Amillex Daily Market Commentary: Fed Rate-Cut Expectations Collapse and Trigger Cross-Asset Turbulence; Nvidia’s Strong Earnings Fail to Prevent Nasdaq’s 2.7% Weekly Drop; Dollar Breaks Above 100, Gold Under Pressure, and Japanese Bond Yields Surge to a 17-Year High

November 24, 2025 — Last week, the U.S. dollar index broke above the 100 mark to a six-month high; spot gold fell below $4,060, down 0.47% on the week; the Nasdaq tumbled 2.74%; Bitcoin plunged below $83,000, marking an 18% weekly drop; Japan’s 10-year bond yield spiked to 1.825%, the highest since 2008.

I. Weekly Performance Across Asset Classes & Key Fundamentals

1. FX Market: Dollar Regains Dominance, Yen Slides to 155 Near Intervention Line

Dollar Index: +0.91% for the week to 100.17, rising for a fourth straight week and hitting a six-month high.

Yen: Weakened to 155.37 against the dollar (lowest since February), and fell past 180 against the euro to a record low.

رانندگان:

Fed Hawkish Shift: Governors Harker and Goolsbee opposed a December rate cut; futures pricing now places the odds below 50%.

Japan Fiscal Panic: The government’s proposed ¥21.3 trillion stimulus package triggered a sharp JGB sell-off.

2. Precious Metals: Gold’s Safe-Haven Appeal Weakens amid Strong Dollar & Rising Real Rates

Spot gold fell 0.47% to $4,065, with intraday swings exceeding $100.

Pressures: Stronger USD + diminished rate-cut expectations.

Potential Support: Escalation of Russia–Ukraine tensions (Ukraine rejected the U.S. 28-point peace plan) and Middle East unrest.

3. Equities: Nasdaq Leads Global Declines; Nvidia’s Strong Earnings Fail to Stop Tech Sell-Off

U.S. indices: Dow −1.91%, S&P 500 −1.95%, Nasdaq −2.74%.

Sector trends: Energy stocks showed relative resilience; semiconductors (Nvidia −3.4% weekly) and AI names led declines.

Core contradictions:

Nvidia’s Q3 revenue of $57B beat expectations, but markets worry about AI demand sustainability heading into 2026.

Rotation theme: Morgan Stanley noted cyclicals began to replace growth stocks, with defensive sectors gaining favor.

4. Commodities: Oil Market Weakens, Agriculture Diverges

WTI crude: −3.2% on the week to $58.2; Brent also declined.

عوامل نزولی:

Oversupply: Falling OPEC+ compliance and a 2.4M-barrel U.S. inventory build (above expectations).

Weak demand: Global manufacturing PMIs remain subdued.

Agriculture: Soymeal fell on South American supply pressure; corn edged higher on weather speculation.

5. Crypto: Bitcoin Plunges 18% Weekly, Leverage Flush-Out Returns

Bitcoin slid 18% to $83,000; Ethereum also declined.

On-chain: Weekly liquidations exceeded $12B, with ETFs seeing accelerating outflows.

Regulatory headwinds: U.S. SEC intensified stablecoin scrutiny; PBoC reiterated crackdown on crypto speculation.

6. Bonds: Japan Yields Hit 17-Year High; U.S. Curve Steepens

Japan 10-year JGB: Surged to 1.825%, the highest since June 2008.

U.S. Treasuries: 2-year yield rose to 4.13%, with conflicting nonfarm data driving volatility.

Europe: German 10-year yields moved higher as ECB’s wait-and-see stance limited a rebound.

II. In-Depth Analysis of Key Events & Policy Backdrop

1. Fed Internal Divisions Reach Boiling Point

Hawks: Cleveland Fed’s Harker warned of “sticky inflation”; Chicago Fed’s Goolsbee opposed a December rate cut.

Doves: New York Fed’s Williams said “near-term rate cuts are possible,” while Governor Milan supported faster easing.

Data blackout risk: With October CPI and NFP delayed, the December FOMC meeting will lack key inputs.

2. Geopolitical Risks Intensify Simultaneously

Russia–Ukraine: The U.S. 28-point peace proposal required Ukraine to cede territory and demilitarize; Zelensky rejected it.

Middle East: Israeli airstrikes in Gaza left over 100 casualties; Hamas accused Israel of violating the ceasefire.

Latin America: Trump threatened military action against Venezuela, triggering a sharp sell-off in the Mexican peso.

3. Structural Stress in Asian Markets

Japan’s “triple shock” in stocks, bonds, and FX: Fiscal stimulus expectations fueled JGB selling, yen carry trade unwinding intensified pressure.

China policy support: Reports indicate more than 60 market-supporting announcements in Shanghai, strengthening policy-put expectations.

