Amillex Daily Market Commentary | Sudden Shift in U.S.–Venezuela Situation Triggers Safe-Haven Buying, Gold and Oil Surge on Geopolitical Drivers

Global markets opened the week of January 5, 2026 in risk-off mode after reports of sudden U.S. military action in Venezuela. News that U.S. Delta Force troops captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro over the weekend triggered a sharp safe-haven bid. Gold gapped higher and held firmly above $4,300/oz, while WTI crude rebounded from recent lows, testing the $58.0/bbl level as geopolitical risk added a fresh premium despite rising global inventories.

Key Event in Focus: U.S. Military Captures Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro

On January 3, 2026, U.S. President Trump confirmed that Delta Force units carried out a late-night operation in Caracas, capturing President Nicolás Maduro and his wife. They were transferred to the USS Iwo Jima and flown to New York, where U.S. Attorney General Pam Bondi stated Maduro faces charges including narco-terrorism conspiracy and large-scale cocaine trafficking in the Southern District of New York.

Multi-Asset Market Performance and Fundamental Analysis

1. U.S. Equity Markets

عملکرد شاخص:

Dow Jones Industrial Average: Broke above the 48,300.00 level, last at 48,297.53, up 0.49% on the day.
S&P 500 Index: Down 0.42% to 6,832, currently testing technical support near the 6,800 psychological level.
Nasdaq Composite: Closed down 0.03% at 25,244, after rising more than $1 in early trading before pulling back amid volatility.

Equity Focus: Tesla (TSLA): Down 2.59%. 2025 deliveries totaled 1.636 million vehicles, down approximately $8.6% year-on-year. This marks the first time in its history that Tesla was overtaken in annual sales by China’s BYD, with more than USD 38 billion erased from its market capitalization in a single session.

2. FX Markets: U.S. Dollar Consolidates, Euro Faces Mild Pressure

U.S. Dollar Index (DXY): Holding near the 98.4 level. Volatility remained limited on the first trading day after the holiday, with the dollar staying firm and continuing to act as a core suppressing force on commodities.
EUR/USD: Broke below the 1.1720 level and is currently oscillating within the 1.1680–1.1720 range, as weak European growth momentum limits upside potential for the euro.
USD/JPY: Holding at elevated levels around 156.50. The pace of monetary policy normalization by the Bank of Japan continues to lag market expectations.

Driving Logic: “Stronger dollar + yield differential” remains the dominant theme at the start of the year. As expectations for a soft landing in the U.S. economy strengthen, the dollar’s appeal as a reserve asset continues to weigh on European and commodity-linked currencies.

3. Precious Metals and Commodities

Spot Gold (XAUUSD): Pulled back after a brief surge, currently quoted around $4,375/oz. Although institutions such as Goldman Sachs forecast gold challenging $5,000 by the end of 2026, prices remain capped in the short term by strong resistance near $4,400.
Spot Silver (XAGUSD): Volatility has intensified, trading around $72.50/oz. Weighed down by lagging industrial demand recovery, silver has entered a high-level consolidation and correction phase after surging 147% in 2025.

کالاها

WTI Crude Oil: Trading at $57.80 per barrel. Prices remain range-bound between $56 and $60, primarily pressured by OPEC+ production increase expectations and rising global inventories. Without strong demand-side data, a near-term breakout appears unlikely.

Crypto Assets

Bitcoin (BTC): Broke above the key $90,000 level, displaying characteristics of high-level sideways consolidation.
Ethereum (ETH): Significantly underperforming the broader market, trading around $3,110. Prices have fallen below the lower bound of the previous consolidation range and are now retracing to test the critical psychological support zone between $3,000 and $3,100.

4. Today’s Focus