December 2, 2025 — U.S. equity futures fell across the board on Monday, with Nasdaq futures down 0.9%. USD/JPY tumbled 0.7% to 155.06. Spot silver surged above $57/oz to a new all-time high. Bitcoin plunged 6%, falling below $86,000. Crude oil gained more than 2%.

الف. حرکات کلیدی بازار و تحلیل بنیادی

1. U.S. Equities: Tech Leads Declines as a Data Vacuum Amplifies Volatility

S&P 500 futures –0.7%, Nasdaq 100 futures –0.9%, Dow futures also lower.

Pre-market moves: Nvidia –1%+, Tesla, Google, and Apple down nearly 1%.

رانندگان:

Cluster of risk events:

Former President Trump said he has chosen the next Fed Chair (rumored to be Kevin Hassett), raising policy uncertainty.

Caution ahead of key data:

Markets are awaiting ISM Manufacturing PMI (Dec 1) and nonfarm payrolls. Risk-off sentiment is weighing on valuations.

2. FX Market: Yen Posts Biggest Rise in Seven Weeks as BOJ Rate-Hike Bets Jump

USD/JPY dropped 0.7% to 155.06, the biggest one-day decline since October 10.

Dollar index edged up 0.12% to 99.44; EUR/USD flat at 1.1601.

پیشینه سیاستگذاری:

BOJ pivot: Governor Kazuo Ueda said the Bank will “weigh the pros and cons of a rate hike,” pushing December rate-hike odds to 64%.

Narrowing U.S.–Japan yield gap: Japan’s 20-year JGB yield jumped to 2.88%, the highest since 1999, dampening carry trades.

3. Precious Metals & Commodities: Silver Hits Record High; Oil Rebalances on Supply Signals

Silver:

Spot silver +1% to $57/oz; COMEX silver futures soared 6.06%.

پویایی عرضه و تقاضا:

Surging solar-PV demand plus global inventories at decade lows; leasing rates spiking reflect severe tightness in physical supply.

Gold & Crude:

Spot gold steadied at $4,241 amid expectations of declining real rates.

Brent crude +2% to $63.80/bbl as OPEC+ confirmed suspension of production increases in Q1.

فلزات صنعتی:

COMEX copper +1% to $532.55/lb, supported by China’s manufacturing PMI rebounding to 49.2%, improving demand expectations.

4. Crypto: Bitcoin Plunges 6% as Long Leverage Unwinds

Bitcoin –5.4% to $86,214; Ethereum –6.5% to $2,825.

Pressure points:

Regulatory tightening:

PBoC reiterated crackdowns on illegal crypto-related financial activities; U.S. SEC intensified scrutiny of stablecoins.

On-chain stress:

Total weekly liquidations exceeded $12 billion, amplifying panic selling.

5. Bond Market: JGB Yields Surge; U.S. Curve Steepens

Japan: 10-year JGB yield rose 7 bps to 1.87%; 2-year JGB yield hit a new high since 2008.

U.S.: 10-year Treasury yield rose 2.7 bps to 4.046%, with rate-hike expectations weighing on bonds.

تمرکز امروز

Fed Chair Jerome Powell speech

Global PMI releases:

U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI for November — a print below 48.0 would reinforce the rate-cut narrative.

Eurozone Manufacturing PMI final print — watch divergence between Germany and France.

China liquidity operations:

CNY 302.1 billion in 7-day reverse repos maturing today; markets to monitor PBOC’s operation rhythm.