December 5, 2025 — U.S. equity markets opened broadly higher on Thursday, with the Nasdaq up 0.31%. Japan’s Nikkei 225 surged 2.33% to 51,028, hitting a new high for the year. The U.S. dollar index hovered near the 99 level as the yen strengthened intraday. Spot silver plunged 3% to $56.72/oz, while LME copper slid nearly 1% on a technical pullback.

حرکات کلیدی بازار و تحلیل بنیادی

1. U.S. Equities: Tech Leads Gains, Meta Jumps 5.7% on Earnings Optimism

S&P 500 +0.24% to 6,866.47

Dow Jones +0.01%

Nasdaq +0.31% to 23,527

عملکرد بخش:

Financials ETF +0.53%

Energy ETF +0.27%

Semiconductor ETF −0.54%

نکات برجسته سهام:

Meta Platforms +5.7%: Market rumors suggest Meta plans to cut its metaverse budget by 30% and refocus spending on AI, significantly lifting profit expectations.

Snowflake −9.7%: Valuations were hit by growing concerns over slowing cloud demand.

Core drivers:

Jobless claims beat expectations:

Weekly initial jobless claims fell to 191,000, the lowest level in three years. However, weak ADP employment data keeps the probability of a December Fed rate cut above 90%.

Loose liquidity expectations:

Interest-rate swap pricing suggests traders see a 25-bps rate cut in December as virtually fully priced in.

2. Asia-Pacific Markets: Japanese Stocks Lead Global Rally, JGB Yields Pull Back After Hitting Record Highs

Nikkei 225 +2.33%

TOPIX +1.9%

30-year JGB yield spiked to 3.445%, the highest since 1999

پیشینه سیاستگذاری:

The probability of a BoJ rate hike in December has risen to 70%.

The latest 30-year JGB auction recorded a bid-to-cover ratio of 4.04, the strongest since 2019.

Capital flows:

The yen rallied intraday as easing fiscal concerns in Japan attracted foreign inflows into Japanese equities.

The Indian rupee weakened to 90.4175, a record low, as prolonged trade-deal deadlock triggered capital outflows.

3. Precious Metals & Commodities: Silver Pulls Back from Highs, Oil’s Geopolitical Premium Rises

Spot silver −3% to $56.72/oz

Spot gold −0.2% to $4,194/oz

Technical interpretation:

Overbought RSI readings triggered profit-taking in silver, although booming photovoltaic demand continues to support the long-term supply deficit.

نفت خام:

WTI crude +0.3% to $59.33/barrel

Supply–demand tug-of-war:

U.S. EIA crude inventories rose by 574,000 barrels (vs. expectations for an 800,000-barrel draw).

However, the EU’s commitment to extend its Russian oil ban through 2027 has revived longer-term supply concerns.

فلزات صنعتی:

LME copper −1% to $11,377/ton

The pullback is seen as technical after the recent sharp rally, while the low-inventory backdrop remains unchanged.

4. Crypto & Bond Markets: Bitcoin Softens, U.S. Yield Curve Steepens

Bitcoin −0.7% to $93,075

Ethereum +0.6%, outperforming the broader market

Regulatory pressure:

The U.S. SEC continues to tighten scrutiny of stablecoins, while the PBoC reiterated its crackdown on illegal crypto trading.

Bond market:

The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose 2 bps to 4.08%, as stronger jobless claims data temporarily eased safe-haven demand.

تمرکز امروز

U.S. September Core PCE Price Index

Market expectation: 2.8% YoY

A reading below 2.7% could lock in a December Fed rate cut.

Eurozone Q3 GDP (final reading)

Canada Employment Report

If the unemployment rate rises above 5.5%, the Canadian dollar may come under pressure.