October 27, 2025 – Global markets swung sharply last week under the combined influence of economic data, monetary policy, and geopolitical tensions. Spot gold suffered its largest one-day drop in ten years after reaching a record high, ending the week down 3.17%. U.S. equities, meanwhile, surged to new highs as softer CPI data strengthened expectations for rate cuts. WTI crude oil jumped 7% for the week, and the U.S. dollar index fluctuated around the 99 level. The market narrative was dominated by the tug-of-war between the Fed’s rate-cut trajectory and escalating Russia-Ukraine tensions.

Precious Metals: Gold Posts Largest Drop in a Decade, Long-Term Bullish Case Intact

Spot gold hit an all-time high of $4,381 on Monday before plunging more than 5% on Tuesday, ending the week at $4,112, marking its first weekly loss in ten weeks.

Spot silver fell 6.07% to $48.59.

Facteurs fondamentaux :

Technical selloff: Citigroup noted that gold had been overbought for weeks, and the rapid rise triggered profit-taking.

Mixed data and policy signals: The U.S. September CPI came in lower than expected (core CPI up 3% YoY), fueling rate-cut bets, but easing geopolitical risks (stalled Russia-Ukraine peace talks) dampened safe-haven demand.

Long-term support remains: Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan maintain bullish targets of $4,900 and $5,000, respectively, citing ongoing central bank gold purchases and the de-dollarization trend.

U.S. Stock Market: CPI Sparks Rate-Cut Hopes, S&P and Nasdaq Hit Record Highs

The S&P 500 rose 1.8%, the Nasdaq gained 2.1%, and the Dow Jones added 1.6%, all closing at record highs.

Apple’s market capitalization approached $4 trillion, while Tesla fell 5% for the week after missing profit expectations.

Principaux facteurs moteurs :

Dovish CPI: Core CPI rose 3% YoY, below estimates, leading markets to fully price in a 25-basis-point rate cut at the Fed’s October meeting.

Earnings divergence: Energy stocks rallied on soaring oil prices, while resilient tech earnings—such as a 14% rise in iPhone sales—helped support indices.

Commodities: Oil Sees Biggest Weekly Gain in Three Months as Geopolitical Premium Returns

WTI crude surged 7.2% for the week to close at $61.5/barrel.

Drivers: U.S. sanctions on Russian oil companies Rosneft and Lukoil raised fears of supply disruption, while U.S. strategic reserve replenishment added to demand.

Base metals: Copper prices were volatile amid concerns that renewed trade tensions could weigh on industrial demand.

FX & Bonds: Dollar Stuck Around 99, Treasury Yields Retreat

The U.S. dollar index ended at 98.94, capped by the softer CPI data.

10-year Treasury yields fell to 3.95%, as heightened rate-cut expectations spurred bond buying.

In FX markets, the yen weakened to 150.5 after Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi signaled plans for an expansionary fiscal package, putting further pressure on the currency.

Cryptocurrencies: Trump Pardons Binance Founder, Regulatory Pressure Eases

Bitcoin rose 1.2% for the week, with Ethereum following suit.

Policy boost: Former President Trump granted a pardon to Binance founder Changpeng Zhao, ending the “crypto crackdown” and prompting the dismissal of lawsuits against firms like Coinbase.

This Week’s Key Events: “Super Central Bank Week”

U.S. Federal Reserve – interest rate decision

European Central Bank – interest rate decision

Bank of Japan – policy decision & economic outlook report

Bank of Canada – rate decision and monetary policy report