{"id":3817,"date":"2026-02-04T15:37:33","date_gmt":"2026-02-04T04:37:33","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.amillex.com\/?p=3817"},"modified":"2026-02-04T15:37:35","modified_gmt":"2026-02-04T04:37:35","slug":"amillex-daily-market-commentary-political-uncertainty-fuels-gold-rebound-above-4900","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.amillex.com\/es\/2026\/02\/04\/amillex-daily-market-commentary-political-uncertainty-fuels-gold-rebound-above-4900\/","title":{"rendered":"Comentario diario de mercado de Amillex | La incertidumbre pol\u00edtica impulsa el repunte del oro por encima de los 4900\u00a0"},"content":{"rendered":"<p class=\"has-black-color has-text-color has-link-color wp-elements-1 wp-block-paragraph\" style=\"font-size:18px\">El 4 de febrero de 2026, los mercados financieros mundiales volvieron a sufrir una fuerte volatilidad tras un nombramiento de gran peso por parte de la administraci\u00f3n Trump. Con la nominaci\u00f3n de Kevin Warsh, de tendencia m\u00e1s restrictiva, para suceder a Jerome Powell, quien pronto dejar\u00eda el cargo, la confianza del mercado en la futura pol\u00edtica de la Reserva Federal se vio afectada.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-black-color has-text-color has-link-color wp-elements-2 wp-block-paragraph\" style=\"font-size:18px\">A pesar de que el PMI manufacturero de EE. UU. de enero repunt\u00f3 hasta 52,6, el nivel m\u00e1s alto en casi tres a\u00f1os y medio, lo que pone de manifiesto la resiliencia y la expansi\u00f3n de la demanda interna, el \u00edndice del d\u00f3lar estadounidense cay\u00f3 parad\u00f3jicamente 0,12% hasta 97,42 el martes, interrumpiendo su anterior repunte de 1,5%.&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-black-color has-text-color has-link-color wp-elements-3 wp-block-paragraph\" style=\"font-size:18px\">Impulsado por esta incertidumbre, el oro al contado experiment\u00f3 una espectacular recuperaci\u00f3n el martes, dispar\u00e1ndose m\u00e1s de 6% durante la jornada, lo que representa su mayor ganancia en un solo d\u00eda desde la crisis financiera de 2008. Durante la sesi\u00f3n asi\u00e1tica, los precios del oro se estabilizaron cerca de los 4974 USD, gracias a la combinaci\u00f3n de s\u00f3lidos fundamentos y la cobertura de posiciones cortas provocada por el llamado &quot;shock de Warsh&quot;.\u201c&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:50px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center has-black-color has-text-color has-link-color wp-elements-4 wp-block-paragraph\" style=\"font-size:20px\"><strong>Rendimiento del mercado de activos y an\u00e1lisis fundamental<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-black-color has-text-color has-link-color wp-elements-5 wp-block-paragraph\" style=\"font-size:18px\"><strong>1. Mercados de renta variable de EE. UU.<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-black-color has-text-color has-link-color wp-elements-6 wp-block-paragraph\" style=\"font-size:18px\"><strong>Rendimiento del \u00edndice<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li class=\"has-black-color has-text-color has-link-color wp-elements-7\" style=\"font-size:18px\"><strong>Promedio Industrial Dow Jones (DJI):\u00a0<\/strong>Cerrado a las\u00a0<strong>49.240,99<\/strong>, abajo\u00a0<strong>167,42 puntos<\/strong>\u00a0o\u00a0<strong>0,34%<\/strong>. Mientras el mercado se mantiene justo por debajo del nivel psicol\u00f3gico\u00a0<strong>50.000 puntos<\/strong>\u00a0Tras superarse el umbral establecido, la presi\u00f3n vendedora sobre las acciones de gran capitalizaci\u00f3n se intensific\u00f3 en medio de la creciente incertidumbre en torno a la nominaci\u00f3n del presidente de la Reserva Federal.\u00a0<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"has-black-color has-text-color has-link-color wp-elements-8\" style=\"font-size:18px\"><strong>\u00cdndice S&amp;P 500 (SP500):\u00a0<\/strong>Cerrado a las\u00a0<strong>6.918,08<\/strong>, ligeramente a la baja\u00a0<strong>0,01%<\/strong>. Mientras el \u00edndice se mantuvo por encima del\u00a0<strong>6.900<\/strong>\u00a0A pesar del nivel de rentabilidad, la toma de beneficios en las acciones tecnol\u00f3gicas se vio compensada sutilmente por las entradas de capital en los sectores defensivos.