{"id":3310,"date":"2025-12-04T19:36:09","date_gmt":"2025-12-04T08:36:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.amillex.com\/?p=3310"},"modified":"2025-12-23T19:32:39","modified_gmt":"2025-12-23T08:32:39","slug":"2025123en","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.amillex.com\/fr\/2025\/12\/04\/2025123en\/","title":{"rendered":"Commentaire quotidien d&#039;Amillex sur les march\u00e9s\u00a0: Le chiffre d\u00e9cevant des contrats \u00e0 terme sur les produits non agricoles am\u00e9ricains d\u00e9clenche des op\u00e9rations de baisse des taux, le dollar recule, l&#039;or d\u00e9passe les 4\u00a0220\u00a0$ ($), le cuivre du LME atteint un record historique au-dessus de 11\u00a0375\u00a0$ ($)."},"content":{"rendered":"<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">4 d\u00e9cembre 2025 \u2014 Les actions am\u00e9ricaines ont ouvert en forte baisse mercredi, le S&amp;P 500 reculant de 0,211\u00a0TP3T. L\u2019indice du dollar am\u00e9ricain a plong\u00e9 \u00e0 98,90, son plus bas niveau en quatre mois. L\u2019or au comptant a bondi au-dessus de 4\u00a0220\u00a0$\/oz, tandis que le cuivre du LME a grimp\u00e9 de 21\u00a0TP3T \u00e0 11\u00a0375,6\u00a0$\/tonne, un nouveau record historique. Le bitcoin a rebondi en V pour atteindre 93\u00a0300\u00a0$.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Principaux mouvements du march\u00e9 et analyse fondamentale<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">1. Actions am\u00e9ricaines\u00a0: La faiblesse des indicateurs \u00e9conomiques freine l\u2019app\u00e9tit pour le risque, le secteur technologique est en t\u00eate des baisses.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">S&amp;P 500 \u22120,21% \u00e0 6\u00a0815,29<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Dow Jones \u22120,22% \u00e0 47\u00a0371,62<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Nasdaq \u22120,42% \u00e0 23\u00a0315,58<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Points saillants du titre\u00a0:<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Microsoft -2,9% en raison d&#039;une demande de logiciels d&#039;IA plus faible que pr\u00e9vu<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Les valeurs des semi-conducteurs sont globalement sous pression.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Pilotes principaux\u00a0:<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">D\u00e9t\u00e9rioration du march\u00e9 du travail :<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">L&#039;emploi aux \u00c9tats-Unis, selon les donn\u00e9es ADP de novembre, a chut\u00e9 de 32\u00a0000 postes (contre +10\u00a0000 attendus), marquant ainsi le quatri\u00e8me recul mensuel cons\u00e9cutif et le pire r\u00e9sultat depuis d\u00e9but 2023.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Attentes croissantes en mati\u00e8re de politique mon\u00e9taire\u00a0:<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">La probabilit\u00e9 d&#039;une baisse des taux de la Fed en d\u00e9cembre a grimp\u00e9 \u00e0 90%, Trump privil\u00e9giant apparemment le candidat accommodant Kevin Hassett comme prochain pr\u00e9sident de la Fed.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Point de vue institutionnel\u00a0:<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Brown Brothers Harriman a not\u00e9 que l&#039;affaiblissement de la demande de main-d&#039;\u0153uvre et le ralentissement de la consommation justifient un nouvel assouplissement de la politique mon\u00e9taire de la Fed.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">2. March\u00e9 des changes\u00a0: Le dollar chute \u00e0 son plus bas niveau en quatre mois, forte hausse des devises autres que le dollar am\u00e9ricain<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Indice du dollar \u22120,3% \u00e0 98,90<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">L&#039;EUR\/USD atteint 1,1650, le GBP\/USD franchit la barre des 1,3250.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">USD\/JPY \u22120,2% \u00e0 155,54<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">La roupie indienne s&#039;affaiblit \u00e0 90,28, un niveau record.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Interpr\u00e9tation fondamentale :<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Logique de r\u00e9duction des taux renforc\u00e9e\u00a0:<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Les faibles donn\u00e9es ADP ont accentu\u00e9 les craintes de ralentissement \u00e9conomique. La baisse des rendements des bons du Tr\u00e9sor (\u00e0 10 ans, le taux est retomb\u00e9 \u00e0 4,05%) a pes\u00e9 sur le dollar.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Divergence EM :<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Le RMB offshore s&#039;est renforc\u00e9 \u00e0 7,0585, un sommet en 14 mois, tandis que les sorties de capitaux et les d\u00e9ficits commerciaux ont fait baisser la roupie indienne.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">3. M\u00e9taux pr\u00e9cieux\u00a0: La demande de valeurs refuges fait grimper l\u2019or et l\u2019argent, les risques d\u2019approvisionnement s\u2019accentuent.