III. Key Events to Watch in the Coming Week

U.S. PCE inflation

Fed Beige Book

Watch references to “labor market cooling” and “slowing wage growth,” which may revive rate-cut expectations

China November PMI

Fed speakers:

New York Fed’s Williams will be the key voice shaping expectations for a December rate cut

بانک‌های مرکزی:

RBNZ expected to cut rates by 25 bps; Bank of Korea likely to hold

Trump’s AI Policy:

Details of the “Genesis Plan” may lift domestic AI-infrastructure themes

محصولات CFD

پلتفرم‌ها

حساب‌های معاملاتی

قیمت‌گذاری

قیمت‌گذاری

تحلیل

درباره

قانونی

تبلیغات

همکاری با آمیلکس

I. Weekly Performance Across Asset Classes & Key Fundamentals

1. FX Market: Dollar Regains Dominance, Yen Slides to 155 Near Intervention Line

Dollar Index: +0.91% for the week to 100.17, rising for a fourth straight week and hitting a six-month high.

Yen: Weakened to 155.37 against the dollar (lowest since February), and fell past 180 against the euro to a record low.

رانندگان:

Fed Hawkish Shift: Governors Harker and Goolsbee opposed a December rate cut; futures pricing now places the odds below 50%.

Japan Fiscal Panic: The government’s proposed ¥21.3 trillion stimulus package triggered a sharp JGB sell-off.

2. Precious Metals: Gold’s Safe-Haven Appeal Weakens amid Strong Dollar & Rising Real Rates

Spot gold fell 0.47% to $4,065, with intraday swings exceeding $100.

Pressures: Stronger USD + diminished rate-cut expectations.

Potential Support: Escalation of Russia–Ukraine tensions (Ukraine rejected the U.S. 28-point peace plan) and Middle East unrest.

3. Equities: Nasdaq Leads Global Declines; Nvidia’s Strong Earnings Fail to Stop Tech Sell-Off

U.S. indices: Dow −1.91%, S&P 500 −1.95%, Nasdaq −2.74%.

Sector trends: Energy stocks showed relative resilience; semiconductors (Nvidia −3.4% weekly) and AI names led declines.

Core contradictions:

Nvidia’s Q3 revenue of $57B beat expectations, but markets worry about AI demand sustainability heading into 2026.

Rotation theme: Morgan Stanley noted cyclicals began to replace growth stocks, with defensive sectors gaining favor.

4. Commodities: Oil Market Weakens, Agriculture Diverges

WTI crude: −3.2% on the week to $58.2; Brent also declined.

عوامل نزولی:

Oversupply: Falling OPEC+ compliance and a 2.4M-barrel U.S. inventory build (above expectations).

Weak demand: Global manufacturing PMIs remain subdued.

Agriculture: Soymeal fell on South American supply pressure; corn edged higher on weather speculation.

5. Crypto: Bitcoin Plunges 18% Weekly, Leverage Flush-Out Returns

Bitcoin slid 18% to $83,000; Ethereum also declined.

On-chain: Weekly liquidations exceeded $12B, with ETFs seeing accelerating outflows.

Regulatory headwinds: U.S. SEC intensified stablecoin scrutiny; PBoC reiterated crackdown on crypto speculation.

6. Bonds: Japan Yields Hit 17-Year High; U.S. Curve Steepens

Japan 10-year JGB: Surged to 1.825%, the highest since June 2008.

U.S. Treasuries: 2-year yield rose to 4.13%, with conflicting nonfarm data driving volatility.

Europe: German 10-year yields moved higher as ECB’s wait-and-see stance limited a rebound.

II. In-Depth Analysis of Key Events & Policy Backdrop

1. Fed Internal Divisions Reach Boiling Point

Hawks: Cleveland Fed’s Harker warned of “sticky inflation”; Chicago Fed’s Goolsbee opposed a December rate cut.

Doves: New York Fed’s Williams said “near-term rate cuts are possible,” while Governor Milan supported faster easing.

Data blackout risk: With October CPI and NFP delayed, the December FOMC meeting will lack key inputs.

2. Geopolitical Risks Intensify Simultaneously

Russia–Ukraine: The U.S. 28-point peace proposal required Ukraine to cede territory and demilitarize; Zelensky rejected it.

Middle East: Israeli airstrikes in Gaza left over 100 casualties; Hamas accused Israel of violating the ceasefire.

Latin America: Trump threatened military action against Venezuela, triggering a sharp sell-off in the Mexican peso.

3. Structural Stress in Asian Markets

Japan’s “triple shock” in stocks, bonds, and FX: Fiscal stimulus expectations fueled JGB selling, yen carry trade unwinding intensified pressure.

China policy support: Reports indicate more than 60 market-supporting announcements in Shanghai, strengthening policy-put expectations.

III. Key Events to Watch in the Coming Week

U.S. PCE inflation

Fed Beige Book

Watch references to “labor market cooling” and “slowing wage growth,” which may revive rate-cut expectations

China November PMI

Fed speakers:

New York Fed’s Williams will be the key voice shaping expectations for a December rate cut

بانک‌های مرکزی:

RBNZ expected to cut rates by 25 bps; Bank of Korea likely to hold

Trump’s AI Policy:

Details of the “Genesis Plan” may lift domestic AI-infrastructure themes

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