\u00a0<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"has-black-color has-text-color has-link-color wp-elements-9\" style=\"font-size:18px\"><strong>\u00cdndice Nasdaq 100 (NQ1):\u00a0<\/strong>Cerrado a las\u00a0<strong>25.432,00<\/strong>, abajo\u00a0<strong>0,08%<\/strong>. Las posiciones que antes estaban saturadas en acciones de IA y semiconductores se enfrentan a presiones t\u00e9cnicas en medio de una reciente ola de desapalancamiento.\u00a0<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-black-color has-text-color has-link-color wp-elements-10 wp-block-paragraph\" style=\"font-size:18px\"><strong>Aspecto destacado de las acciones<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li class=\"has-black-color has-text-color has-link-color wp-elements-11\" style=\"font-size:18px\"><strong>Intel (INTC):\u00a0<\/strong>Cerrado a las\u00a0<strong>49,25 USD<\/strong>, arriba\u00a0<strong>0,90%<\/strong>. El respaldo del segmento de memorias y los fundamentos impulsados por la recuperaci\u00f3n ayudaron a que la acci\u00f3n superara al mercado en general.\u00a0<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:40px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-black-color has-text-color has-link-color wp-elements-12 wp-block-paragraph\" style=\"font-size:18px\"><strong>2. Mercado de divisas<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li class=\"has-black-color has-text-color has-link-color wp-elements-13\" style=\"font-size:18px\"><strong>\u00cdndice del d\u00f3lar estadounidense (DXY):\u00a0<\/strong>En\u00a0<strong>97.381<\/strong>, abajo\u00a0<strong>0,23%<\/strong>. Tras la nominaci\u00f3n de Kevin Warsh como presidente de la Reserva Federal, las expectativas en torno a su posible postura pol\u00edtica de &quot;reducci\u00f3n del balance y recortes de tipos de inter\u00e9s&quot; han llevado a una reevaluaci\u00f3n de la liquidez del d\u00f3lar, lo que ejerce presi\u00f3n a corto plazo sobre el billete verde.\u00a0<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"has-black-color has-text-color has-link-color wp-elements-14\" style=\"font-size:18px\"><strong>EUR\/USD:\u00a0<\/strong>En\u00a0<strong>1.1814<\/strong>, abajo\u00a0<strong>0,02%<\/strong>. A pesar de la debilidad del d\u00f3lar, las moderadas expectativas de inflaci\u00f3n en la eurozona limitaron el alza del euro.\u00a0<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"has-black-color has-text-color has-link-color wp-elements-15\" style=\"font-size:18px\"><strong>USD\/JPY:\u00a0<\/strong>En\u00a0<strong>155.88<\/strong>, arriba\u00a0<strong>0,11%<\/strong>. Las declaraciones de la primera ministra Sanae Takaichi, en las que suger\u00eda que un yen m\u00e1s d\u00e9bil beneficia a las exportaciones, redujeron a\u00fan m\u00e1s las expectativas del mercado sobre una subida de tipos a corto plazo por parte del Banco de Jap\u00f3n.\u00a0<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:40px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-black-color has-text-color has-link-color wp-elements-16 wp-block-paragraph\" style=\"font-size:18px\"><strong>3. Metales preciosos y materias primas<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-black-color has-text-color has-link-color wp-elements-17 wp-block-paragraph\" style=\"font-size:18px\"><strong>Metales preciosos<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li class=\"has-black-color has-text-color has-link-color wp-elements-18\" style=\"font-size:18px\"><strong>Oro al contado (XAUUSD):<\/strong>\u00a0En\u00a0<strong>4979,33 d\u00f3lares estadounidenses por onza<\/strong>, recuper\u00e1ndose\u00a0<strong>0,66%<\/strong>\u00a0intrad\u00eda. Despu\u00e9s de experimentar la mayor ca\u00edda en un solo d\u00eda de su historia reciente, el oro est\u00e1 experimentando un rebote de sobreventa, con el\u00a0<strong>5.000 d\u00f3lares estadounidenses<\/strong>\u00a0El nivel se perfila como una defensa macropsicol\u00f3gica clave.\u00a0<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"has-black-color has-text-color has-link-color wp-elements-19\" style=\"font-size:18px\"><strong>Plata al contado (XAGUSD):<\/strong>\u00a0En\u00a0<strong>85,0932 d\u00f3lares estadounidenses por onza<\/strong>, abajo\u00a0<strong>0,27%<\/strong>. Tras una volatilidad extrema, la plata se est\u00e1 consolidando en niveles t\u00e9cnicos elevados a medida que se intensifica la pugna entre la demanda industrial y la demanda de activos refugio.