November 25, 2025 — U.S. equities opened sharply higher across the board, with the Nasdaq gaining nearly 1.8%. The dollar index stabilized, the yen weakened to 156.68, spot gold edged down to $4,055, and Bitcoin extended its downturn below $87,000, posting its worst monthly decline since 2022. Market dynamics continue to revolve around the tug-of-war between “policy easing trades” and “deleveraging in high-volatility assets.”

I. Key Market Moves & Fundamental Analysis

1. U.S. Equities: Tech and China ADRs Lead Gains; Rate-Cut Probability Rebounds to 60%

S&P 500 rose nearly 1%, Dow gained 0.34%, Nasdaq surged 1.8%.

The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index jumped 2.41%, outperforming broader markets.

Sector highlights: Semiconductors (Nvidia flat), AI stocks (Alphabet A +5.6%) led gains; Tesla rallied over 6%.

Fed dovish tone: New York Fed President Williams said “near-term rate cuts remain possible”; Goldman Sachs expects the third rate cut to begin in December.

China ADR catalysts: Alibaba’s Qianwen app surpassed 10 million downloads, pushing the stock up more than 5%.

2. FX Market: Yen Weakens to 156.68, European Fiscal Risks Re-Emerge

The dollar index was flat, while the yen depreciated to 156.68 per dollar, nearing the psychological intervention threshold.

EUR and GBP fluctuated amid renewed concerns over fiscal sustainability following France’s budget veto.

پیشینه سیاستگذاری:

U.S.–Japan divergence: Rising U.S. rate-cut expectations contrast with the BOJ’s persistently ultra-loose stance.

Europe risk: The UK may announce tax hikes in Wednesday’s budget; Italy’s rating upgrade offered limited support.

3. Precious Metals: Gold Edges Down to $4,055, Pressured by Dollar & Rates

Spot gold dipped 0.2% to $4,055.88/oz.

Short-term pressures: Dollar resilience and higher Treasury yields reduced safe-haven appeal.

Technical levels: Daily pivot sits at $4,063; a breakdown could open room toward $3,946.

4. Energy: Oil Market Finds Balance; Geopolitical Risks Offer Mild Support

WTI crude rose 0.2% to $58.19/bbl.

رانندگان:

Supportive: Uncertainty around Russia–Ukraine peace talks (the U.S. 28-point plan was rejected) raised concerns about potential supply disruptions.

Headwinds: Rising EIA inventories and weakening OPEC+ compliance capped upside.

5. Crypto: Bitcoin Posts Worst Monthly Drop in Three Years; Liquidations Continue

Bitcoin fell 1.3% to $86,807; Ethereum slipped 0.9%.

احساسات بازار:

Technical breakdown: $85,200 serves as key support; a breach could trigger quant-driven selling.

Regulatory pressure: U.S. SEC tightening scrutiny on stablecoins; PBoC reiterated a crackdown on speculative activity.

6. Asia-Pacific & Bonds: Indonesia Hits Record High; U.S. Yields Decline

APAC equities: Indonesia’s benchmark index rose 1% to a record 8,499.72; Japanese and Korean stocks diverged.

Bond market: Rising U.S. rate-cut expectations pulled the 10-year Treasury yield lower, easing immediate safe-haven demand.

II. Today’s focus

U.S. September PPI data

Huawei All-Scenario Product Launch Event

Earnings: Alibaba, NIO