November 12, 2025 — U.S. equities were mixed on Monday, with the Nasdaq falling 0.85%, the S&P 500 down 0.34%, and the Dow edging up 0.03%. Spot gold slipped below the $4,100 mark, down over 0.4% intraday; Bitcoin dropped more than 1% to $105,000. The U.S. dollar index weakened slightly, while crude oil rose over 1%. Investors remain caught between “valuation correction” pressures and optimism over “policy clarity” as the U.S. government shutdown nears its end.

U.S. Equities: Tech Stocks Lead Decline, Energy and Financials Outperform

Nasdaq −0.85%; S&P 500 −0.34%; Dow Jones +0.03%

Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index +0.6%

Sector performance: Semiconductor ETF −0.94%, Technology ETF −0.62%; Energy ETF +0.94%, Banking ETF +0.47%

Stock highlights:

NVIDIA (−3.47%) – SoftBank Group sold its entire stake, triggering broad AI-related stock sell-offs.

CoreWeave (−13%) – Cut its full-year revenue guidance; Mizuho Securities lowered its target price to $120.

Meta (−1.67%) – Reports surfaced that Chief AI Scientist Yann LeCun plans to leave and start his own company.

محرک‌های کلیدی:

Valuation concerns: After sustained rallies, profit-taking hit tech stocks, while weaker ADP employment data raised doubts over earnings resilience.

Policy outlook: With the U.S. government shutdown now lasting 41 days and nearing resolution, the return of economic data releases could recalibrate expectations for a December Fed rate cut (current probability: 66%).

Commodities: Gold Dips Below $4,100; Oil Holds Near $60

Spot gold fell 0.4% to $4,102, briefly breaking below the $4,100 threshold.

Spot silver down 0.3% to $50.32.

Market context: Rising volatility in risk assets curbed safe-haven demand, though central bank gold buying—led by China’s 12th consecutive month of accumulation—continues to offer long-term support.

Oil market:

WTI crude rose 1% to $60.78.

API and EIA inventory reports delayed to Nov 13–14 due to the holiday.

Fundamentals: Market remains balanced between improved OPEC+ compliance on production cuts and sluggish demand recovery; government reopening could lift short-term consumption expectations.

FX and Crypto: Dollar Slightly Weaker; Bitcoin Extends Pullback

U.S. Dollar Index down 0.21% to 99.36; EUR/USD steady at 1.1560.

Cryptos: Bitcoin −1.15% to $105,200; Ethereum −1.31% to $3,562.

Global Markets: Europe Outperforms, Asia Mixed

Europe: STOXX 50 +0.25%; FTSE 100 +0.89%, hitting a record high.

Asia-Pacific: Nikkei 225 −0.14%; KOSPI +0.8%.

Sentiment: European cyclical stocks benefited from improving economic outlooks, while Asian investors focused on signs of easing U.S.–China tensions.

تمرکز امروز

U.S. October CPI data

U.S. government reopening progress: If the shutdown officially ends, backlogged data such as Nonfarm Payrolls and Retail Sales will be released in quick succession.

OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report: Any downward revision to output targets could support oil prices.

China’s October financial data (TSF, M2): Faster credit growth could ease concerns over an economic slowdown.

ECB Economic Bulletin: A tone suggesting inflation is under control may dampen expectations for further rate hikes this year.