\u00a0<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-black-color has-text-color has-link-color wp-elements-20 wp-block-paragraph\" style=\"font-size:18px\"><strong>Productos b\u00e1sicos<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li class=\"has-black-color has-text-color has-link-color wp-elements-21\" style=\"font-size:18px\"><strong>Petr\u00f3leo crudo WTI (XTIUSD):<\/strong>\u00a0En\u00a0<strong>63,88 d\u00f3lares por barril<\/strong>, abajo\u00a0<strong>0,09%<\/strong>. A medida que las primas de riesgo geopol\u00edtico se desvanecieron r\u00e1pidamente, los precios del petr\u00f3leo retrocedieron por debajo de los\u00a0<strong>USD 64<\/strong>\u00a0nivel en busca de un m\u00ednimo a corto plazo.\u00a0<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:40px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-black-color has-text-color has-link-color wp-elements-22 wp-block-paragraph\" style=\"font-size:18px\"><strong>4. Activos digitales y macrodin\u00e1mica<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li class=\"has-black-color has-text-color has-link-color wp-elements-23\" style=\"font-size:18px\"><strong>Bitcoin (BTCUSD):\u00a0<\/strong>En\u00a0<strong>75.890 d\u00f3lares estadounidenses<\/strong>, recuper\u00e1ndose\u00a0<strong>0,30%<\/strong>. Despu\u00e9s de romperse abajo\u00a0<strong>80.000 d\u00f3lares estadounidenses<\/strong>, Los activos especulativos han mostrado una mayor sensibilidad a los cambios en las condiciones de liquidez del d\u00f3lar.\u00a0<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"has-black-color has-text-color has-link-color wp-elements-24\" style=\"font-size:18px\"><strong>Ethereum (ETHUSD):\u00a0<\/strong>En\u00a0<strong>USD 2.243,6<\/strong>, arriba\u00a0<strong>0,58%<\/strong>. Respaldado por compras t\u00e9cnicas, ETH se ha estabilizado cerca de\u00a0<strong>USD 2.200<\/strong>\u00a0nivel de apoyo, aunque los indicadores de fuerza relativa sugieren que se mantiene en una postura de seguimiento d\u00e9bil.\u00a0<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:40px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-black-color has-text-color has-link-color wp-elements-25 wp-block-paragraph\" style=\"font-size:18px\"><strong>5. El tema de hoy<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li class=\"has-black-color has-text-color has-link-color wp-elements-26\" style=\"font-size:18px\"><strong>Nueva Zelanda:<\/strong>\u00a0Variaci\u00f3n del empleo (trimestral)\u00a0<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"has-black-color has-text-color has-link-color wp-elements-27\" style=\"font-size:18px\"><strong>Nueva Zelanda:<\/strong>\u00a0Tasa de desempleo\u00a0<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"has-black-color has-text-color has-link-color wp-elements-28\" style=\"font-size:18px\"><strong>Eurozona:<\/strong>\u00a0Estimaci\u00f3n del IPC b\u00e1sico (en comparaci\u00f3n interanual)\u00a0<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"has-black-color has-text-color has-link-color wp-elements-29\" style=\"font-size:18px\"><strong>Eurozona:<\/strong>\u00a0Estimaci\u00f3n del IPC Flash (interanual)\u00a0<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"has-black-color has-text-color has-link-color wp-elements-30\" style=\"font-size:18px\"><strong>Estados Unidos:<\/strong>\u00a0Cambio en el empleo no agr\u00edcola seg\u00fan ADP\u00a0<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"has-black-color has-text-color has-link-color wp-elements-31\" style=\"font-size:18px\"><strong>Estados Unidos:<\/strong>\u00a0Servicios ISM PMI\u00a0<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:40px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>On February 4, 2026, global financial markets were once again thrown into sharp volatility following a heavyweight nomination by the Trump administration. With the nomination of the more \u201chawkish-leaning\u201d Kevin Warsh to succeed the soon-to-depart Jerome Powell, market confidence in the future policy path of the Federal Reserve has been shaken.