabel Schnabel, responsable \u00e0 la BCE, a d\u00e9clar\u00e9 qu&#039;elle \u00ab se f\u00e9licitait de la prise en compte par le march\u00e9 des hausses de taux \u00bb, ce qui a incit\u00e9 les march\u00e9s mon\u00e9taires \u00e0 revoir \u00e0 la baisse leurs anticipations de r\u00e9duction des taux.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">4. Mati\u00e8res premi\u00e8res : Le cuivre \u00e9tablit un nouveau record, le p\u00e9trole se r\u00e9\u00e9quilibre sur fond de signaux mitig\u00e9s<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">March\u00e9 du cuivre :<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Le cuivre du LME a franchi la barre des 11\u00a0742 USD\/tonne.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Les contrats \u00e0 terme \u00e0 Shanghai ont suivi la hausse.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Soutien fondamental :<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Perturbations de l&#039;approvisionnement\u00a0:<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Les cons\u00e9quences de l&#039;accident minier de Glencore au Chili se font toujours sentir ; les stocks du LME sont tomb\u00e9s sous la barre des 100 000 tonnes.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Forte hausse de la demande :<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Le d\u00e9veloppement des centres de donn\u00e9es d&#039;IA et la modernisation du r\u00e9seau \u00e9lectrique soutiennent la demande \u00e0 long terme\u00a0; la constitution de stocks pour contourner les droits de douane r\u00e9duit encore davantage l&#039;offre au comptant.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">March\u00e9 p\u00e9trolier :<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Le prix du p\u00e9trole brut WTI oscillait autour de 60 dollars le baril.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Le Brent s&#039;\u00e9changeait \u00e0 63,75 USD le baril.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Facteurs d&#039;attraction et de r\u00e9pulsion\u00a0:<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Le respect des quotas de l&#039;OPEP+ s&#039;est affaibli (production de novembre : -30 000 barils par jour)<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Le nombre de plateformes de forage aux \u00c9tats-Unis a augment\u00e9 de 5 pour atteindre 549, accentuant la pression sur l&#039;offre.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">5. M\u00e9taux pr\u00e9cieux et cryptomonnaies\u00a0: l\u2019or se stabilise, le bitcoin rebondit<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">M\u00e9taux pr\u00e9cieux :<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Le cours de l&#039;or au comptant s&#039;est maintenu aux alentours de 4\u00a0220 dollars, soutenu par la demande des banques centrales.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Les r\u00e9serves d&#039;or de la Chine ont augment\u00e9 pour le 13e mois cons\u00e9cutif<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Cryptomonnaies :<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Bitcoin : +1,11 TP3T \u00e0 91\u00a0223 USD<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Ethereum : +1,21 TP3T \u00e0 3\u00a0123 USD<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Sentiment du march\u00e9\u00a0:<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Les anticipations de baisse des taux de la Fed ont soutenu les actifs \u00e0 risque.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Mais la pression r\u00e9glementaire persiste : sept associations chinoises ont conjointement publi\u00e9 des avertissements concernant les risques li\u00e9s aux monnaies virtuelles.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">L&#039;objectif du jour<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Pr\u00e9visions d&#039;inflation \u00e0 un an de la R\u00e9serve f\u00e9d\u00e9rale am\u00e9ricaine de New York (novembre)<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">D\u00e9cision de la Banque de r\u00e9serve d&#039;Australie concernant les taux d&#039;int\u00e9r\u00eat (9 d\u00e9cembre)<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Balance commerciale de l&#039;Allemagne en octobre (corrig\u00e9e des variations saisonni\u00e8res)<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Indice d&#039;optimisme des petites entreprises de la NFIB am\u00e9ricaine (novembre)<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Offres d&#039;emploi chez US JOLTS (octobre)<\/h2>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>December 9, 2025 \u2014 The three major U.S. equity indices opened slightly higher, with the S&amp;P 500 up 0.07%; the U.S. Dollar Index edged lower while the yen remained under pressure; the 10-year Japanese government bond yield surged to 1.955%, the highest since July 2007; LME copper broke above