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Or au comptant +0,4% \u00e0 $4\u00a0223,13\u00a0$\/oz<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Argent au comptant +0,5% \u00e0 $58,76\/oz<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Principaux facteurs moteurs :<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">R\u00e9duire les attentes :<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">La probabilit\u00e9 accrue d&#039;une baisse des taux de la Fed r\u00e9duit le co\u00fbt d&#039;opportunit\u00e9 de la d\u00e9tention d&#039;actifs non r\u00e9mun\u00e9rateurs, la baisse des rendements r\u00e9els soutenant l&#039;or.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">P\u00e9nuries structurelles :<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Les stocks mondiaux d&#039;argent ont chut\u00e9 \u00e0 leur plus bas niveau en dix ans, tandis que la forte demande en \u00e9nergie solaire intensifie les inqui\u00e9tudes concernant l&#039;approvisionnement.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Perspectives techniques :<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">L&#039;or a franchi de mani\u00e8re d\u00e9cisive la r\u00e9sistance cl\u00e9 de $4,200, avec un objectif \u00e0 court terme vers $4,250.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">4. Mati\u00e8res premi\u00e8res : Le cuivre atteint un niveau record, la prime g\u00e9opolitique du p\u00e9trole recule<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">March\u00e9 du cuivre<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Cuivre LME +2% \u00e0 $11\u00a0375,6\/tonne<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Les contrats \u00e0 terme sur le cuivre \u00e0 Shanghai d\u00e9passent les 90\u00a0000 RMB\/tonne.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Conducteurs :<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Perturbations de l&#039;approvisionnement :<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Des gr\u00e8ves fr\u00e9quentes au Chili et au P\u00e9rou ont entra\u00een\u00e9 une baisse des stocks enregistr\u00e9s par le LME \u00e0 180 000 tonnes, un niveau cycliquement bas.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u00c9vitement des droits de douane\u00a0:<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Les n\u00e9gociants exp\u00e9dient en urgence des cargaisons physiques de cuivre vers les \u00c9tats-Unis avant l&#039;entr\u00e9e en vigueur potentielle de droits de douane \u00e0 l&#039;importation, ce qui entra\u00eene de fortes primes au comptant r\u00e9gionales.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Huile brute<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Le p\u00e9trole brut WTI augmente de 0,41 TP3T \u00e0 $58,9\/baril<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Tir \u00e0 la corde taureau-ours :<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Les pourparlers de cessez-le-feu entre l&#039;Ukraine et la Russie limitent les enjeux g\u00e9opolitiques.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Les stocks de p\u00e9trole brut de l&#039;API ont augment\u00e9 de 2,48 millions de barils, limitant ainsi le potentiel de hausse.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">5. March\u00e9 des cryptomonnaies\u00a0: Le Bitcoin conna\u00eet un rebond en V, la pression \u00e0 la liquidation s\u2019att\u00e9nue<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Le Bitcoin a rebondi apr\u00e8s avoir atteint un plus bas intraday de $91,500 \u00e0 $93,300.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Ethereum a suivi la hausse.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Sentiment du march\u00e9 :<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Rebond technique :<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Couverture de positions courtes apr\u00e8s des conditions de survente ; l&#039;int\u00e9r\u00eat ouvert sur les produits d\u00e9riv\u00e9s a augment\u00e9 de 8% en journ\u00e9e.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Surcharge r\u00e9glementaire :<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">La SEC am\u00e9ricaine continue de renforcer sa surveillance des stablecoins, tandis que la Banque populaire de Chine a r\u00e9it\u00e9r\u00e9 sa r\u00e9pression contre la sp\u00e9culation ill\u00e9gale sur les cryptomonnaies.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Donn\u00e9es sur la cha\u00eene :<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Les portefeuilles des baleines ont ajout\u00e9 12\u00a0000 BTC au cours de la semaine \u00e9coul\u00e9e, ce qui indique une accumulation \u00e0 long terme.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">L&#039;objectif du jour<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Taux de ch\u00f4mage corrig\u00e9 des variations saisonni\u00e8res en Suisse en novembre<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Ventes au d\u00e9tail en zone euro en octobre (variation mensuelle)<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Annonces de suppressions d&#039;emplois chez Challenger aux \u00c9tats-Unis en novembre<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Demandes initiales d&#039;allocations ch\u00f4mage hebdomadaires aux \u00c9tats-Unis (29 novembre)<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Indice de pression sur la cha\u00eene d&#039;approvisionnement mondiale (\u00c9tats-Unis) - Novembre<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Inventaires