Amillex Daily Market Commentary | Gold & Oil Locked in an Intense Tug-of-War

March 12, 2026, global financial markets saw sharp volatility today as multiple macro narratives collided. In early Asian trading on Thursday, spot gold hovered around $5,152 per ounce, with bulls and bears locked in a tight standoff.

On one hand, the latest U.S. CPI data released yesterday held steady at 2.4%, suggesting inflation remains relatively stable. However, lingering concerns about potential inflation rebounds have pushed rate expectations slightly higher, helping the U.S. Dollar Index rise about 0.4%, which is putting direct pressure on gold prices.

Meanwhile, escalating tensions involving Iran have triggered a growing shipping security crisis in the Strait of Hormuz. Reports indicate 14 vessels have been attacked, disrupting nearly one-fifth of global oil exports.

The oil market, however, has responded with far more aggressive momentum. U.S. crude oil is currently holding above $93 per barrel, after surging nearly 5% on Wednesday. Supply fears intensified further after Iranian officials warned that the world should be prepared for oil prices reaching $200 per barrel, igniting fresh anxiety over global energy supply. In the short term, runaway energy prices could become a key driver of global inflation expectations.

Market Performance & Fundamental Overview

1. U.S. Stock Market

Performance de l'indice

Indice industriel Dow Jones (DJI)
47,417.27 | -0.61%
Value stocks pulled back amid rising defensive sentiment, bringing the index back below the 47,500 psychological level.
S&P 500 (SP500)
6,727.26 | -0.59%
The index faces resistance above 6,700, with investor risk appetite weakening as inflation expectations fluctuate.
Nasdaq 100 (NQ)
24,759.00 | -0.90%
As a rate-sensitive index, the Nasdaq posted the largest decline, reflecting market concerns about tighter liquidity and the path of long-term interest rates.

Focus sur les actions

Tesla (TSLA)
$407.82 | +2.15%
Despite broader market weakness, Tesla surged against the trend, supported by strong growth expectations and sector optimism, showing notable alpha performance.

2. Marché des changes

Indice du dollar américain (DXY)
99.439 | +0.19%
The dollar regained upward momentum, approaching the 100 level, supported by recent hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve and safe-haven demand amid global uncertainty.
USD/JPY
159.15 | +0.13%
Driven by widening U.S.–Japan yield differentials, the yen remains weak and continues to fluctuate near the 160 niveau.
EUR/USD
1.1543 | -0.20%
The euro remains under pressure from dollar strength and sluggish European growth, repeatedly testing support near 1.15.

3. Métaux précieux et matières premières

Métaux précieux

Or au comptant (XAUUSD)
$5,155.98/oz | -0.40%
Although geopolitical risks remain elevated, stronger USD and persistently high real yields have pushed gold into a sideways consolidation above $5,150.
Argent au comptant (XAGUSD)
$85.535/oz | -0.26%
Volatility in silver has narrowed relative to gold as the market enters a temporary narrative vacuum.

matières premières

Crude Oil (XTIUSD)
$93.22/barrel | +5.45%
Oil prices staged a strong rebound driven by Middle East supply risks and rising geopolitical premiums, making energy the primary inflation driver in today’s macro landscape.

4. Crypto Market & Macro Developments

Bitcoin (BTCUSD)
$70,199 | 0.00%
Bitcoin is trading in an extremely tight range near the $70,000 psychological level, reflecting a cautious standoff between bulls and bears amid the current interest-rate environment.
Ethereum (ETHUSD)
$2,053.1 | +0.01%
ETH continues to underperform traditional hard assets and the broader market, with investor confidence awaiting further catalysts from ecosystem developments or liquidity shifts.

5. Le thème du jour