&nbsp; Despite the U.S. January [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":9,"featured_media":3838,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"ocean_front_end_style_editor":"no","ocean_post_layout":"","ocean_both_sidebars_style":"","ocean_both_sidebars_content_width":0,"ocean_both_sidebars_sidebars_width":0,"ocean_sidebar":"","ocean_second_sidebar":"","ocean_disable_margins":"enable","ocean_add_body_class":"","ocean_shortcode_before_top_bar":"","ocean_shortcode_after_top_bar":"","ocean_shortcode_before_header":"","ocean_shortcode_after_header":"","ocean_has_shortcode":"","ocean_shortcode_after_title":"","ocean_shortcode_before_footer_widgets":"","ocean_shortcode_after_footer_widgets":"","ocean_shortcode_before_footer_bottom":"","ocean_shortcode_after_footer_bottom":"","ocean_display_top_bar":"default","ocean_display_header":"default","ocean_header_style":"","ocean_center_header_left_menu":"","ocean_custom_header_template":"","ocean_custom_logo":0,"ocean_custom_retina_logo":0,"ocean_custom_logo_max_width":0,"ocean_custom_logo_tablet_max_width":0,"ocean_custom_logo_mobile_max_width":0,"ocean_custom_logo_max_height":0,"ocean_custom_logo_tablet_max_height":0,"ocean_custom_logo_mobile_max_height":0,"ocean_header_custom_menu":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_family":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_subset":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_size":0,"ocean_menu_typo_font_size_tablet":0,"ocean_menu_typo_font_size_mobile":0,"ocean_menu_typo_font_size_unit":"px","ocean_menu_typo_font_weight":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_weight_tablet":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_weight_mobile":"","ocean_menu_typo_transform":"","ocean_menu_typo_transform_tablet":"","ocean_menu_typo_transform_mobile":"","ocean_menu_typo_line_height":0,"ocean_menu_typo_line_height_tablet":0,"ocean_menu_typo_line_height_mobile":0,"ocean_menu_typo_line_height_unit":"","ocean_menu_typo_spacing":0,"ocean_menu_typo_spacing_tablet":0,"ocean_menu_typo_spacing_mobile":0,"ocean_menu_typo_spacing_unit":"","ocean_menu_link_color":"","ocean_menu_link_color_hover":"","ocean_menu_link_color_active":"","ocean_menu_link_background":"","ocean_menu_link_hover_background":"","ocean_menu_link_active_background":"","ocean_menu_social_links_bg":"","ocean_menu_social_hover_links_bg":"","ocean_menu_social_links_color":"","ocean_menu_social_hover_links_color":"","ocean_disable_title":"default","ocean_disable_heading":"default","ocean_post_title":"","ocean_post_subheading":"","ocean_post_title_style":"","ocean_post_title_background_color":"","ocean_post_title_background":0,"ocean_post_title_bg_image_position":"","ocean_post_title_bg_image_attachment":"","ocean_post_title_bg_image_repeat":"","ocean_post_title_bg_image_size":"","ocean_post_title_height":0,"ocean_post_title_bg_overlay":0.5,"ocean_post_title_bg_overlay_color":"","ocean_disable_breadcrumbs":"default","ocean_breadcrumbs_color":"","ocean_breadcrumbs_separator_color":"","ocean_breadcrumbs_links_color":"","ocean_breadcrumbs_links_hover_color":"","ocean_display_footer_widgets":"default","ocean_display_footer_bottom":"default","ocean_custom_footer_template":"","_glsr_average":0,"_glsr_ranking":0,"_glsr_reviews":0,"ocean_post_oembed":"","ocean_post_self_hosted_media":"","ocean_post_video_embed":"","ocean_link_format":"","ocean_link_format_target":"self","ocean_quote_format":"","ocean_quote_format_link":"post","ocean_gallery_link_images":"on","ocean_gallery_id":[],"footnotes":"","_members_access_role":[],"_members_access_error":""},"categories":[8],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3817","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-english-news","entry","has-media"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.amillex.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3817","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.amillex.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.amillex.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.amillex.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/9"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.amillex.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3817"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.amillex.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3817\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":3818,"href":"https:\/\/www.amillex.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3817\/revisions\/3818"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.amillex.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/3838"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.amillex.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3817"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.amillex.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3817"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.amillex.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3817"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}