hebdomadaires de gaz naturel de l&#039;EIA aux \u00c9tats-Unis (28 novembre)<\/h2>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>December 4, 2025 \u2014 U.S. equities opened broadly lower on Wednesday, with the S&amp;P 500 down 0.21%. The U.S. dollar index plunged to 98.90, a four-month low. Spot gold surged above $4,220\/oz, while LME copper spiked 2% to $11,375.6\/ton, a fresh all-time high. Bitcoin staged a V-shaped rebound to $93,300. Key Market Moves &amp; Fundamental [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":3311,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"ocean_post_layout":"","ocean_both_sidebars_style":"","ocean_both_sidebars_content_width":0,"ocean_both_sidebars_sidebars_width":0,"ocean_sidebar":"","ocean_second_sidebar":"","ocean_disable_margins":"enable","ocean_add_body_class":"","ocean_shortcode_before_top_bar":"","ocean_shortcode_after_top_bar":"","ocean_shortcode_before_header":"","ocean_shortcode_after_header":"","ocean_has_shortcode":"","ocean_shortcode_after_title":"","ocean_shortcode_before_footer_widgets":"","ocean_shortcode_after_footer_widgets":"","ocean_shortcode_before_footer_bottom":"","ocean_shortcode_after_footer_bottom":"","ocean_display_top_bar":"default","ocean_display_header":"default","ocean_header_style":"","ocean_center_header_left_menu":"","ocean_custom_header_template":"","ocean_custom_logo":0,"ocean_custom_retina_logo":0,"ocean_custom_logo_max_width":0,"ocean_custom_logo_tablet_max_width":0,"ocean_custom_logo_mobile_max_width":0,"ocean_custom_logo_max_height":0,"ocean_custom_logo_tablet_max_height":0,"ocean_custom_logo_mobile_max_height":0,"ocean_header_custom_menu":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_family":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_subset":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_size":0,"ocean_menu_typo_font_size_tablet":0,"ocean_menu_typo_font_size_mobile":0,"ocean_menu_typo_font_size_unit":"px","ocean_menu_typo_font_weight":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_weight_tablet":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_weight_mobile":"","ocean_menu_typo_transform":"","ocean_menu_typo_transform_tablet":"","ocean_menu_typo_transform_mobile":"","ocean_menu_typo_line_height":0,"ocean_menu_typo_line_height_tablet":0,"ocean_menu_typo_line_height_mobile":0,"ocean_menu_typo_line_height_unit":"","ocean_menu_typo_spacing":0,"ocean_menu_typo_spacing_tablet":0,"ocean_menu_typo_spacing_mobile":0,"ocean_menu_typo_spacing_unit":"","ocean_menu_link_color":"","ocean_menu_link_color_hover":"","ocean_menu_link_color_active":"","ocean_menu_link_background":"","ocean_menu_link_hover_background":"","ocean_menu_link_active_background":"","ocean_menu_social_links_bg":"","ocean_menu_social_hover_links_bg":"","ocean_menu_social_links_color":"","ocean_menu_social_hover_links_color":"","ocean_disable_title":"default","ocean_disable_heading":"default","ocean_post_title":"","ocean_post_subheading":"","ocean_post_title_style":"","ocean_post_title_background_color":"","ocean_post_title_background":0,"ocean_post_title_bg_image_position":"","ocean_post_title_bg_image_attachment":"","ocean_post_title_bg_image_repeat":"","ocean_post_title_bg_image_size":"","ocean_post_title_height":0,"ocean_post_title_bg_overlay":0.5,"ocean_post_title_bg_overlay_color":"","ocean_disable_breadcrumbs":"default","ocean_breadcrumbs_color":"","ocean_breadcrumbs_separator_color":"","ocean_breadcrumbs_links_color":"","ocean_breadcrumbs_links_hover_color":"","ocean_display_footer_widgets":"default","ocean_display_footer_bottom":"default","ocean_custom_footer_template":"","ocean_post_oembed":"","ocean_post_self_hosted_media":"","ocean_post_video_embed":"","ocean_link_format":"","ocean_link_format_target":"self","ocean_quote_format":"","ocean_quote_format_link":"post","ocean_gallery_link_images":"on","ocean_gallery_id":[],"footnotes":""},"categories":[8],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3310","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-english-news","entry","has-media"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.amillex.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3310","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.amillex.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.amillex.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.amillex.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.amillex.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3310"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.amillex.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3310\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":3312,"href":"https:\/\/www.amillex.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3310\/revisions\/3312"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.amillex.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/3311"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.amillex.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3310"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.amillex.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3310"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.amillex.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3310"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}