USD 11,742\/ton to set another all-time [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":3339,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"ocean_post_layout":"","ocean_both_sidebars_style":"","ocean_both_sidebars_content_width":0,"ocean_both_sidebars_sidebars_width":0,"ocean_sidebar":"","ocean_second_sidebar":"","ocean_disable_margins":"enable","ocean_add_body_class":"","ocean_shortcode_before_top_bar":"","ocean_shortcode_after_top_bar":"","ocean_shortcode_before_header":"","ocean_shortcode_after_header":"","ocean_has_shortcode":"","ocean_shortcode_after_title":"","ocean_shortcode_before_footer_widgets":"","ocean_shortcode_after_footer_widgets":"","ocean_shortcode_before_footer_bottom":"","ocean_shortcode_after_footer_bottom":"","ocean_display_top_bar":"default","ocean_display_header":"default","ocean_header_style":"","ocean_center_header_left_menu":"","ocean_custom_header_template":"","ocean_custom_logo":0,"ocean_custom_retina_logo":0,"ocean_custom_logo_max_width":0,"ocean_custom_logo_tablet_max_width":0,"ocean_custom_logo_mobile_max_width":0,"ocean_custom_logo_max_height":0,"ocean_custom_logo_tablet_max_height":0,"ocean_custom_logo_mobile_max_height":0,"ocean_header_custom_menu":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_family":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_subset":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_size":0,"ocean_menu_typo_font_size_tablet":0,"ocean_menu_typo_font_size_mobile":0,"ocean_menu_typo_font_size_unit":"px","ocean_menu_typo_font_weight":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_weight_tablet":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_weight_mobile":"","ocean_menu_typo_transform":"","ocean_menu_typo_transform_tablet":"","ocean_menu_typo_transform_mobile":"","ocean_menu_typo_line_height":0,"ocean_menu_typo_line_height_tablet":0,"ocean_menu_typo_line_height_mobile":0,"ocean_menu_typo_line_height_unit":"","ocean_menu_typo_spacing":0,"ocean_menu_typo_spacing_tablet":0,"ocean_menu_typo_spacing_mobile":0,"ocean_menu_typo_spacing_unit":"","ocean_menu_link_color":"","ocean_menu_link_color_hover":"","ocean_menu_link_color_active":"","ocean_menu_link_background":"","ocean_menu_link_hover_background":"","ocean_menu_link_active_background":"","ocean_menu_social_links_bg":"","ocean_menu_social_hover_links_bg":"","ocean_menu_social_links_color":"","ocean_menu_social_hover_links_color":"","ocean_disable_title":"default","ocean_disable_heading":"default","ocean_post_title":"","ocean_post_subheading":"","ocean_post_title_style":"","ocean_post_title_background_color":"","ocean_post_title_background":0,"ocean_post_title_bg_image_position":"","ocean_post_title_bg_image_attachment":"","ocean_post_title_bg_image_repeat":"","ocean_post_title_bg_image_size":"","ocean_post_title_height":0,"ocean_post_title_bg_overlay":0.5,"ocean_post_title_bg_overlay_color":"","ocean_disable_breadcrumbs":"default","ocean_breadcrumbs_color":"","ocean_breadcrumbs_separator_color":"","ocean_breadcrumbs_links_color":"","ocean_breadcrumbs_links_hover_color":"","ocean_display_footer_widgets":"default","ocean_display_footer_bottom":"default","ocean_custom_footer_template":"","ocean_post_oembed":"","ocean_post_self_hosted_media":"","ocean_post_video_embed":"","ocean_link_format":"","ocean_link_format_target":"self","ocean_quote_format":"","ocean_quote_format_link":"post","ocean_gallery_link_images":"on","ocean_gallery_id":[],"footnotes":""},"categories":[8],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3338","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-english-news","entry","has-media"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.amillex.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3338","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.amillex.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.amillex.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.amillex.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.amillex.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3338"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.amillex.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3338\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":3340,"href":"https:\/\/www.amillex.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3338\/revisions\/3340"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.amillex.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/3339"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.amillex.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3338"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.amillex.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3338"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.amillex.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3338"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}