Amillex Daily Market Commentary | Year-End Profit Taking Triggers Metal Volatility and Risk-Asset Retrenchment

December 30, 2025. As year-end trading enters the holiday doldrums, the market’s main theme has shifted to “low volume + short-term profit-taking.” Risk assets experienced a short-term correction following last week’s strength, while the US Dollar Index maintained its range for a fourth consecutive day, suggesting that overall risk appetite has not yet collapsed. Meanwhile, precious metals saw extreme volatility on Monday, witnessing a significant retreat after hitting consecutive highs. This was partially driven by a squeeze resulting from exchanges raising margin requirements and forced liquidations of overextended positions, with thin holiday liquidity amplifying the magnitude of the price swings. The US Dollar Index remains range-bound near 98, as the market’s core focus remains on year-end liquidity, CME margin adjustments, and expectations for the 2026 interest rate trajectory.

Performance du marché et analyse fondamentale par classe d'actifs

1. US Stock Market

Performance de l'indice : The three major US indices edged lower as the market adopted a defensive rhythm. The S&P 500 closed down approximately 0.35%, the Nasdaq fell about 0.46%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped roughly 0.5%. While US stocks remain significantly up for the year, today’s action was characterized by “pre-new year profit-taking.”

Focus sur les actions : Tesla (TSLA) closed down about 3.3% on Monday, erasing approximately $38 billion in market value (estimated by the percentage drop). Drivers included expectations surrounding consumption and delivery data, as well as market sensitivity toward a valuation correction.

2. Marché des changes :

The US Dollar Index (DXY) maintained slight fluctuations around 98.0, generally influenced by the dual factors of “cooling inflation + year-end recovery in risk appetite”;

EUR/USD was quoted in the 1.175 – 1.178 range, with the Euro showing slight strength or consolidation against the Dollar amid limited intraday volatility;

USD/JPY traded in the 156.0 – 156.5 range. The Yen remains relatively weak, but there were no significant sharp moves today. If the Yen continues to face pressure, attention should be paid to Bank of Japan commentary and international capital flows;

GBP/USD stayed near 1.347 – 1.352; the Pound performed relatively steadily, maintaining its monthly range-bound consolidation.

3. Precious Metals and Commodities

Métaux précieux :

Spot gold (XAUUSD) saw a pullback after previously hitting record highs, at one point plunging nearly $250 from its peak—an unusual case of extreme volatility. If exchanges or brokers continue to maintain higher margin standards, short-term volatility may persist.

Spot silver (XAGUSD) saw particularly violent swings, dropping at one point from a historical extreme of approximately $84/oz to $70/oz. Overall, silver’s volatility is supported by fundamentals (tightening mine supply and growing industrial demand, particularly from photovoltaics and data centers) but is also amplified by technical factors and capital-driven effects.

Facteurs déterminants : Market analysts believe that after exchanges like the CME raised margins, leveraged positions were forced to downsize, exacerbating short-term liquidations and price pullbacks. The general assessment is that while precious metals have risen sharply this year, low liquidity and margin adjustments after the holidays pose a risk of high short-term volatility.

Matières premières :

WTI crude oil strengthened in the short term, supported by geopolitical and supply concerns, with prices recovering to around $58, boosting the performance of the energy sector.

4. Today’s Focus