December 4, 2025 — U.S. equities opened broadly lower on Wednesday, with the S&P 500 down 0.21%. The U.S. dollar index plunged to 98.90, a four-month low. Spot gold surged above $4,220/oz, while LME copper spiked 2% to $11,375.6/ton, a fresh all-time high. Bitcoin staged a V-shaped rebound to $93,300.

Key Market Moves & Fundamental Analysis

1. U.S. Equities: Weak Economic Data Suppresses Risk Appetite, Tech Leads Declines

S&P 500 −0.21% to 6,815.29

Dow Jones −0.22% to 47,371.62

Nasdaq −0.42% to 23,315.58

Points saillants du titre :

Microsoft −2.9% on weaker-than-expected AI software demand

Semiconductor stocks broadly under pressure

Core drivers:

Labor market deterioration:

U.S. November ADP employment fell by 32,000 jobs (vs. +10,000 expected), marking the fourth consecutive monthly decline and the worst reading since early 2023.

Rising policy easing expectations:

The probability of a Fed rate cut in December surged to 90%, with Trump reportedly favoring dovish candidate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed Chair.

Institutional view:

Brown Brothers Harriman noted that weakening labor demand and slowing consumption support further Fed easing.

2. FX Market: Dollar Falls to a Four-Month Low, Broad Rally in Non-U.S. Currencies

Dollar Index −0.3% to 98.90

EUR/USD up to 1.1650, GBP/USD breaks above 1.3250

USD/JPY −0.2% to 155.54

Indian rupee weakens to 90.28, a record low

Fundamental interpretation:

Rate-cut logic reinforced:

The weak ADP data intensified economic slowdown concerns. Falling Treasury yields (10-year down to 4.05%) weighed on the dollar.

EM divergence:

Offshore RMB strengthened to 7.0585, a 14-month high, while capital outflows and trade deficits dragged the Indian rupee lower.

3. Precious Metals: Safe-Haven Demand Lifts Gold & Silver, Supply Risks Escalate

Spot gold +0.4% to $4,223.13/oz

Spot silver +0.5% to $58.76/oz

Principaux facteurs moteurs :

Easing expectations:

Rising Fed rate-cut odds reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets, with falling real yields supporting gold.

Structural shortages:

Global silver inventories have dropped to a ten-year low, while booming solar demand intensifies supply anxiety.

Technical outlook:

Gold has decisively broken the key $4,200 resistance, with a short-term target toward $4,250.

4. Commodities: Copper Hits Record High, Oil’s Geopolitical Premium Retreats

Copper Market

LME copper +2% to $11,375.6/ton

Shanghai copper futures break above RMB 90,000/ton

Conducteurs :

Supply disruptions:

Frequent labor strikes in Chile and Peru, with LME registered inventories down to 180,000 tons, a cyclical low.

Tariff avoidance:

Traders are rushing physical copper shipments to the U.S. ahead of potential import tariffs, driving sharp regional spot premiums.

Crude Oil

WTI crude +0.4% to $58.9/barrel

Bull–bear tug-of-war:

Ukraine–Russia ceasefire talks cap geopolitical premiums,

API crude inventories rose by 2.48 million barrels, limiting upside.

5. Crypto Market: Bitcoin Stages V-Shaped Rebound, Liquidation Pressure Eases

Bitcoin rebounded from $91,500 intraday low to $93,300

Ethereum followed higher

Sentiment du marché :

Technical rebound:

Short covering after oversold conditions; derivatives open interest rose 8% day-on-day.

Regulatory overhang:

The U.S. SEC continues to tighten scrutiny on stablecoins, while the PBoC reiterated crackdowns on illegal crypto speculation.

Données sur la chaîne :

Whale wallets added 12,000 BTC over the past week, signaling long-term accumulation.

L'objectif du jour

Switzerland November seasonally adjusted unemployment rate

Eurozone October retail sales (MoM)

U.S. November Challenger job-cut announcements

U.S. weekly initial jobless claims (Nov. 29)

U.S. November Global Supply Chain Pressure Index

U.S. weekly EIA natural gas inventories (Nov. 28)